Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Am sure people will buy Rivian thinking it's the next Tesla. So, I want to get in at the IPO price because it's going to go up at least for a few days until reality sinks in. Any idea how one can get in at the IPO price?

All about risk/reward. If you think Rivian is going to hit 100 billion valuation in a couple days.........good luck?

I think they clearly overpriced it and it's going to drop like a rock first day of trading. I'm actually pretty shocked any investment bank would want to be involved with this IPO. They do not want black eyes on their resume of taking company's through IPO.

 

[hobbes]

Wow, first pre-production Y from Giga Texas!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431366751388946437

 

[phantasms]

Soooo 4680s? lol [yes I’ve heard everything on the subject to date]

 

[EVMeister]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431360363963027457

It’s happening…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431365278819135492

Wow, first pre-production Y from Giga Texas!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431366751388946437

I know it's exciting, but does it need to be repeated multiple times?

 

[insaneoctane]

Hypothetical question since we think diversification is over rated....which seems more likely over the next 5 years?

Tesla able to justify it's market cap to $3.5T
Rivian able to justify it's market cap to $400B

Both of those represent 5x

Place your bets!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431522886456651778

 

[Singuy]

Hypothetical question since we think diversification is over rated....which seems more likely over the next 5 years?

Tesla able to justify it's market cap to $3.5T
Rivian able to justify it's market cap to $400B

Both of those represent 5x

Place your bets!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431522886456651778

Neither unless interest rate stays at 0%. Negative Nancy here just being realistic.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Am sure people will buy Rivian thinking it's the next Tesla. So, I want to get in at the IPO price because it's going to go up at least for a few days until reality sinks in. Any idea how one can get in at the IPO price?

Rivian will probably do exactly the same as HOOD.

HOOD Interactive Stock Chart | Robinhood Markets, Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance

At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[insaneoctane]

Even the extra $2500 for union built cars is questionable legally I think, US government cant target 1 company on any incentives or taxes.

They are throwing other regulatory problems at tesla and could prevent tesla from rolling out FSD until others catch up.

tesla isnt anywhere near a monopoly selling a few percent of USA's vehicles

They can creatively target Tesla. That's exactly what the BS union built verbiage is. By having low volume caps they can easily target Tesla. They could do low volume caps per model that would unfairly target Tesla since Tesla has 4 models vs legacy has hundreds. They can regulate number and/or type of sensors for autonomous vehicles....Don't underestimate the creativity of lobbyist funded politicians!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Hypothetical question since we think diversification is over rated....which seems more likely over the next 5 years?

Tesla able to justify it's market cap to $3.5T
Rivian able to justify it's market cap to $400B

Both of those represent 5x

Place your bets!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431522886456651778

Rivian just have the hardest to do, yet. Mass produce an EV and become profitable. The chance of success or Rivian went from 1% to 5% with all the private investments to maybe 10% with an IPO with that much money to raise and fix their production and assembly lines within 2 years, maybe.

You can’t lose all your money if you got all in with TSLA. You could in 2019 during production hell with Model 3 ramp up.
You still can lose all your money investing into Rivian, IMO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Neither unless interest rate stays at 0%. Negative Nancy here just being realistic.

If you believe in the renewable energy movement reaching the mass inflection point by 2025, then you'll see a huge deflation event happen over the next 4-5 years upon which interest rates will have to stay low to offset that. Won't be 0%, but the days of anything about 1.5-2% are long gone with what's about to happen over the next 10 years.

 

[jw934]

Wow, first pre-production Y from Giga Texas!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431366751388946437

Could also be Fremont cars brought in to test the line.

EDIT: As per @StarFoxisDown! , drone photos and Austin staff confirmed those cars in the photo were produced in Austin.

 

[Singuy]

If you believe in the renewable energy movement reaching the mass inflection point by 2025, then you'll see a huge deflation event happen over the next 4-5 years upon which interest rates will have to stay low to offset that. Won't be 0%, but the days of anything about 1.5-2% are long gone with what's about to happen over the next 10 years.

