Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Close to topical is that new New York Governor Hochul signed into law today what she claims is the nation’s most aggressive: no passenger cars may be sold in NY State that are not zero emission from2035 onwards (fixed - thanks). If I am reading the news reports correctly, this includes light-duty vehicles (aka pickups and SUVs). That’s a darned good start.
One such link: Hochul signs law requiring zero-emission passenger vehicles by 2035

 

[Krugerrand]

Close to topical is that new New York Governor Hochul signed into law today what she claims is the nation’s most aggressive: no passenger cars may be sold in NY State that are not zero emission from2035 onwards (fixed - thanks). If I am reading the news reports correctly, this includes light-duty vehicles (aka pickups and SUVs). That’s a darned good start.
One such link: Hochul signs law requiring zero-emission passenger vehicles by 2035

It doesn’t excite me at all because the deadline is 13 years from now and I feel that’s too far down the road - a new ICE car purchased in 2034 gets to spew out toxins for another 13 years+ afterwards.

I also don’t trust or have any confidence this law will hold and won’t be rewritten at some point and the date pushed out further.

 

[2Pearls]

I know a lot of people who have bought a taycan. I guess they are established porsche fans who hate tesla, or perhaps want to be different. The taycan IS a very LOOK AT ME I AM COOL car, whereas the model S looks like a jaguar. Nice... but not trying to turn heads.
They do all complain that their charging options suck though...
I guess the real interesting thing will be what car they buy after owning a taycan for a few years.

I am now on my 4th Tesla, a Plaid, and love it. However, I am also on my 5th Porsche, a Taycan 4S and love that as well.

Unless you own both cars, please do not speculate. I can tell you from my experience, the Porsche’s are well made, handle extremely well, and drive like the sports cars they are, and, have a comfortable, not jarring ride. I will also state that my Taycan 4S has been averaging a REAL WORLD 280 miles per charge, all miles driven with a heavy foot (spirited driving enjoying on ramps and stop light shenanigans) but not always flooring it. I drive 75-80 on the highway, and have some fun every once in a while on our back roads. Is the network for charging crappy/sucks, you bet, But most of our charging (95%) is done at home overnight.

All of our Tesla’s (85, P90D, Model 3 Performance with Track software and our new Plaid) are wonderful cars as well, drive very nice, have excellent technology and a fantastic supercharger network. The Plaid is like no other car in a straight line and no other car comes close to the speed it generates at any mph. In fact, I am looking to take it to VIR and Watkins Glen soon just to see what it can do.

However, have I gotten any where close to range that Tesla suggests, not even close. My 85 was rated at 265 and if I got 180 on a 65 degree day with very little wind, I was lucky. My P90D was worse (expected), my Model 3 Performance was rated at 305 range and I was lucky to get 220 miles on a full charge in spirited driving. My Plaid is rated at 348 miles of range and I just turned 3k miles and I have been getting 250 miles per charge, But, I have also been enjoying the car like I stole it. The speed this car makes is like nothing else, especially 80-150.

I am glad and fortunate to own both along with some other ICE high performance cars that I track 3-4x per year. My cars serve very different purposes, and the Tesla’s and Taycan both provide clean emissions and loads of fun.

 

[RobDickinson]

I'm genuinely interested in who they think will be buying new fossil vehicles in the early 2030s?

 

[MC3OZ]

Digging though the Sila Nano site info I found this claim:-

https://silanano.com/news/futureofenergystorage/

In the next 5 to 10 years, we’ll see a $50 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) lithium ion (Li-ion) battery cell that’s capable of fast charging, 10,000+ cycles, 1 million+ miles, a 30 year calendar life, and produced with abundant raw materials found all around the world and recycled.

It also seems to me like the Silicon part of Tesla's battery day presentation, is very similar to the Sila Nano technology and might be lifted from a Sila Nano presentation.

While we can't be certain, I certainly wouldn't rule out Tesla working with Sila Nano.

