Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Take the high road, Karen

It's easy to get upset when duty calls.

 

[anthonyj]

Huge volume on the the $400c for next week. Also open interest dropped meaning MM bought to close? Hmm

 

[lklundin]

They only upgrade some of the stalls. Thats asking for trouble between S/X drivers and 3 drivers. At the rate they are currently upgrading the stalls, it will take a year before the suc network is useful for model 3 drivers, unless model 3 can supercharge over the type 2 connector. I expect next gen s/x to also have ccs2 natively, so soon type2 only s/x will be a minority.

I foresee Tesla's CCS connector installation ramp up, taking them straight into CCS connector installation hell.

Seriously, if Tesla does not have a plan for having Model 3 Supercharging supported in Europe as the Model 3s arrive, there will be significant complaining - with some prospective buyers deferring their orders.

 

[defc0n]

Two more trades that were flagged as what I'm assuming are part of this trader's strategy:

1,110 put options expiring 1/11 at 332.5 strike (2.26 ratio over open interest)
1,533 put options expiring 1/11 at 335.0 strike (1.27 ratio over OI)

Hard to know whether this is a bearish or bullish trade without knowing whether these puts and calls were bought or sold.

Max pain of 325 tomorrow. Feels like Tesla could drop big news anytime soon though, particularly on the S and X front.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Max pain of 325 tomorrow. Feels like Tesla could drop big news anytime soon though, particularly on the S and X front.

I'm starting to get antsy about having these covered call hedges. Had intended to close them out by next Friday at the latest, but that's starting to feel risky.

 

[KarenRei]

I foresee Tesla's CCS connector installation ramp up, taking them straight into CCS connector installation hell.

Seriously, if Tesla does not have a plan for having Model 3 Supercharging supported in Europe as the Model 3s arrive, there will be significant complaining - with some prospective buyers deferring their orders.

Agreed. Same story as with sales / service. They've been keeping the capital burn low to return nice profits and free cash flow. But this is of course the reason why most of us see Tesla's profits as at best an unfortunate necessity (to fight activist short campaigns), and at worst a big distraction from needed spending.

 

[Tslynk67]

Agreed. Same story as with sales / service. They've been keeping the capital burn low to return nice profits and free cash flow. But this is of course the reason why most of us see Tesla's profits as at best an unfortunate necessity (to fight activist short campaigns), and at worst a big distraction from needed spending.

As I understood it, much less CAPEX in 2019, so perhaps some leeway to make some more investment there without harming the profit too much?

 

[jbcarioca]

Thanks...8k NM range...yikes! While I would love to be the pilot for EM I don't think I could do the leg length's required!

There is a nice pilot relaxation area/bed on most G650/ER. Mostly they tend to fly with three pilots, generally two typed and one 'cruise co-pilot' who's often not type-rated. These are not rules, but almost always are provided. FWIW, I've flown trans-Atlantic a few times, but always small jets, thus passing by @KarenRei territory, normally Keflavik.

Somehow I think this trip may pass in the annals as one of Elon's best ever!

 

[Lucky_Man]

No really. That guy is dangerous is teaching stupid kids how to incorrectly work on EV's handling batteries and HV systems carelessly.

I worked on all my cars and I am all for that. There is nothing really to work on our cars anyway other than suspension, brakes, wheels and tires which is the same as any other car.

That guy is worse than shorts the majority of his subscribers and not pro Tesla and you can easily tell by their comments. Take a look and see how many "Tesla is going bankrupt" you fine. What percentage of the population wants to diy a salvage Tesla anyway? I bet you it is insignificant.

I work for an EV manufacturing and just torquing something not to spec can be catastrophic. He thinks is all fun and games until someone gets hurt.

OT - Obligatory Safety Post:

Please stay alive. Even if we disagree on many topics, I still value your comments.

Speaking as an ex-electrical 1st-year apprentice, I hope anyone who gets the urge to tinker with an EV [or anything electrically charged] will spend a few minutes on the google machine watching ARC BLAST videos before they start.

A sample [graphic images warning]:

Even the electrical test equipment can kill you, if used incorrectly. This one's from a test equipment manufacturer:
Arc flash and arc blast

K. Rant over. I love you all.

 

[lklundin]

Hard to know whether this is a bearish or bullish trade without knowing whether these puts and calls were bought or sold.

I feel very ignorant asking this, but wouldn't these contracts exist only if they were sold by one party and bought by another?

 

[KarenRei]

No new CR satisfaction report yet, but we do have this from Experian:

The future of EVs: “greener” pastures - Experian Insights

EV Customers Show Propensity for Loyalty

Once dealers have customers in an EV, there’s a good chance they get them back again in the future. Electric Vehicle customers are showing early signs of being a highly loyal customer segment. When EV customers return to market, 62 percent buy another EV.

Tesla owners show an even higher make loyalty rate than EV customers as a whole. More than 4 in 5 Tesla customers — 80.5 percent – buy or lease another Tesla when they return to market. Tesla has the highest level of make loyalty in the industry, ahead of Subaru at 72.1 percent and Ford at 72 percent.

