Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobDickinson]

Tony Seba's forecasts on the declining cost curve for battery and solar production paints a very rosy picture of an essentially free energy future. Try to imagine how this will affect the economy. A significant portion of every price we pay can be traced back to the energy needed to produce, transport, store, and market, well, everything.

Its certainly going to be a big driving factor. Even with political and legislative lag..

If you use a lot of power you can install your own solar/wind/storage and reap the benefits like many companies are already doing.

 

[Thekiwi]

Well FWIW Chamath Palihapitiya considers the Tesla energy business to have enormous potential

Chamath is rather optimistic on every single thing he invests in. He’s your classic “Talking your book” investor. If you add up all his prognostications about how much annual revenue of all the “future industries” he invests in, the total becomes several times larger than the entire global economy. maybe he’s including future alien or multidimensional customers or something, or maybe sentiment AI TESLABOTS are gonna have a hankering for consumer items as well.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Chamath is rather optimistic on every single thing he invests in. He’s your classic “Talking your book” investor. If you add up all his prognostications about how much annual revenue all the future industries he invests in, the total becomes several times larger than the entire global economy. maybe he’s including future alien or multidimensional customers or something, or maybe sentiment AI TESLABOTS are gonna have a hankering for consumer items as well.

Maybe he has a long time investing horizon and by 2100 there will be 100T industries in green energy. However, his short term estimates are the reverse or Ron Baron. He has an access of enthusiasm while afin Baron seems to be sandbagging.

 

[2daMoon]

Its certainly going to be a big driving factor. Even with political and legislative lag..

If you use a lot of power you can install your own solar/wind/storage and reap the benefits like many companies are already doing.

That is the beauty of it, really.

The installation costs are easily within the reach of the private sector. Homes, businesses, industry, and municipalities can all begin now to incrementally grow their production and storage. This removes the stranglehold large-scale energy production and management has enjoyed for as long as we've been making electricity.

Doing this puts the power behind power in the hands of the individual. It is like what Bitcoin is trying to do with money, except it is much easier to accomplish for anyone who sees the benefit and starts making and storing electricity to be shared.

And, it will be particularly nice for those invested in growing companies that produce solar and battery products.

 

[MC3OZ]

There are other aspects to consider. My favorite is the concept of free energy, or darn close to free.

As Solar, Wind, and Batteries permanently replace fossil and even nuke power sources, the extremely low cost of maintenance will drive the cost of electricity down to match that cost plus what meager profit is necessary to grow and sustain it. It will be so low that a minuscule tax at the register would be enough to keep things running and avoid the cost of billing for energy at all.

Tony Seba's forecasts on the declining cost curve for battery and solar production paints a very rosy picture of an essentially free energy future. Try to imagine how this will affect the economy. A significant portion of every price we pay can be traced back to the energy needed to produce, transport, store, and market, well, everything.

I'm not too worried about the profit. I just want to see exponential growth in solar and battery installations. (Wind too, but Tesla isn't into that. Yet.)

Then, what dollars we have to spend will buy more over time as energy costs decline. What Cathie Wood calls good deflation.

This idea is challenging to grapple with as it is topsy-turvy after a lifetime of dealing with ever-rising prices, and I do think there will be significant progress made over the next decade.

We need to factor in the Tesla battery day presentation, and the fact that Tesla will be able to make LFP batteries free of licensing fees in around 7 months..

Grid energy storage is a very crowded field, but LFP batteries are very competitive, and I think Tesla knows what pricing to aim for..

I would love to see Powerwall redesigned to fit an LFP chemistry. It makes a lot of logical sense, and may be what Tesla needs to compete in the domestic battery space. So far, a strict reading of battery day is that Powerwall is Nickel-Manganese..

I'm right on board the deflation/abundance train and have been for years. When we factor in more efficient production processes, recycling, robotics, etc, I tend to agree with Elon, it is hard to see a limit to the expansion of the global economy..

I also expect more product diversity from Tesla, perhaps expanding into areas none of us predict, or very few of us predict..

On a slightly related topic, what is happening in the"Precision Fermentation" space is mind-blowing, and perhaps more surprising than clean energy and transport. Tony Seba's predictions in that area are not as crazy as they seem.

 

[Singuy]

The energy business is very hard to value - no one doubts the stationary battery storage and rooftop solar will have massive growth and eventually every residence will have it and there will be many utility scale installations. However stationary Batteries and solar panels are for the most part commodity products - and commodity industries generally have low margins once supply becomes enough to meet demand. So even if the annual industry is worth trillions, the margins could be slim and the corresponding market value of battery & solar suppliers could be fairly small. I don’t see anyway that Tesla’s energy business could be worth $3 Trillion like you do. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Maybe. I feel like Tesla is commoditizing their own products through engineering the production line to the point that they can squeeze out a higher margin while undercutting the competition at the same time. Their margins right now is industry leading at a fraction of their volume...and they are just getting started. This is before structural pack and full on casting. Also this is before simplifying/increasing their production line by "an order of magnitude". It's getting to the point that the Chinese or third world countries couldn't keep up while Tesla is using some of the highest paid labors in the world.

 

[AudubonB]

When you write "wiper armature", do you mean the laser beam emitters ?

Hmm. Take a look at the “left”-hand side of the glass, halfway up. Isn’t there some doodad that‘s covered with…well, it couldn’t be old-fashioned masking tape but it’s what it looks like to me! Might that be the laser SlicerMcDicer?

 

[RobDickinson]

Yep their drive for vert integration etc mean more margin at a lower cost.

Most competitors are struggling to break even on EVs etc - and thats often with double subsidies.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Well, it's been one year since our family lost EV TV host and TSLA investor Jack Rickard to lung cancer.

