Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

10 yr nudging over 1.5% just a bit.

 

[Knightshade]

.

I was just about to ask: What if I crash while on Beta - does Tesla cover any of this? Is Allstate Ins OK paying for Tesla's bugs? Not for long is my forecast, but I'm not a lawyer.

It's an L2 system. The human driver is always responsible for what the car does.

Tesla intends to offer a higher level system in the future- but that's not what is released today (nor even what is being tested in FSDbeta today, which is also an L2 system explicitly- the CA DMV emails go into some technical detail of why this is so if curious)

One of the open questions around FSD has been: when will Tesla accept liability for accidents that happen with FSD engaged? The standard answer has been that Tesla will begin to accept liability once legal jurisdictions and regulatory bodies allow for it. But if FSD is ready before the regulations are, could Tesla take intermediate steps? This is partly a legal question, and partly a question of Tesla's confidence in FSD. I think it's relevant to TSLA investors because taking on FSD liability would be a product decision that affects valuation.

What if Tesla starts accepting responsibility for accidents that happen with FSD engaged for — and only for — customers of Tesla insurance who also maintain a good safety score?

Currently it's not even legal for Tesla to use the safety score for insurance purposes in CA (which is their largest insurance market, they're only in a couple of states at all IIRC so no coverage is even available for most places today and they suggest it'll be years before that changes).


Tesla could certainly CHOOSE to pay for repairs caused by L2 FSD if they wished, but I've seen nothing to suggest they would- and it'd be fairly messy to do it since it'd require a judgement call on how/when/if a human ought to have intervened and if that would've prevented, or only mitigated, whatever damage happened. Even more complexity if there's other people/vehicles/etc involved... overlayed on laws of 50 different states... I don't see Tesla jumping into that blender of complexity any more than they would have for NoA which is already L2 ADAS for highways.

Higher levels of automation, those will need to have insurance questions settled, but not what's being tested now.

 

[HG Wells]

Looks like it could be a good week.
We are only down half of what the nasdaq is.

 

[matejpi]

There’s a TSLA post on the frontpage of WallStreetBets. I really regret not loading up on calls on Thursday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pw6nkg

I don't think that this is good news ... I am following WSB for quite a sometime now, and my experience is that you should inverse anything they propose. Latest examples of that was INRT, CLOV, MVST, china short index...

 

[Mich]

Looks like it could be a good week.
We are only down half of what the nasdaq is.

View attachment 714851

Is there any way to see Nasdaq futures in realtime (for free)? Investing.com changed the nasdaq futures to a 15 min delay...

 

[redan]

Well, 50-50 for Goldman on their outlook (not everyone can be Tesla!):

Tesla and General Motors picked by Goldman Sachs as auto winners in tough environment

• The unexpected backdrop sets up some automakers to outperform, per Goldman. "Several of our Buy rated stocks strike a good balance in our opinion of having strong financial models (e.g., attractive margins and/or [free cash flow]) that we think can provide resiliency in a difficult supply chain environment," notes analyst Mark Delaney. In particular, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is called an industry leader that is well positioned for growth and General Motors (NYSE:GM) is seen as an attractive stock that captures the benefit from an industry recovery in production as well as opportunities to benefit from EVs and advanced driver-assistance systems. Both stocks have a Buy rating at Goldman and price targets that imply double-digit upside. The setup is seen being not nearly as favorable for Lordstown Motors (NASDAQ:RIDE), which was cut to a Sell rating.

 

[joh01652]

From Teslarati: "A number of key Tesla suppliers from China are temporarily halting their production as the country deals with an ongoing power crunch. The production shutdowns are part of the companies’ efforts to comply with Beijing’s tighter energy consumption policy, which is caused by surging coal and natural gas prices, rising energy demand, and the country’s efforts to cut emissions — to name a few."

Tesla suppliers halt production as China faces power issues

A number of key Tesla suppliers from China are temporarily halting their production as the country deals with an ongoing power crunch. The production shutdowns are part of the companies’ efforts to comply with Beijing’s tighter energy consumption policy, which is caused by surging coal and...

www.teslarati.com

 

[winfield100]

TSLA is a $700B market cap blue chip which is a top 10 holding in the S&P 500. It's not some bupkis meme stonk with market cap under $10 billion. WSB can't move TSLA and they are welcome to try for the memes. Even KoGuan Leo and his 1.2 million shares purchase had no obvious effect, what will a few WSB YOLO'ers buying calls possibly do?

If TSLA wants to go up, it will go up. WSB will have nothing at all to do with it.

Are you certain?
over the last 7 weeks, ~130,000,000 shares have traded at incrementally higher prices than lower prices, based on daily data.
Something is giving a ?very slight? upward pressure, that isn't obvious, for sure, seems ?subtle? tho
Accum/Dist line is a money flow indicator (OHLC) with a vol kicker and money seems to be flowing into TSLA at the moment

perhaps a self fulfilling prophecy, but eyeballs (and money) are being attracted with hopefully a very tasty positive feedback loop and a new threshold basis
(plus the deliquescing remoras from SA scrape these threads for hints)

 

[ammulder]

From Teslarati: "A number of key Tesla suppliers from China are temporarily halting their production as the country deals with an ongoing power crunch. The production shutdowns are part of the companies’ efforts to comply with Beijing’s tighter energy consumption policy, which is caused by surging coal and natural gas prices, rising energy demand, and the country’s efforts to cut emissions — to name a few."

