Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

paywalled, so pls a bit more

Not much to see in that article. Just thoughts of what the administration might want to do. Nothing concrete.

 

[Accident]

Looks like the MMs are aggressive today

Everything is red today QQQ -0.70%, SPY -0.50%, ARKK -3%

 

[Krugerrand]

Trippin' Trip sticking it to Gordon the moron

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435378814884921346

Somebody who can out-rant Mr. Gordon. That’s a special skill.

 

[generalenthu]

Interesting juncture we are at, psychologically speaking. After the humongous volatility going into and after the S&P addition and a correction into the 500s afterwards, I believe Tesla settled in to a more normal trading regime that's not driven by index funds, gamma squeeze, short covering or any such other short term items. Q1 was for the most part, the end of this.

Personally, added my first tranche of high cost basis shares when the then awesome Q1 delivery numbers came out. In the 690s.

Since then Tesla made a high around current prices, another round trip to the 500s and after phenomenal couple of quarters, we are knocking again at the all time high of this new regime, at ~760. All this is with a fantastic macro background. Once we are past this level its blue sky for this regime. While we might spend time here for a bit like @jhm says, the kettle will eventually come to a boil. There won't be much of an option when q3 deliveries and financials are released in October.

Given that, I have become substantially more cautious in my call selling. The very low short term IV doesn't incentivize this either. Looking forward to the next few weeks.

Edit: And we take a 10 point dump in the time I took to finish writing this. Perfect.

 

[Thumper]

new-blow-to-chip-supplies-as-malaysia-plants-shut-for-a-week

Bloomberg reports Covid problems at a Maylasian chipmaker.

 

[Todd Burch]

Um, does somebody want the stock price at $750 this week? lol.

 

[Todd Burch]

all autos down
View attachment 706651

I don't think that's the reason. We were dropped right to $750, where we were capped yesterday. This has options targets written all over it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

all autos down
View attachment 706651

This argument holds no weight to me. Those auto's didn't just post record sales data. The drop and continual capping had nothing to do with macros.

 

[goinfraftw]

Almost everything is down.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Since we're clowning the class clown today...Here is one of my favs of him recommending shorting $TSLA even after admitting he's been wrong.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435500788017598469

 

[Krugerrand]

Once again I have spent exorbitant amounts of time calculating (by hand) this next quarters’ production and delivery number. Like so much time it’s not funny.

This is my whisper number - *drum roll*:

Eighty-three thousand

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Should be a fun next 4 or 5 trading days. MM's want us at $750 this week. Next week's max pain is so low it's not really in play. Or is it?

Let's see how low they can push. Targeting Oct 8 & 15 calls if we get any major dip to <$735. Looking to hit some homeruns buying on low IV and then catch the IV surge after 3Q deliveries are announced and shorting unwinds.

Maybe buy next Thursday-ish if the algos try to push down closer the the $680 max pain for 9/17?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Almost everything is down.

If I'm not mistaken, the CDC is reporting the highest number of new covid cases to date. 301k reported yesterday looks to be the most ever in the US. Great work Florida!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Should be a fun next 4 or 5 trading days. MM's want us at $750 this week. Next week's max pain is so low it's not really in play. Or is it?

Let's see how low they can push. Targeting Oct 8 & 15 calls if we get any major dip to <$735. Looking to hit some homeruns buying on low IV and then catch the IV surge after 3Q deliveries are announced and shorting unwinds.

Maybe buy next Thursday-ish if the algos try to push down closer the the $680 max pain for 9/17?

If you look at the updated options volume, 759 is the clear target. They're just overshooting it right now on a down day to give buffer if FOMO buying sets in towards the end of the week.

Also, considering the 200 moving day average will be above 700 by 9/17, I don't think we touch 600's again.

 

[StealthP3D]

I am picking up my wife's Model Y on Saturday! Very excited to see the differences from my 2019 Model 3P! I did not bother buying Auto-pilot

Every Tesla sold in the U.S. comes with Autopilot and Tesla's suite of automatic safety features at no extra charge. Is this different in Spain?

 

[Chenkers]

If you look at the updated options volume, 759 is the clear target. They're just overshooting it right now on a down day to give buffer if FOMO buying sets in towards the end of the week.

It's the Open Interest that counts for Friday's close, not the volume. Right now the balance point between Puts and Calls is around $740. The Options volume at prices above this indicates the balance point is likely to move up but it seems unlikely that Friday's target will get above $750. We'll have to wait for the updated OI charts over the next 2 days to get a clearer picture.

 

[Snerruc]

I know a bit about the practical aspects of solar. A friend owns a small solar installing company in NY.
He did my solar for cost as long as i would be on the roof helping.
I wanted to do it not just for that but to learn about it. I read a lot too.

To really increase solar installations they need to change a lot of the disincentives in states like NY.
1) New York put the small installer practically out of business with their regulations.
2) Many utility companies will only give rebate for system equal to 110% of usage of the previous year.
So they literally are disincentive people from utilizing their roof to create clean energy for others.
3) The other disincentive is what they pay the homeowner for electricity they produce over their usage.
In my case it s about 1/12th what they charge and it does not pay to install a larger system.
And I'm lucky. They changed the rules in NY ( and I bet elsewhere) that overproduction goes into a bank that you can only collect after 20 years!
Here's the insult to injury: You still have to live in that house to collect.
4) Infrastructure of the grid has to be improved.
This is something I know little about but I read they were having difficulties in Hawaii for example, because how many people were adding solar. The antiquated electrical delivery system wasn't able to handle the supply

Used to live on the Big Island. Most of my friends have solar. All the problems will be fixed when they install a couple of big batteries.

 

[Todd Burch]

Every Tesla sold in the U.S. comes with Autopilot and Tesla's suite of automatic safety features at no extra charge. Is this different in Spain?

Autopilot is crippled in Europe due to EU rules. For instance, I believe the maximum steering angle is (stupidly) limited, meaning Teslas cannot handle curves in the Europe as sharp as those in the US.

 

[AquaY]

Used to live on the Big Island. Most of my friends have solar. All the problems will be fixed when they install a couple of big batteries.

What I read was the problem was managing the production from all across the islands and that it could cause power surges and overwhelm the equipment.
This was several years ago and maybe the answer is batteries. I don't know

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think today's covid case number may be a massive macro red flag kids. I was counting on something in the 200k range to show we were near the top of this wave. 301k is not good.

S&P was running way too hot in the first place, now this current wave looks like it'll be pretty bad. With vaccination proceeding well*, deaths should be limited*, but it may take the market a few weeks to figure that out and see the peak of this wave.

#goodjobflorida