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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Thanks for the blast from the past. I wonder why we no longer see him spouting nonsense nowadays. You can feel the jealousy from his comments. And the comment about Neptune and Saturne shows so much ignorance. There are many good scientific reasons why Mars is a much better candidate for human first planetary exploration than those two gaseous planets.
Funny thing is he actually had some positive things to say about $TSLA last year....

 
If you recall back to the S&P inclusion event, we learned that the last 10 minutes of trading are when many of the passive institutions make their trades. This is all included in the "closing cross" that is essentially an auction event that gets recorded on the final tick after all the buys and sells are matched.
I like to keep an eye on daily volume as well as volume at the closing cross and today's closing cross volume was above average. Additionally I remember watching Rob Maurer's livestream on inclusion day and he was able to see the closing cross trade imbalance a few minutes before close and unfortunately due to the livestream he was unable to place a quick trade to profit from the imbalance.
 
To be fair, VW CEO Herbert Diess seems to be pushing his behemoth about as fast as he can short of losing his job. Did he get software and OTA updates right first time? Nope.

Continue to push the envelope, Herbert - we need more credible EV companies!

Daimler and BMW continue to underestimate the degree of sea change(s) that is passing them by:
  • electrification
  • storage (where's your ramped up supply gonna come from?)
  • software on wheels
  • AI and autonomy
  • cut out the dealership middle$
  • etc.
ha, VW could fail tomorrow and I'd toast the demise. About as scummy a company to its core as there is in Auto. They make GM blush.
 
The daily FINRA* report is out: only 37% of todays trading was done by FINRA-reporting entities (mostly Retail brokers). And only 40% of those trades were reported as "short sales".

Today was all about that Whale accumulating, and the shorts fell on their own sword starting at 3:05 pm, wasting huge capital only to see the SP bought back easily right to just past the day's VWAP.

This is going to be a good Fall. :D

Cheers!

*Let me know if you are unable to open this FINRA file from outside Canada (with this localized URL, you may have to change the country ID to match your location)
 

On the video review, they seem so afraid to mention Tesla CT for some reason. That said the ride looks great. Appears UI still needs work. Can’t wait for these two to go head2head

Motortrend, by saying the Rivian is the first EV pickup to actually hit the market, had me wanting one to fill the gap until I can take delivery of a Cybertruck. I actually think it will be a good vehicle as long as it's reliable which is a big question mark. So, I looked at the price to see how much I might lose on resale value when my Cybertruck came up. But the price just said "$67,500-$73,000 (est)". How can it be the first pickup to hit the market when they don't even know the price? When I buy it can my cashier's check just say "around $67,500 to $73,000"? So I guess it's not "on the market" yet.

Then I realized the hard part is mass production. When could I actually buy one? The final straw that completely collapsed my excitement was watching the MT staff operate the touchscreen. Maybe one of you early Model S owners can comment but it looked to me to have more lag than the original 2012 Model S that drove some owners crazy. It looked like the reviewers did everything they could hide the screen lag but it still came through when scrolling and zooming out on the map (3:15 on the video). When the center screen operates every function as it does on Tesla's, it's imperative that the screen is responsive! Maybe they will have a new computer in there by the time they make the first deliveries but this seems like something they would already be on top of. After all, Tesla came out with the Model 3 in late 2017 and the screen was super responsive. So they have had plenty of time to solve that problem.

I'm not trying to bash as I want Rivian to succeed, it just seems like they have a huge uphill battle ahead of them. I don't have a reservation so I don't think it's realistic to think I could get one before my Cybertruck is ready (even though my reservation is estimated to be 40K+ in line). It looks like Rivian already has a Service Center in Bellevue, WA where we picked up both of our Model 3's, only an hour or so away. Maybe I'll put a $1000 reservation deposit down and see what happens?
 
Meaning we should expect a lot more buying of TSLA over the months/years until the TSLA numbers approach AAPL.

Source:
AAPL: ETFs with Apple Inc. (AAPL) Exposure | ETF Database
TSLA: ETFs with Tesla Inc (TSLA) Exposure | ETF Database

Update on the numbers:
Nov 17, 2020: 206 ETF with exposure to TSLA with 105 of them as top 15 holdings
Jan 7, 2021: 237 ETFs with exposure to TSLA with 149 of them in the top 15.
Aug 30, 2021: 294 ETFs with exposure to TSLA with 154 of them in their top 15 stocks
--> Net 1/7 to 8/30: 57 new ETFs holding TSLA in the past 34 weeks and 2 days, or more than 1 per week.