His team has put together this tribute video, including an 8-min clip from one of Jack's last videos:

EVTV Friday Show - "Bolt Recall and Jack Tribute"

You are missed, but not forgotten.

Cheers, and much love Uncle Jack!

He was a true asset to the Tesla community, but couldn't help but notice the cigarette pack and lighter in the background of what must have been one of his last videos?

Such a brilliant investment mind, yet a hastened demise for something so avoidable.

So very sad.

 

[MXWing]

Investing aside, I am so glad that companies like Tesla are out there pushing every boundary simultaneously.

Performance
Value
Safety

Looking at GMs list of what you can or cannot do, I admittedly would be jumping back into an ICE vehicle were it the only EV.

 

[Jack6591]

Well FWIW Chamath Palihapitiya considers the Tesla energy business to have enormous potential

People love their cars, and Elon completely disrupted the automotive industry. Electric utilities are a different story…

LADWP Ranked 13th Most-Hated Company In America

It's official: the Department of Water & Power is among the least popular businesses in all of the U.S.

www.google.com

Once Tesla has the battery supply to focus on the utilities, the disruption spread like wildfire.

 

[Bet TSLA]

“We invested $380 million between 2014 and 2016, which was 1.5% of our assets at the time,” Baron said in an interview for Bloomberg Wealth With David Rubenstein on Sept. 14.

1.5%? Weak, weak long.

 

[Skipdd]

Not sure if i should tag Disagree or Funny - but I miss my not yet delivered Model S. I like the Model 3 all right - but when I'm on a grand tour I do not want to drive a gocart. Or are you saying that the new Roadster will be canceled?

Agree with your sentiment. I have a colleague who has been on again/off again about getting a Tesla. He has no EV currently. Drove all the Tesla models, except the Y, and decided it was an S or nothing if a Tesla. Looked at the Audi eTron and decided he liked that better because of seat comfort and accoutrements. Hit pause for a bit. Called me yesterday and said he was tired of paying $500/mo to gas his pick-up, and revisited the Model S. Found some older models with better fitting seats and is moving forward with purchasing. When the CT is available, I‘m sure he will evaluate it. Bottomline for him it was S only if a Tesla. Moral is there are different segments. Good to have representation in most.

 

[Fred42]

View attachment 710317

Investing aside, I am so glad that companies like Tesla are out there pushing every boundary simultaneously.

Performance
Value
Safety

Looking at GMs list of what you can or cannot do, I admittedly would be jumping back into an ICE vehicle were it the only EV.

What's most important about the Bolt fiasco is what significance and impact it has on Ultium, if any. I haven't heard a peep. The Bolt was just a warm-up exercise for GM. If they have to change their plans for Ultium, the delays and cost could potentially be a much bigger problem than the Bolt.

 

[2daMoon]

View attachment 710317

Investing aside, I am so glad that companies like Tesla are out there pushing every boundary simultaneously.

Performance
Value
Safety

Looking at GMs list of what you can or cannot do, I admittedly would be jumping back into an ICE vehicle were it the only EV.

What I see is GM taking advantage of the situation by spreading bad news about their BEVs.

Consider how this lemonade from lemons marketing might positively affect ICE sales.

Read in Junior Samples voice...

Even our Electricalated Cars catch fire. That why we also sell good old gas cars! Visit your local dealership to learn more. ​

 

[woodisgood]

What I see is GM taking advantage of the situation by spreading bad news about their BEVs.

Consider how this lemonade from lemons marketing might positively affect ICE sales.

Read in Junior Samples voice...

Even our Electricalated Cars catch fire. That why we also sell good old gas cars! Visit your local dealership to learn more. ​

With all their advertising dollars, they could easily squelch the publicity if they wanted. They don’t want, which is why you’re hearing so much about it.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Tomorrow looks like a complete wildcard to me...
I don't think it will follow this week's pattern.

Do any of you brave souls have predictions for tomorrow?

 

[PeterJA]

I'm smelling a big day tomorrow. No reason we can't scoot right up to nearly $800 this week as there's no call wall of any significance. I bet we teeter on $780 all day and close a bit above.

People must be feeling the pressure to cover before this tsunami of profits slaps them in the face.

The following two weeks we inch our way up to the actual $800 call wall just in time for deliveries to be announced.

No call wall of any significance below 800? The Open Interest call walls at 750, 760, 770 and 780 add up to the same height (80k) as the giant put wall at 700 (as of end of day yesterday). Doesn't the area under the curve matter as much as the height?

Also, today's volume chart shows an 80k call wall at 760. Won't much of that show up on the Open Interest chart tomorrow?

I'm new at this, so you tell me.

Stock Option Max Pain

maximum-pain.com

 

[Bet TSLA]

An arrest has been made (two actually) in the death of Boryana Straubel, JB's wife.

Two arrested for Washoe Valley crash killing wife of Tesla co-founder

Police have arrested two people following a months-long criminal investigation into a car crash that killed a bicyclist in June 2021. Irma Arellano-Arroyo and Guadalupe Garcia-Davalos are behind bars, charged with several crimes relating to the crash that killed Boryana Straubel, the 38-year-old...

mynews4.com

 

[vwman111]

I really want a Tesla van for my mtb habit. That would replace the Transit conversion being used now.

As for ride recovery, 1 scoop of Hammer Nutrition's Recoverite in water, then a beer or two. Done!

The CT will replace a Ford Focus (as they are SO similar ), but I dream about a Tesla van with good road trip range.

PM me if interested. I can take you on some of the world's best trails all within 10 miles from a supercharger and great beer!