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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The headwinds on FSD are strong. Very strong. Almost hurricane force. Everyone - media, Tesla haters, politicians, Biden admin are united to stop Tesla now. I have never seen a united front against one entity like this. Ever. The confrontation between Musk and NTSB chair will not end in Tesla's favor. This will have a huge, as much as 20%, short term downside impact on Tesla.

Media scumbag queen Lora is now the darling for all Tesla haters.


Untrained drivers on public roads? In my state we have a department of transportation that makes people get Driver's Licences. That department decides what training is required. They even have laws making illegal to drive without a license, that are enforced by state troopers and local law enforcement. I think the Senator needs to get on it and make sure his state has those vital services in place.
 
The headwinds on FSD are strong. Very strong. Almost hurricane force. Everyone - media, Tesla haters, politicians, Biden admin are united to stop Tesla now. I have never seen a united front against one entity like this. Ever. The confrontation between Musk and NTSB chair will not end in Tesla's favor. This will have a huge, as much as 20%, short term downside impact on Tesla.

Media scumbag queen Lora is now the darling for all Tesla haters.


My honest prediction is that sometime in the next 5 years all of the forces desperately opposing Tesla now, will be opposing Chinese carmakers with a lot more force. Some of those Chinese carmakers will have versions of FSD that are not as good...

Tesla will benefit from no longer being seen as the biggest danger.... I posted n this here The demise of the OEMs

That post also links another post with a YouTube video on Chinese EV production...

The same YouTube channel regularly posts videos about the prices and specs of Chinese EVs...

Long story short, Tesla haters should be more worried about Chinese carmakers, a lot more worried... when they realise this, Tesla will get less attention.
 
There’s a TSLA post on the frontpage of WallStreetBets. I really regret not loading up on calls on Thursday.

TSLA is a $700B market cap blue chip which is a top 10 holding in the S&P 500. It's not some bupkis meme stonk with market cap under $10 billion. WSB can't move TSLA and they are welcome to try for the memes. Even KoGuan Leo and his 1.2 million shares purchase had no obvious effect, what will a few WSB YOLO'ers buying calls possibly do?

If TSLA wants to go up, it will go up. WSB will have nothing at all to do with it.
 
Untrained drivers on public roads? In my state we have a department of transportation that makes people get Driver's Licences. That department decides what training is required. They even have laws making illegal to drive without a license, that are enforced by state troopers and local law enforcement. I think the Senator needs to get on it and make sure his state has those vital services in place.
Obviously Tesla is giving FSD to cobalt mining children from the Congo.
 
TSLA is a $700B market cap blue chip which is a top 10 holding in the S&P 500. It's not some bupkis meme stonk with market cap under $10 billion. WSB can't move TSLA and they are welcome to try for the memes. Even KoGuan Leo and his 1.2 million shares purchase had no obvious effect, what will a few WSB YOLO'ers buying calls possibly do?

If TSLA wants to go up, it will go up. WSB will have nothing at all to do with it.
I don’t think they’re going for a P&D. The comments are about Q3 results, the 2 new Gigafactories coming online, and the FSD beta. It just shows that the sentiment with retail has changed in the last couple of months, and like it has been pointed here, the stock is ready for another breakout.
 
Lol, you think a parking lot needs 5m of vertical fill? No, this is for heavy foundations. They'll need another logistics yard for the 2M Models 2 per year that Phase 3 will be cranking out by 2024-ish.

View attachment 714563

I hope by 2024 Tesla FSD can automate much of the factory-lot logistics. Would be especially nice to see new cars drive themselves to the Port, or even onto tractor-trailers.

Cheers!
What is happening here is a pretty common operation in my world.

The trucks are bringing in material to allow the excavators/bulldozers to build out a working pad in the marshy area. You can easily observe the existing soil is highly saturated and the ground water elevation is quite high. It would be entirely unsuitable for even tracked equipment cross this area, and it's not the sort of thing you want to, or even could build on. This operation accomplishes two things:

1. It establishes a more suitable working elevation for the future infrastructure that is above the existing water table, and some sort of flood level design elevation (1 in 100 year flood event for example)
2. It levels the site to provide a flat* area to build on.

*flat actually means positive drainage, in that rainfall will not accumulate as standing water, assuming this is not meant for a building. You'll recall Giga Texas had issues right before they were installing the raft slabs where the flat site did not shed water well. The site had to be flat as a sloping factory floor is... not ideal, but it's what you want in a parking lot or road.