57 is slightly higher than AAPL:
Jan 7, 2021: 392 ETF with exposure to AAPL and 209 of them having it within its top 15 holdings
Aug 30, 2021: 434 ETF with exposure to AAPL and 240 of them having it within its top 15 holdings
Net is 48 increase over the same period.

Looking at the past two weeks as TSLA rose from $655 to $735:
1630447963091.png

As per the Way Back Machine:
* 2 net new ETFs started holding TSLA during that time, and
* 8 net ETFs increased their TSLA holdings to become part of their top 15
 
Owning LG Energy Solutions gives Tesla tons of leverage with other suppliers,

The counter argument is that LG Energy solutions is more horizontal integration, resulting in a likely culture and technology clash.
Tesla has the Battery Day strategy that is a plan to reamp up cell volumes.

Unless Tesla is going to apply the Battery Day strategy to some LG factories reusing some equipment,and changing work practices, I can't see a big lift in production rates at those factories... LG would also have to own some IP worth acquiring..

I think other car companies should purchase a complete platform from Tesla, Battery, Motres, Software, FSD, I do hope 1 or 2 Japanese car makers will eventually do that. For the rest I think pride will dampen their survival instincts.

The alternatives for more vertical integration within the existing car and energy business are;-
  • Chips
  • Solar cells
  • Tires
I would rather see Tesla mae acquisitions to require new IP and new capabilities, provided there is a prospect that those acquisitions can improve products or lower costs down the track...

In terms of the (broader) mission there is one other untapped opportunity, I linked information on the latest RethinkX report here:-
TSLA, biodiversity collapse & climate change

That covers Precision Fermentation which is a new way of making foods, likely to disrupt some traditional farming, in particular the Dairy Industry...

As referenced by RethinkX, the disruption of farming will free up a lot of land for rewilding, and tree plantations,

The other advantages of Precision Formation is lowering are lowering the cost of food and creating healthier processed food.

So Precision Fermentation is good for the planet, will lower the cost of food, make food more abundant and improve human health.
The downside is putting a lot of farmers out of business, but that is likely to be a gradual process.

What I would add to the RethinkX proposal is Hydroponics. Hydroponics can act as a seasonal or controlled load, allowing a Renewable Energy overbuild which lowers energy prices... by smoothing out supply and demand.

Hydroponics can also act as a form of accelerated carbon capture, and the captured carbon can be locked up long term, and/or used in various ways..

All of these "Industrial Food" technologies will also be very useful/essential on Mars..

A lot of the Precision Fermentation projects seem early stage, one of the very interesting protein sugars is shipping in a soft drink today.
Most Insulin production is also done this way...

Industrial Food production is way off the track of the current businesses, but I think broadly compatible with the mission, and after reading the RethinkX report, I think success in this area is a very important part of combating Climate Change.

Please reply in the thread, I linked...
 
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Motortrend, by saying the Rivian is the first EV pickup to actually hit the market, had me wanting one to fill the gap until I can take delivery of a Cybertruck. I actually think it will be a good vehicle as long as it's reliable which is a big question mark. So, I looked at the price to see how much I might lose on resale value when my Cybertruck came up. But the price just said "$67,500-$73,000 (est)". How can it be the first pickup to hit the market when they don't even know the price? When I buy it can my cashier's check just say "around $67,500 to $73,000"? So I guess it's not "on the market" yet.

Then I realized the hard part is mass production. When could I actually buy one? The final straw that completely collapsed my excitement was watching the MT staff operate the touchscreen. Maybe one of you early Model S owners can comment but it looked to me to have more lag than the original 2012 Model S that drove some owners crazy. It looked like the reviewers did everything they could hide the screen lag but it still came through when scrolling and zooming out on the map (3:15 on the video). When the center screen operates every function as it does on Tesla's, it's imperative that the screen is responsive! Maybe they will have a new computer in there by the time they make the first deliveries but this seems like something they would already be on top of. After all, Tesla came out with the Model 3 in late 2017 and the screen was super responsive. So they have had plenty of time to solve that problem.

I'm not trying to bash as I want Rivian to succeed, it just seems like they have a huge uphill battle ahead of them. I don't have a reservation so I don't think it's realistic to think I could get one before my Cybertruck is ready (even though my reservation is estimated to be 40K+ in line). It looks like Rivian already has a Service Center in Bellevue, WA where we picked up both of our Model 3's, only an hour or so away. Maybe I'll put a $1000 reservation deposit down and see what happens?
Rivian's web site says:
Prices shown are an estimate and are not due at this time. We'll contact you to confirm your configuration as we approach production and begin to accept orders.

I agree it's not yet on the market.
 
Wait... Was that supposed to be the first Viking funeral with a Tesla?

View attachment 703780

Sounds like it was his 5th: