Annnnnnd busted.......so much for that superior tech
Turns out it's kinda easy to hit 500 mile range in a sedan if you put a giant battery in there.
I want to see some proof first.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I want to see some proof first.
Krugerrand
Meow
That is clearly your fault for not picking the correct friend to own TSLA. Mine texted me and asked how they should vote, whereby they were given specific instructions which they followed.
pprooodducctttionnnn starrttt allreaaddyyyy for Berlin and Austin (that's my line of thinking as to the Tesla situation with this share price, people are loading up for the start of another run over the next 9 or so months)
kthx
my broker just received my papers to active my option trading account. Will start slowly as I expect the stock to move gradually I to the 800s within 2 months. I have the same expectation in the SP movement.Careful. Apparently talk about stock price is OT drivel and will get your post moved. Better to write about Lucid, windshields, and rocket launches.
I posted this yesterday, with one line related to cycling, but the situation is no different today. I'm liking the price action. My sold Puts and Calls below and above the current SP (respectively) are doing very well. I used to think that the SP would start climbing a few weeks before an obvious positive event (Q3 numbers). But lately it seems that Wall Street is very good at playing Chicken, and they are able to wait until a few days before to start buying (I predict we close next week below 800, and maybe climb above it the following week). After my 820 strike covered calls expire on Sept. 24th, I'm not selling any more until AFTER Oct 3rd. I do, however, have sold Puts that expire in October and November because I can't imagine we go below 700 after Q3 numbers are released. I hope I'm right.
here is my lane related to cycling to make my post get moved: just went for a 60 miles ride with my friend who is a pilot for a Commercial airline and since covid, his workload was reduced by 95%, he didn’t post his rides on Strava and destroyed me with a 400 watts pull straight for 8 miles without any rest. I finished the ride climbing a steep hill barely alive. I am resting on my couch, not even able to get up. The only thing can do it refresh my broker page.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Calm before the storm.
MM's drive the SP down early.
A few more shares are bought than sold on the way down.
MM's cover in the afternoon and SP ends slightly up.
When volume is this low, it's easier for MM's to short in the morning knowing they can cover in the afternoon. At least I assume that's the case.
DFibRL8R
Active Member
As long as your friend isn’t Koguan Leo I think we’re ok.
RobDickinson
Active Member
Got 14 more myself at 752, not confident we'll see another dip tbhPicked up 10 more shares. I have about 10k left to invest but I'm kinda holding that for a dip...or should I just dive in now? Stock seems to be breaking out a bit, and I cannot help but think that great news from SpaceX affects investor confidence in Tesla. Same CEO and all....doing great things. Truly an Inspiration.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
According to my calculations, a measly 100 Wh worth of batteries in your downtube would have had your friend wondering why that 8 mile pull was so easy for you.
Of course, it's probably easier to spend less time on the forum and more time riding.-
GM extends its Bolt EV production shutdown until at least mid-October
GM shut down the plant making its Bolt EVs due to fiery battery failure. That production halt was supposed to last until September 24th, now it's extended to October 15th, at least.www.engadget.com
The recall that keeps on giving
Who’s going to buy them anyway?
I drive my Tesla to mountain bike and the English say you should aim your feet up a wall for 5minutes per hour ridden.
When will FSD support recovery rides back from the trail.
Seems like 1 year after CT. So 2023 +/- 2 wks. When will Tesla make a vehicle with room for a trainer so you can do active recovery on the drive home. Been asking for 5 years…. I must be asking incorrectly.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I really want a Tesla van for my mtb habit. That would replace the Transit conversion being used now.
As for ride recovery, 1 scoop of Hammer Nutrition's Recoverite in water, then a beer or two. Done!
The CT will replace a Ford Focus (as they are SO similar
), but I dream about a Tesla van with good road trip range.
Spacep0d
Active Member
Yeah that's what I'm thinking or at least it's driving me to invest the rest now before the breakout reaches escape velocity. Thankfully I picked up 14 @ 717 earlier this week and I caught that one coming down.
I'll check early tomorrow since I'm on PDT. Thanks for weighing-in and congrats on your shares too!
The energy business is very hard to value - no one doubts the stationary battery storage and rooftop solar will have massive growth and eventually every residence will have it and there will be many utility scale installations. However stationary Batteries and solar panels are for the most part commodity products - and commodity industries generally have low margins once supply becomes enough to meet demand. So even if the annual industry is worth trillions, the margins could be slim and the corresponding market value of battery & solar suppliers could be fairly small. I don’t see anyway that Tesla’s energy business could be worth $3 Trillion like you do. Hopefully I’m wrong.
It would be the same for Tesla cars. They would just become commodity and the real value is the software. For energy it's arbitrage.
This has always been my take as well. Tesla can create a valuable enterprise here by sheer scale of revenue but the profitability will be low because the product is much more straightforward and innovation more easily competed away. There are just leagues of difference between the difficulty in the engineering and adjacent business challenges (service, sales, minimum scale, etc.) of vehicles and also for autopilot which by the sheer fact of being more of a Google Search type 'who gets their first' software challenge makes it exclusive. I'd be happy with something like 2x-3x sales frankly on energy production/storage long term and that even has to fight against the long-term decline in price/kWh. If we end up in 2030 around 50$/kWh and 3x sales that's 20 TWh for 3T valuation.
Well FWIW Chamath Palihapitiya considers the Tesla energy business to have enormous potential
He doesn't really quantify it though. I can see 500B$ pretty easily which is also 'enormous potential' given where that would rank amongst current megacaps all by itself. I'd wager though that whatever becomes of TeslaBot by 2030 will be even bigger (a subject change I suppose but nevertheless). Also, Chamath nails the goofy trailing twelve month metric bears. Goofballs. SeekingAlpha and elsewhere is full of people that think the future never comes or that predicting it is impossible. It's a very short-term perspective that is precisely our edge. I rode NFLX pretty much the entire way up and no stock should go up 30%/year consistently year after year. It means the market is really inefficient and gets whupped by people with reasonably accurate priors and who can do napkin math (and who can avoid having some weird psychological hangup/shadow projection because they don't like Elon's style).
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
There are other aspects to consider. My favorite is the concept of free energy, or darn close to free.
As Solar, Wind, and Batteries permanently replace fossil and even nuke power sources, the extremely low cost of maintenance will drive the cost of electricity down to match that cost plus what meager profit is necessary to grow and sustain it. It will be so low that a minuscule tax at the register would be enough to keep things running and avoid the cost of billing for energy at all.
Tony Seba's forecasts on the declining cost curve for battery and solar production paints a very rosy picture of an essentially free energy future. Try to imagine how this will affect the economy. A significant portion of every price we pay can be traced back to the energy needed to produce, transport, store, and market, well, everything.
I'm not too worried about the profit. I just want to see exponential growth in solar and battery installations. (Wind too, but Tesla isn't into that. Yet.)
Then, what dollars we have to spend will buy more over time as energy costs decline. What Cathie Wood calls good deflation.
This idea is challenging to grapple with as it is topsy-turvy after a lifetime of dealing with ever-rising prices, and I do think there will be significant progress made over the next decade.
It's Uncle Leo carrying us on his back!
I actually wonder if KoGuan Leo really bought 1.2 million shares or whatever it is he was claiming.
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