Sure but not by 2025. Not enough batteries to cause any noticeable deflation. Maybe by 2028 or 2030.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Could also be Fremont cars brought in to test the line. Someone tweeted that the first production cars off a line are usually for test purpose and typically would not have the company badge on the hood. Someone else said that there are no staff in the photo also suggest this line is not in production status when the photo was taken.

We've had multiple people that do the drone videos over Texas state that it was first test production car made there in Texas. Those guys actually talk to the workers there on site. We can probably stop with the "could be made at fremont and brought over"

Also, the "stage" you're talking about (just frame assembly, no badges, etc..) already happened at Giga Texas a while back.


Though having said all that, we don't know how much tweaking and work still has to go on the lines. I don't doubt that this was fully made in Giga Texas. But they could still have to go back and do a lot of recalibration to the lines after these first couple of test vehicles.

 

[jw934]

Rivian will probably do exactly the same as HOOD.

On the other hand, it can also do a COIN (Coinbase) where it went up $100+ in the first hour on April 14, 2021 then dropped sharply and never looked back after that hour.

 

[DFibRL8R]

As a physician who has actually seen a bezoar in vivo, I can tell you it looked nothing like an Amazon King...

Weird to have a bald bezoar methinks!

 

[AudubonB]

As a physician who has actually seen a bezoar in vivo, I can tell you it looked nothing like an Amazon King...

Finish your sentence, if you please. I am going to need full context in order to learn proper usage of that verb, ie, “….like an amazonking WHAT.” ????
Maybe it’s just me, but I haven’t amazonked for quite a while.

 

[AudubonB]

I know it's exciting, but does it need to be repeated multiple times?

Serious weekend post, all:
Let’s be careful we’re not assuming that a vehicle brought to the factory floor in order to coordinate, align and so forth the production line is one that was indeed produced there.
I might suggest that caution dictate we assume the less dramatic answer until there is good evidence to suggest the more exciting one.
I see that was answered above…is that rock-solid evidence? Interested in hearing others’ thoughts.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Serious weekend post, all:
Let’s be careful we’re not assuming that a vehicle brought to the factory floor in order to coordinate, align and so forth the production line is one that was indeed produced there.
I might suggest that caution dictate we assume the less dramatic answer until there is good evidence to suggest the more exciting one.
I see that was answered above…is that rock-solid evidence? Interested in hearing others’ thoughts.

Here one of the drone video operators talking about knowing that the crews inside are producing test vehicles

"What a great week of productivity at Giga Texas! As you can see from the parking lot and the flights, a very good portion of crew is working INSIDE and producing test vehicles as I type this (yes we have proof but can't share the images yet)!"

In the past, multiple times, they found out what's going on inside the factory, stages of construction, what certain parts of the factory are for......from the actual onsite workers themselves.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Serious weekend post, all:
Let’s be careful we’re not assuming that a vehicle brought to the factory floor in order to coordinate, align and so forth the production line is one that was indeed produced there.
I might suggest that caution dictate we assume the less dramatic answer until there is good evidence to suggest the more exciting one.
I see that was answered above…is that rock-solid evidence? Interested in hearing others’ thoughts.

These drone operators and the folks who comb over the footage are an observant bunch. I don’t think they’d miss a model Y waltzing in through the front door. Unless the car was snuck in through an underground tunnel I think we can safely say it was produced in Giga Texas.

Then again, maybe Boring Co has been really busy

 

[mrmage]

Hypothetical question since we think diversification is over rated....which seems more likely over the next 5 years?

Tesla able to justify it's market cap to $3.5T
Rivian able to justify it's market cap to $400B

Both of those represent 5x

Place your bets!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431522886456651778

In the next 2 years, I think the chances that Rivian is below 1/2 its IPO price is equal to Tesla above 2x today's price. For anyone who thinks that chance is only 10%, I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale...