Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

It was a good meeting, but I really was expecting a few more surprises. I feel like we mostly knew everything here already.

No surprises, just making more and more cars... Which is a surprise to everyone else not here.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The factory ramps and cybertruck schedules are what I expected, but I’m mildly disappointed by the lack of verifiable 4680 progress, and no new gigafactories operational until late 2024 at the very earliest.

Increasing Fremont production by the factor stated would be phenomenal. Any ideas how they plan to accomplish that? I don’t mean to sound negative. I believe Elon, I’d just like to know how.

I was just about to post that my favorite part of it was Elon's response to new gigafactories.

He's focused entirely on more production out of the same factory/production lines. In fact he sounds kinda obsessed with it.

People just don't seem to get that more production out of fewer factories is exponentially better for Tesla's profits/earnings and they think that to get more production you have to have more and more factories. If Tesla can eventually get 2 million production out of Austin, 1 million out of Berlin, 1.5 million out of Shanghai, 750k out of Fremont, that's 5.25 million production just in the 4 factories they have right now.

Part of the reason legacy auto's operational margin is so low is because their production is spread out over so many factories. It's inefficient. Yes more factories will be needed, but Tesla doesn't need to be at this breakneck pace of building factories to hit their production goals.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wow! SH meeting is over, we still have an hour left, and AH volume is already over 1.35M

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There was a single trade of 975K shares @ 4:27 pm (before the AGM started). Likely that was MMs unwinding all the shorting they did between 2:30-3:30 pm to regain control of the SP (they do NOT want it to Close over 800 on Friday, it would be VERY expensive for them):

 

[22522]

Expediting costs are real, and explain the price increases.

 

[c041v]

It was a good meeting, but I really was expecting a few more surprises. I feel like we mostly knew everything here already.

I love this place, but I find that if you take about 20% of the expectation off the top, you will land exactly where the actual presentation does.

I've completed a lot of lines on the TMC Bingo card, but never an X or entire card.

 

[BornToFly]

Are you highly leveraged? These last few weeks you seem very concerned about the SP dropping substantially.

As an options seller making $$$/week, I try to anticipate short term swings in the SP as best I can. I don't want to have to roll anything. If the threat of a stock split was keeping some short sellers at bay, we should see increased selling now. Just like giving your enemy the date of when you are leaving when you haven't won yet. He should have said "It's always something to consider at any time...."

 

[woodisgood]

The factory ramps and cybertruck schedules are what I expected, but I’m mildly disappointed by the lack of verifiable 4680 progress, and no new gigafactories operational until late 2024 at the very earliest.

Increasing Fremont production by the factor stated would be phenomenal. Any ideas how they plan to accomplish that? I don’t mean to sound negative. I believe Elon, I’d just like to know how.

By reducing the floor space that lines take up. Well-known example being gigacastings removing hundreds of robots. Assemble cars quicker and in less space…
Does that get you to 50% more output? It must because obviously Fremont can’t grow space-wise…

 

[strago13]

I think you need a new painter.

Not true. My dad cannot get certain types of paint due to the shortages

 

[DaSwede]

I'm a bit confused when there are individuals feeling that the meeting was underwhelming.

I haven't seen any meetings (apart from this) where:
-20M cars production rate by 2030
-50% increase of production at Fremont (talking it to 900k/year)
- Model Y to be the best selling car of all categories in 2023

These bullets stand strong and, of they can be delivered, will take the SP to the moon!

 

[lafrisbee]

maxPain site claims $750 is still Maxpain. But eyeballing the charts, it looks like less than $790.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pretty sure I heard Elon say that ALL drivers with a 100 will receive 10.2 this weekend. I absolutely will not violate the mod's wishes not to share scores here, but let me just say
View attachment 718937

Lol, but this is what he TWEETED during the AGM:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "FSD Beta 10.2 rolls out Friday midnight to ~1000 owners with perfect 100/100 safety scores. Rollouts will hold for several days after that to see how it goes. If that looks good, beta will gradually begin rolling out to 99 scores & below." / Twitter

 

[RobDickinson]

I'm a bit confused when there are individuals feeling that the meeting was underwhelming.

I haven't seen any meetings (apart from this) where:
-20M cars production rate by 2030

20m cars a year in 2030 has been a stated goal for 2 years now?

I think the industry and reporting took it as speculative, but its what tesla is planning for in capacity terms for factories and cells.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446249641478168578

 

[Ogre]

I'm a bit confused when there are individuals feeling that the meeting was underwhelming.

I haven't seen any meetings (apart from this) where:
-20M cars production rate by 2030
-50% increase of production at Fremont (talking it to 900k/year)
- Model Y to be the best selling car of all categories in 2023

These bullets stand strong and, of they can be delivered, will take the SP to the moon!

I caught that comment early on too. He posted the growth chart and suggested they were on track to continue on the exponential curve with 50% growth continuing into the future. That is A+.

 

[mongo]

The most exciting thing is not put up in 20 foot tall red letters but he did mention it.

The juggernauts of (Austin) Texas and (Berlin) Germany are going to come on line and are going to ramp up. It won't be smooth, it won't happen on a set day or time, but they are saying it will happen, there are no roadblocks other than normal factory setup issues and supply issues. And those aren't expected to be as bad as the Model 3 ramp was.

So be excited that EVERY SINGLE QUARTER going forward will have record production and record deliveries for the foreseeable future.

Q4 2021 will break records!
Q1 2022 will break records!
Q2 2022 will break records!
Q3 2022 will break records!
Q4 2022 will break records!

Is that not enough to be excited about?


Let me channel Paul Revere a second here:

Model Y is coming, Model Y is coming, Model Y is coming!

In other words:

 

[Ogre]

20m cars a year in 2030 has been a stated goal for 2 years now?

I think the industry and reporting took it as speculative, but its what tesla is planning for in capacity terms for factories and cells.

I've heard it previously. To me it was a confirmation that they are on track. That thee hiccoughs in the past year or so are just speed bumps and haven't affected long term growth.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That is what some of us think. Berlin is ready for both and probably starting with 2170. So the supply from Kato should be enough to at least bring us through the first three or four months of production from Texas as it slowly ramps. It could go either way.

Yeah, and Kato Rd only has go it alone through April 2022 when the last of the LFP chemistry Patents expire in the USA. Personally, I'd kill for a Texas Y which is also a 70 KWh powerwall (2-way charger/inverter onboard).

Solar on the garage roof FTW...

Cheers!

 

[FireMedic]

I'm a bit confused when there are individuals feeling that the meeting was underwhelming.

I haven't seen any meetings (apart from this) where:
-20M cars production rate by 2030
-50% increase of production at Fremont (talking it to 900k/year)
- Model Y to be the best selling car of all categories in 2023

These bullets stand strong and, of they can be delivered, will take the SP to the moon!

Also; enough 4680 from Fremont to support Austin! Hello? This is HUGE!

 

[DaSwede]

20m cars a year in 2030 has been a stated goal for 2 years now?

I think the industry and reporting took it as speculative, but its what tesla is planning for in capacity terms for factories and cells.

... And they are working hard to get to the goal. With the expanded production in Fremont, they will have a capacity of 5-6M cars/annum by end of next year. And that is only by using the existing factories. So, production capacity may be 25%+ of that 20M goal with 8 more years to go!

 

[willow_hiller]

Also, fun quirky fact. I'm guessing that the design of the belt buckle had to be "Don't Mess With (Tesla logo)" because in January 2021 some random guy trademarked:

Don't Mess With Tesla
Deep in the Heart of Tesla
and
All My Teslas Live in Texas