Based on the Sila Nano comment above, the Tesla Battery Day, presentation and what BYD is doing with their Blade LFP battery, EVs displacing most new ICE sales by 2035 seems highly likely, if not inevitable.

So most of these laws will be irrelevant by the time they kick in, but lawmakers can continue to claim credit by moving the dates forward.

 

[RobDickinson]

While we can't be certain, I certainly wouldn't rule out Tesla working with Silanano.

Investors include Daimler, partners include BMW... Somehow I doubt it.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'm genuinely interested in who they think will be buying new fossil vehicles in the early 2030s?

I'd be surprised if they don't have 500+ mile EVs that can fully charge in under 10 minutes by then, for a price lower than a comparable ICE

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why does every quarter I feel more excited than actual Christmas

And yet, this Earnings cycle is DIFFERENT:

• for years we heard a steady chorus that "the competition is coming"
• the "big boys" could build EVs en masse whenever they choose ('cuz dey big)
• Tesla couldn't even hire top manufacturing engineer talent (career suicide)
• Model 3 ramp was "manufacturing hell" as Elon + Telsa learned the ropes
• Now Ford hires the former head of Tesla manufacturing for their EV program
• Ford hopes to make 160K/yr electric F-150 years from now (we'll see)
• the circle is now complete, and there can be just one outcome:

The competition isn't coming (anytime soon).​

TL;dr Use the Schwartz, Luke!

 

[scaesare]

I am now on my 4th Tesla, a Plaid, and love it. However, I am also on my 5th Porsche, a Taycan 4S and love that as well.

Unless you own both cars, please do not speculate. I can tell you from my experience, the Porsche’s are well made, handle extremely well, and drive like the sports cars they are, and, have a comfortable, not jarring ride. I will also state that my Taycan 4S has been averaging a REAL WORLD 280 miles per charge, all miles driven with a heavy foot (spirited driving enjoying on ramps and stop light shenanigans) but not always flooring it. I drive 75-80 on the highway, and have some fun every once in a while on our back roads. Is the network for charging crappy/sucks, you bet, But most of our charging (95%) is done at home overnight.

All of our Tesla’s (85, P90D, Model 3 Performance with Track software and our new Plaid) are wonderful cars as well, drive very nice, have excellent technology and a fantastic supercharger network. The Plaid is like no other car in a straight line and no other car comes close to the speed it generates at any mph. In fact, I am looking to take it to VIR and Watkins Glen soon just to see what it can do.

However, have I gotten any where close to range that Tesla suggests, not even close. My 85 was rated at 265 and if I got 180 on a 65 degree day with very little wind, I was lucky. My P90D was worse (expected), my Model 3 Performance was rated at 305 range and I was lucky to get 220 miles on a full charge in spirited driving. My Plaid is rated at 348 miles of range and I just turned 3k miles and I have been getting 250 miles per charge, But, I have also been enjoying the car like I stole it. The speed this car makes is like nothing else, especially 80-150.

I am glad and fortunate to own both along with some other ICE high performance cars that I track 3-4x per year. My cars serve very different purposes, and the Tesla’s and Taycan both provide clean emissions and loads of fun.

I appreciate the real-world perspective. No doubt other vehicles will appeal to folks with differing priorities... and nobody, not even Tesla, will be able o build a car that is all things to all people. The Rimac Nevera is another such example.

That having been said, I wouldn't fault Tesla for rating the range on their cars using a driving cycle that's not "spirited". I have and regularly get around rated/estimated range on it for road trips driving ~10MPH over the limit, but not necessarily hammering it. It's great that Porsche conservatively rated the Taycan , but if you were only getting 180 out of a rated 265 miles in your 85, either driving style contributed to iit, or something is amiss.

 

[MC3OZ]

Investors include Daimler, partners include BMW... Somehow I doubt it.

The idea of a wrapper around silicon to hold it together seems common to both approaches

Two completely different wrapper formulations, invented independently are possible.

They mention automotive partners, perhaps Tesla isn't one of them...

 

[FreqFlyer]

And yet, this Earnings cycle is DIFFERENT:

• for years we heard a steady chorus that "the competition is coming"
• the "big boys" could build EVs en masse whenever they choose ('cuz dey big)
• Tesla couldn't even hire top manufacturing engineer talent (career suicide)
• Model 3 ramp was "manufacturing hell" as Elon + Telsa learned the ropes
• Now Ford hires the former head of Tesla manufacturing for their EV program
• Ford hopes to make 160K/yr electric F-150 years from now (we'll see)
• the circle is now complete, and there can be just one outcome:

The competition isn't coming (anytime soon).​

TL;dr Use the Schwartz, Luke!

Lets stop this strawman argument. Competition will not arrive until 2023-24 time frame. Thats when the big OEMs will have their mainstream EVs ready. Until then there will niche luxury or sport cars from the automakers. Ford may offer an EV truck but major battery production will not start until 2023.

 

[NicoV]

I ordered another MY for an employee on monday (no holiday here in Germany).

This is what I got today (translated by DEEPL):

"Hallo Johann, wir haben großartige Nachrichten für Sie. Ihr Model Y steht bereits im Auslieferungszentrum EU-DE - Muenchen - Haag Delivery Hub zur Abholung bereit. Sofern Sie Ihr Fahrzeug bereits zugelassen haben, nennen Sie uns gerne einen passenden Abholtermin in der aktuellen Kalenderwoche, indem Sie mit "Vorziehen + Abholdatum" auf diese SMS antworten. Im Anschluss wird sich ein Tesla Advisor mit Ihnen in Verbindung setzen und den Termin bestätigen. Um sich von dem SMS Service abzumelden, antworten Sie mit STOP."

Hello Johann, we have great news for you. Your Model Y is already ready for pickup at the EU-DE - Munich - Haag Delivery Hub. Provided you have already registered your vehicle, please feel free to provide us with a suitable pickup date in the current calendar week by replying to this SMS with "Advance + Pickup Date". A Tesla Advisor will then contact you to confirm the date. To unsubscribe from the SMS service, reply with STOP.

Unfortunately I have to wait for the invoice, pay for the car, receive the registration documents, register the car; only then can I pick it up. Let's see how long that takes. I am ready.

I talked to a sales guy and he said they have all colors of the MY available for immediate delivery.

Tesla Germany is on fire. Several friends of mine are picking up their first or second Tesla car next week. Times are good.

I saw a Dutch guy reporting on FB that he just got his Model Y, just a week after ordering.
It looks like Tesla is building some inventory in Europe now that Tesla China produces the cars.
Maybe that’s why Elon says this will be the worst end of quarter rush Tesla will ever have. Finally a more flattened delivery curve.

 

[2Pearls]

I appreciate the real-world perspective. No doubt other vehicles will appeal to folks with differing priorities... and nobody, not even Tesla, will be able o build a car that is all things to all people. The Rimac Nevera is another such example.

That having been said, I wouldn't fault Tesla for rating the range on their cars using a driving cycle that's not "spirited". I have and regularly get around rated/estimated range on it for road trips driving ~10MPH over the limit, but not necessarily hammering it. It's great that Porsche conservatively rated the Taycan , but if you were only getting 180 out of a rated 265 miles in your 85, either driving style contributed to iit, or something is amiss.