Typically, when "padding" out across marshy/muskeg areas, the first lift may be well in excess of a meter as it simply isn't possibly to achieve any sort of compaction with the water saturation level so high. I've padded out into way worse than these conditions, they haven't even sunk any machines! Another reason for padding out a site is because water is a newtonian fluid therefore and cannot be compacted, so it is a fruitless effort to attempt to compact anything lower than the water table, which is why you want to build things above it, unless you are in a different branch of Civil Engineering.

They will need to finish levelling the entire site before whatever comes next. I suspect we'll see the start of something here in the next month or so.@Maarten is factually correct with his explanation of pre-stressing or "pre-load" in North American vernacular, but pre-load this is not. Pre-load needs to be installed in "lifts" or layers of material, this is being bulked in, there isn't a compactor in sight anywhere. For reference, 5m of vertical fill is a medium preload height. I've currently got several 13m vertical preloads in various states of settlement on my project. It is not uncommon to have factories/warehouse pre-loaded for years, as @Maarten suggests, but it really depends on a lot of things. I've seen pre-loads as short as several weeks and a long as 3 years. Think of it as squeezing a wet chamois into a ball. It's rather useless when wet, but turns stiff and rigid when the water is squeezed out.

Preload may indeed be required in this area, but it depends on what they intend to construct. Point loads from heavy equipment and machinery are typically handled by piled foundation in situations with insufficient bearing capacity or if you want to do it quickly. I believe the first round of Shanghai had a lot of piling rigs at one point. Texas did not. Spread footings can also work, it depends on a lot of factors, the idea is either lower the pressure or ensure that whatever you're installed won't move over time.
 
Untrained drivers on public roads? In my state we have a department of transportation that makes people get Driver's Licences. That department decides what training is required. They even have laws making illegal to drive without a license, that are enforced by state troopers and local law enforcement. I think the Senator needs to get on it and make sure his state has those vital services in place.
Not to mention the fact that other companies trying to develop autonomy have had employees driving who have had accidents, so clearly being a paid tester doesn't necessarily make it safer.

Bottom line is, 2,000 Tesla FSD beta testers for a year have had zero accidents. Zero. They've probably put on the order of 10 million miles in that time if they're doing an average of 1,000 miles per month like a typical American driver and running Beta for the majority of that driving. The expected number of crashes is on the order of 100. (Rates of Motor Vehicle Crashes, Injuries and Deaths in Relation to Driver Age, United States, 2014-2015 - AAA Foundation).

Expected: 100
Actual: 0

Funny how NTSB, TSLAQ, Consumer Reports, Jalopnik et al. don't even mention this when it's the obvious first question for comparing the risks...
 
at 0:11 - where did this stock footage come from? it looks like some old car with a smartphone/tablet held right at the spot where it looks a bit like a pre-fl tesla style vertical screen oooOOoooo

Bildschirmfoto 2021-09-27 um 08.07.33.png
 
It still wont matter.

No matter what you can point to the 70000 a year deaths from human drivers in USA, and Tesla will implement this in other countries, and do so safely.

What will it look like when Canada, Europe etc have it but USA dont?
We have about half that many road fatalities in the USA each year.

But let's also count the deaths, suffering and disability caused by tailpipe pollution, and the immense public health risks of climate change.

Accelerating the schedule on autonomous EVs is by far the number one thing the US Govt can do to save the millions of American lives threatened by our current road transport system. It's also arguably the number one thing they can do to spark an explosion of economic growth in America and worldwide in the 2020s, as this would be the biggest step change boost to aggregate supply of almost any technological revolution in history.

Considering that the likely winner of the autonomy race is an American company run by an immigrant who by now is the clear all-time champion in the American Dream leaderboard, I am appalled that our government and so many of my fellow Americans are fighting this. This IS the route to safer tranportation, and running it en masse on public roads is an indispensable part of getting there ASAP.

(Climate Effects on Health | CDC)
 
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You might be thinking, "why don't the Brits convert their cars to run on gas like the Americans?"

Unfortunately, we have a current shortage of gas too. Just a few Brexit teething issues. Nothing to see here.
Don't forget about the lack of electricity either. We had low winds for a few weeks and one of the main interconnects to Europe blew up.