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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Well, I guess it’s settled…approximately 24 hours for the beta button. Time to engage chill mode folks.
 
Those of us who lived through 2000 and 2008 are forever tainted and gunshot. I literally wake up at 4:30am EST every morning to check if the market is crashing. I'm shocked every day that it isn't.

My finger is ALWAYS on the sell trigger. Sad way to have to live.

Sad indeed. but there is help. Study this chart of the S&P 500 Index over the last 43 years:

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Can you make out a trend line here? The proven way to become wealthy is to work hard, save and invest and not worry about the ups and downs because they are not something you have any control over. By selecting the best companies and avoiding the failures like a plague you can do a lot better than this without worrying about trying to time the market.

Black Monday 1987 is visible as a little blip - it was the largest one day drop ever and people thought the world was coming to an end. I was wondering why everyone seemed so shocked. It was only 20% for the S&P 500 and around 23% for the DJIA. But, if you didn't sell it was a non-event. The way to manage stock market volatility is to reduce exposure to stocks as retirement nears. But if you have been a diligent investor your entire life you will have so much money by that time that you will be able to laugh off a 25% loss. A long-term perspective makes the game of life much easier to play.
 
The advantage of ICE is, when they get old, you can work on them yourself:
I found this strangely relaxing to watch while seeming absurd at the same time. It took me back to an era that is quickly becoming a distant memory.

Transportation is important. Don't under-estimate the speed at which this is happening. Godspeed Cybertruck!
 
I don't think we're going to.

I was pulling out of a parking lot the other day and saw some souped up Honda. I explained to my son that that's pointless now. The kid who put all the effort, expense, and pride into that car will pull up next to some housewife in her Model Y, kids strapped in in the back seats, and she will smoke him if the thought occurs to her.

What's the point now of having a Corvette or a Charger? Especially when the world fills up with robotaxis. I see the choices in cars becoming more vanilla and more utilitarian. Tesla could be like an invasive species that comes into a defenseless eco system and eats everything.

The kid in his souped up Honda was never about beating the quickest car in the Model Y price class at the stop light grand prix. He couldn't do it in 1990 or now.

It was about fun to drive and having something rare that expresses your personality.

There have always been more rational transportation choices. And most people keep making irrational choices buying cars on wants not needs.

Nobody needs a Model S Plaid. And yet Tesla can't satisfy orders. The Yoke may be cool but it is certainly not utilitarian.

Most people need a compact hatchback or minivan. And those are going the way of the Dodo bird in US/Canada.

In an Iphone/Apple watch world people keep telling me a Rolex is pointless.

Yet Rolex sells their entire production of 750k units/year at full price. Many Swiss watch companies are doing quite well.

Robotaxi services will sell to people that hate cars or are indifferent to cars. To people that can't drive or can't afford to drive. And to people that need taxi services like drunks or people going to the airport. Not to people that love cars and love to drive for their daily transportation.
 
The other fact that I heard in a YouTube video was Chinese aiming to produce around 35 Million EVs per year by 2025, I am not sure about the source for that claim. but we already know China has definite ambitions to export EVs,,,

Just because the Chinese Government aims for Chinese companies to produce 35M BEV per year does not necessarily mean they will export 10-20M BEVs per year.

VW aims to sell more BEVs per year than Tesla in 2030.
 
Someone had to inject party politics into this thread again, of the nasty kind. A bunch of posts have been removed. It's no secret that there is no place for political bickering in this thread, so the instigator - warned before - has been exiled for two weeks.

Please also try to limit the discussion on world politics. Some people will say it's relevant, and others will say the same for dozens of other subjects (like crypto, brexit, forest fires, the swift payment system, the temperature of the coffee at McDonald's!?!). The thread cannot harbour all those subjects.
 
0.2x macros on the way up, 2x macros on the way down... BTW, yesterday, "C-P Brkpt" point at a 745 Friday Close preferred for MMs. :p

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,233.50 -70.00 (-0.46%)

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Sep 24, 2021 05:31 AM ET.
Consolidated Last Sale$746.55 -7.09 (-0.94%)
Pre-Market Volume25,563
Pre-Market High$750 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Low$745.2 (04:01:54 AM)


Here is the NASDAQ 5-day chart for TSLA, also showing macros (NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 indices). It's pretty clear how MMs+hedgies are trying to hold TSLA to no weekly gains.

TSLA.5-Day.2021-09-23.png
 
Last edited:
A few pattern match thoughts:

Biden is Howard Hughes.

He may not even know about the orbital flight of private citizens. Nobody told him.

Peter Lynch is Howard Hughes

He may not even know that Tesla will no longer depend on capital markets as the money math on accounts receivable and accounts payable is changing. The Gigapress helps shorten inventory cycle times that
make even low margin businesses profitable. [note Tesla is not a low margin business]. If ROI is the best approximate figure of merit, inventory turns is the path to reduced investment.

When there is no money tied up on boats from China, that money can be used to make the business run. No need for Wall Street capital - especially if your customers pay you before you pay your suppliers.

Nobody told Peter.
And he likely looks at Tesla numbers in an industry group kind of way, even though the way Tesla does business is significantly different.

Warren Buffet is the Wizard of.,,. So I don’t know on him.
 
Great.. we need more departments without regulatory authority to speak on the subject /s

 
0.2x macros on the way up, 2x macros on the way down... BTW, yesterday, "C-P Brkpt" point at a 745 Friday Close preferred for MMs. :p

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,233.50 -70.00 (-0.46%)

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Sep 24, 2021 05:31 AM ET.
Consolidated Last Sale$746.55 -7.09 (-0.94%)
Pre-Market Volume25,563
Pre-Market High$750 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Low$745.2 (04:01:54 AM)


Here is the NASDAQ 5-day chart for TSLA, also showing macros (NASDAQ-100 and S&P-500 indices). It's pretty clear how MMs+hedgies are trying to hold TSLA to no weekly gains.

View attachment 713519
I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked 🤷‍♂️ 😄
 
Sorry to interrupt the political discussion, but am I the only one who is offended by the pie chart here?

They took 3 sets of overlapping data (top 10, top 20, and top 50 shareholders) which equal 135% on their own, and then crammed in a 4th set of data (other owners) which is not even the remainder of the whole after subtracting the top 50 group.

So the pie chart shows 182% of shares while still excluding some group of shareholders just outside the top 50. The creator of this monstrosity ought to be hanged, drawn, and quartered into 7 pieces.
I’m typically offended by such misuse of charts, but I came around on this one. They’re just showing the relative size of each overlapping ownership group in a donut chart. A stacked bar chart would have been more appropriate.
They can definitely affect public opinion. Google "Tesla" and then click on the news tab. The last 2 months are a barrage of NTSB and NHTSA negativity.
Remember that you influence the algorithm. Click on one negative article and you influence what search results get surfaced for you. I apparently have clicked on too many electrek articles.

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