I do have an aggressive driving style as I don’t baby my cars, and, driving 10 mph over the speed limit could get you hurt on the East Coast, especially on I95. The speeds on 95 are going 80 mph easily in traffic. I drive down to Florida and up to Boston regularly (off hours to avoid congestion) and driving 80-85 is going with the flow. As for the 85 range, we got our car in April of 2013 and put over 80k miles on it in 3 years and had 1 motor replaced. We did Get about 180 miles on a full charge as the car was driven on local roads or at higher speeds on the highway which kill consumption. Not faulting it, as my driving style is aggressive. I can also state that in the winter, the mileage is much worse. I remember driving down to Florida in December of 2013 and this was our first major road trip and the superchargers were spaced farther apart. Because of my stupidity of driving fast leaving NJ, then charging in DE, we headed down to the southern VA supercharger and because it was in the 20’s and my speed was too fast, I had to slow down to under 50 just to make sure we made that VA (either Petersburg or Richmond, can’t remember now) Supercharger. I think we had 4 miles of range left.

 

[MartinAustin]

What does this stuff about range have to do with investing in TSLA

 

[PeterJA]

Lets stop this strawman argument. Competition will not arrive until 2023-24 time frame....

Spiegel and Chanos and Lutz and JPMorgan analysts may have straw between their ears, but they are not strawmen. They have been saying for nearly a decade that massive competition is coming soon. You are moving the goalposts like they do.

 

[The Accountant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435744635817713664

Six Mere Months to Grow Earnings by Another $1 Billion

The first sentence that Elon uttered during the Q1 Earnings call:

"Great. Thank you. So Q1 2021 was a record quarter on many levels. Tesla achieved record production, deliveries and surpassed $1 billion in non-GAAP net income for the first time."​

Now just 2 Quarters later, Tesla will double that to $2 Billion. Isn't it evident to everyone by now that something truly amazing is happening with this company?

 

[pz1975]

Spiegel and Chanos and Lutz and JPMorgan analysts may have straw between their ears, but they are not strawmen. They have been saying for nearly a decade that massive competition is coming soon. You are moving the goalposts like they do.

Good times - the Spiegel Bottom. It’s funny how this previously-glorified TSLA short (fortunately not paraded out in the news anymore) has a hedge fund worth significantly less than the portfolios of likely thousands of regular posters and lurkers here.

 

[SunCatcher]

Six Mere Months to Grow Earnings by Another $1 Billion

Now just 2 Quarters later, Tesla will double that to $2 Billion. Isn't it evident to everyone by now that something truly amazing is happening with this company?

I swear. More & more, what little doubt I've had in TSLA's complete victory is dissipating; I believe we're living through one of the greatest investment opportunities seen in modern times. I'm watching this story playing out before us in complete awe. And it only becomes more obvious as we move forward.
Always possible that unforeseen black swans can show up and spoil the pudding, but that's nothing new in this life is it?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

In Rob Maurer's latest videoTesla Daily - Tesla's Q3 is looking great he mentions his belief that Tesla could finish the year with 880k to 900k in production. As a bear case I use Rob's mention of analysts expectations of 850k for the year.

For revenue I divided Q1 revenue by Q1 veh production, did the same for q2, and took the average between the two multiples to come to a multiplier of $57,737 times vehicles produced to estimate total revenue.

Price to sales numbers used are 18, 20, and 30. We are currently at about 19 and we hit a high of 30 at the beginning of the year.

Using these estimates if we are in the 880k-900k total production range my end of the year price target is $923-$1,574.

Bear price target is $892 with production only hitting 850k.

As profit margins increase from Berlin and Austin manufacturing efficiencies, successful launch and increased takerate of FSD, and improvements in the energy business I expect the price to sales ratio to skew higher.

 

[The Accountant]

Six Mere Months to Grow Earnings by Another $1 Billion

The first sentence that Elon uttered during the Q1 Earnings call:

"Great. Thank you. So Q1 2021 was a record quarter on many levels. Tesla achieved record production, deliveries and surpassed $1 billion in non-GAAP net income for the first time."​

Now just 2 Quarters later, Tesla will double that to $2 Billion. Isn't it evident to everyone by now that something truly amazing is happening with this company?

I just reflected on what likely may be a $2B profit for Tesla in Q3:

Since its inception July 1 2003, it took Tesla:
71 Quarters to reach $1 Billion in profits, and then
2 Quarters to reach the next $1 Billion