 

[Intl Professor]

It's a deeper racial hatred.

Reinforced by bad history, the worst kind.

 

[lklundin]

Agreed. Same story as with sales / service. They've been keeping the capital burn low to return nice profits and free cash flow. But this is of course the reason why most of us see Tesla's profits as at best an unfortunate necessity (to fight activist short campaigns), and at worst a big distraction from needed spending.

What kind of technical background does an electrician have to have in order to perform the CCS connector installation?

Unless you need a highly specialized electrician, many different ones could do it, each in their local area in a short span of time without the need for much travel.

 

[mongo]

I feel very ignorant asking this, but wouldn't these contracts exist only if they were sold by one party and bought by another?

But was it one sell and multiple buyers, or one buyer and multiple sellers. That indicates the thought process of the whale.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I feel very ignorant asking this, but wouldn't these contracts exist only if they were sold by one party and bought by another?

Yes -- however, the volume data doesn't tell us if the contracts were bought to close, bought to open, sold to close, or sold to open.

EDIT: Also, who is doing the opening and/or closing is another important factor that we don't know -- if it's an option writer, well that's entirely different from an option purchaser. A writer buying to close call options is a bullish signal (thinks stock will go up, ergo value of contracts will increase); whereas a purchaser selling to close is a bearish signal (thinks stock will go down, ergo value of contracts will decrease).

SECOND EDIT: Screwed up some stuff in the above paragraph lol. Closing positions subbed in for buying / selling.

 

[Hogfighter]

This thread has become nearly unusable.

I know that having two threads was more work for the mods, but at least limiting the conversation and having boundaries is better than 30 pages of randomness every day.

Please bring back the market action thread!

 

[jhm]

Here's my guess as to what an ideal 'range table' and range based naming scheme of the new variants would look like:

Standard Range

Mid Range

Long Range

Very Long Range

[TD2] Model 3 range [/TD2] [TD2] pack size [/TD2] [TD2] Model S/X range [/TD2] [TD2] pack size [/TD2] [TD2] 220 miles (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] 55 kWh (est.) [/TD2] [TD2]   [/TD2] [TD2]   [/TD2] [TD2] 264 miles [/TD2] [TD2] 67 kWh [/TD2] [TD2]   [/TD2] [TD2]   [/TD2] [TD2] 310 miles [/TD2] [TD2] 80 kWh [/TD2] [TD2] 310 miles (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] 90 kWh (est.) [/TD2] [TD2]   [/TD2] [TD2]   [/TD2] [TD2] 405 miles (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] 120 kWh (est.) [/TD2]

Note how smooth the upgrade path from the Model 3 to the S/X becomes with such a unified naming scheme, but the S/X also maintains its 'premium upgrade' nature by not offering 'Mid Range' and 'Standard Range' options.

This naming scheme allows Tesla to offer 'Long Range' options both for the 3 and the S/X, while the battery pack sizes are different: 80 kWh for the 3, ~90 kWh -ish for the S/X.

Also note that by changing the marketing to "range based" Tesla puts legacy OEMs under pressure from two directions:

• Tesla has the largest battery packs that OEMs have trouble keeping up with
• Tesla has the highest efficiency EV powertrain that OEMs have trouble keeping up with

For an OEM to be able to directly compete with Tesla they'll have to match both pack size and efficiency.

I like the 'very long range' name, as it directly addresses range anxiety, which still exists and is prominent in many ICE vehicle owners. Tesla might have different plans though.

Nice framework. Have you thought about where the new Roadster would fit into this?

 

[cheshire cat]

What kind of technical background does an electrician have to have in order to perform the CCS connector installation?

Unless you need a highly specialized electrician, many different ones could do it, each in their local area in a short span of time without the need for much travel.

Not unless as a reputable company you are prepared to carry the can for a wide variety of genius to village idiot spread across the globe! It can be worrying to be connected to a charger ( not Tesla ) with water dripping from the cable along with several hundred volts, I've done it. I wonder how many mistakes can be made on a supercharger by your friendly local spark?

 

[loco]

OFF TOPIC

There is a nice pilot relaxation area/bed on most G650/ER. Mostly they tend to fly with three pilots, generally two typed and one 'cruise co-pilot' who's often not type-rated. These are not rules, but almost always are provided. FWIW, I've flown trans-Atlantic a few times, but always small jets, thus passing by @KarenRei territory, normally Keflavik.

Sorry for the off-topic, but this is getting very interesting (again). GLF6 is not approved for single-pilot operations like many smaller jets are. Are you sure a non type rated pilot is of any use? As in the AC if effectively flown by one pilot if the other one goes to sleep.

 

[Fact Checking]

Nice framework. Have you thought about where the new Roadster would fit into this?

I don't think it fits too well - 200 kWh and 620 miles of range creates its own category.

Not will the Roadster 2's actual sales matter too much - it's more of a marketing tool IMHO than a regular product. Its whole point will be to be awesome on as many levels as possible.