Tesla suppliers halt production as China faces power issues

A number of key Tesla suppliers from China are temporarily halting their production as the country deals with an ongoing power crunch. The production shutdowns are part of the companies’ efforts to comply with Beijing’s tighter energy consumption policy, which is caused by surging coal and...

www.teslarati.com

Gosh, if only we knew of any companies that could set those suppliers up with solar and batteries to generate their own power instead of pulling from the grid and/or time shift power from when it’s available to when it’s not…

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442457515472523272

The good news keeps rolling in.

 

[jhm]

From Teslarati: "A number of key Tesla suppliers from China are temporarily halting their production as the country deals with an ongoing power crunch. The production shutdowns are part of the companies’ efforts to comply with Beijing’s tighter energy consumption policy, which is caused by surging coal and natural gas prices, rising energy demand, and the country’s efforts to cut emissions — to name a few."

Tesla suppliers halt production as China faces power issues

A number of key Tesla suppliers from China are temporarily halting their production as the country deals with an ongoing power crunch. The production shutdowns are part of the companies’ efforts to comply with Beijing’s tighter energy consumption policy, which is caused by surging coal and...

www.teslarati.com

Natural gas does not seem to be doing a good job at being a bridge fuel, just sayin'.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any more impossible problems that need to be addressed before we get onto the march of 9's?

I have a very short list for FSD improvements:

• Too much dry steering at low speeds (think your Grandma, but on crack)
• Turns the wheel too early while waiting to make an unprotected left turn
• Just needs to slow down when unsure of path (safe like yer Grandma)
• Doesn't respond to sirens yet

That's about it for me.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Also, the most infuriating part of Blumenthal's tweet is the "untrained drivers" part. Is he aware that Waymo is literally putting driverless vehicles on the road in Arizona? I trust FSD beta with an attentive person behind the wheel more than a LIDAR discoball that can't drive in areas it hasn't premapped.

Strawman. Not relevant what Waymo or anyone else is doing.

The correct response is: No, you are incorrect. All of Tesla’s FSD beta testers have driver’s licenses obtained via the DMV and therefore are in fact ‘trained’ drivers.

You could then go on to say (though clearly it would be a waste since he has no desire to be accurate): Additionally, the ‘trained’ drivers have to summit to a safety evaluation of their driving and obtain a safety score of (whatever it is) or greater to become a FSD beta tester.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I think it’s interesting that many here consider $25k USD as a “low cost“ car. In many countries that is likely close to the median cost of a new car. My definition of a “low cost” car are the $10k-$15k USD hatchbacks that flood out of Korea and Japan every year. Note I don’t think this precludes a $25K Tesla from selling 5 million+ units annually very easily (I think that is a given).

I also think the $25k Tesla will actually expand the total addressable market for new cars in many countries where used cars are popular. Many who buy used cars will likely stretch for a new car instead for a Tesla at that price.

I agree, but please note that a real $25k car, produced in Europe, could easily become a €10-15k car, because incentives.
I was luck enough to buy my Zoe - price €25k - at €12k after incentives and discounts, one year ago. And I'm even renting the battery.
If Shangai and Berlin will make this new Tesla model the game is really over.

 

[SN_8]

Can Pelosi take Blumenthal to a nice lunch already and warn him not to mess with her March '22 calls? If only he was in the House.

(FWIW, I worry not about his political posturing. As others have said, the data is all that matters in the end.)

 

[EVMeister]

Volume is voluminous.

 

[BornToFly]

We are at the upper BB, so I'm guessing we trade fairly flat the next couple days, before climbing end of week (when BB has had more time to move up).

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

The headwinds on FSD are strong. Very strong. Almost hurricane force. Everyone - media, Tesla haters, politicians, Biden admin are united to stop Tesla now. I have never seen a united front against one entity like this. Ever. The confrontation between Musk and NTSB chair will not end in Tesla's favor. This will have a huge, as much as 20%, short term downside impact on Tesla.

Media scumbag queen Lora is now the darling for all Tesla haters.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442290273766109186

I'm not saying I think he's going to be wrong about a potential 20% downside, but I just want to make it clear that we're not related.

 

[2daMoon]

Here is a new video from Best In Tesla about ALSET EHOME who are building homes with Tesla Panels and Powerwall to create a neighborhood Virtual Power Plant, and (IIRC), will include a Tesla car with each home purchase.

Lars goes over the details (they sponsor his channel) and points out how the fundamentals underpinning this company look very good.
(also mentions how a recent shorting spree has brought the AEI SP down to a bargain-basement price)

This is another of many builders who are buying Tesla products for the neighborhoods they are creating. This seems quite bullish to me.

 

[Gigapress]

Chuck Cook - unprotected left turn - has advised some improvements with 10.1.
Gali - monorail test - has advised some improvements with 10.1.

Neither are close to perfect but they are close to being solved problems with a long tail of steady improvements over the next few months.

Any more impossible problems that need to be addressed before we get onto the march of 9's?

Judging by the mistakes it makes and the unstable lines on the visualization, path planning and maps in urban areas need some major improvement. The problem with path planning may be caused by their recent switch to neural net based path planning as described on AI day, so it could likely get better. Previously a lot more of it was written as explicit rule based driving procedures in C++. I would expect rapid improvement on this once they get the tsunami of data that starts next week. Plus, visual perception was the hard part and that seems to be working well.