Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

It was a good meeting, but I really was expecting a few more surprises. I feel like we mostly knew everything here already.

Indeed, I estimate that we knew 142% of everything announced at the AGM...

Cheers!

 

[Tachyon]

Wonder what’s the TAM of “Don’t Mess with Tesla” belt buckle is?
I expect it to be available for purchase
very soon on Tesla app.

 

[Prunesquallor]

In regards to new factories, the question/answer was about new locations, not about new production facilities. Berlin and Austin have ample room for expansion that will see the total footprint double or treble or more if desired.

think about when Shanghai first stage was finished and started pumping out model 3s - not long after that they built basically another entire factory for model Y there and doubled capacity (And are probably going to do the same for the $25k model).

production expansion does not require “new factory locations”.

This. I don’t think we need to contemplate new Gigas in the US or EU. Austin (and Fremont) and Berlin will just expand as demand warrants. No need to go through the headache of new permits, politics, etc.

 

[Thekiwi]

Also; enough 4680 from Fremont to support Austin! Hello? This is HUGE!

That is positive - but keep in mind that Austin vehicle output will be low initially - and may not start deliveries until December, so Kato may possibly not be anywhere near volume output for some months yet.

 

[RobDickinson]

... And they are working hard to get to the goal. With the expanded production in Fremont, they will have a capacity of 5-6M cars/annum by end of next year. And that is only by using the existing factories. So, production capacity may be 25%+ of that 20M goal with 8 more years to go!

5-6M?

Fremont 750k
Shanghai 750k
Berlin 500k
Austin 1M

I know Berlin and Austin are 2m+ each but they are not yet, and wont be at the end of 2022, Berlin is only 1/4 built ish and Austin will be part empty

 

[Artful Dodger]

Expediting costs are real, and explain the price increases.

Might not need to expedite 4680 cells though. We heard that Kato Rd has been stockpiling them for some time. No reason they can't be stored in Austin or Berlin (if that's the plan for Berlin).

As long as that freight goes via sealift (rather than airlift), extra shipping costs will be minimal.

Personally, I'm hopeful that Berlin produces two Model Y versions: one with LG cells (NMC - Long Rge), and one with CATL LFP packs (Std Rge).

This allows all Kato Rd. 4680 cell production to support Austin, while significantly shortening the supply chain from Fremont.

Again, LFP FTW.

 

[Paul_SF]

... And they are working hard to get to the goal. With the expanded production in Fremont, they will have a capacity of 5-6M cars/annum by end of next year. And that is only by using the existing factories. So, production capacity may be 25%+ of that 20M goal with 8 more years to go!

2030 will definitely be more than 20mil. That was just another warning to the rest of the world that Tesla is not messing around and they have no more time left, they should really do something, besides big statements.

Everyone should read ZERO TO ONE, what we are seeing is exactly what Thiel is explaining always happens with companies that never existed when they come alive and they have no competition.

Amazing times!

DON’T MESS WITH ELON!!!

 

[Ogre]

I think folks who yawned coming out of this missed this fact.

The 4680 is a huge part of Tesla's future plans. As of the last earnings call, it was basically dead in the water due to issued scaling production. Over the past few weeks we've been getting hints they solved those issues. This meeting confirmed that the production issues with the 4680 are behind us and they can start pushing hard on getting all of the awesomeness promised at battery day behind us.

That means:

• Cost of batteries for Model Y goes down by... 50%? That lops $3-5k off the cost of a Model Y. And it will likely perform better as well.
• Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster production are no longer blocked... this is huge.
• Tesla $25k becomes possible.
• Once production ramps up, they will convert the Model 3, Model S, and Model X batteries will drop too.
• Tesla's battery production will increase due to smaller facility requirements.
  
  
• This means Teslas battery cost will going forward be 30-50% less than the competition.

Maybe this isn't "News" because it was widely rumored, but for me anyhow any time really good news moves from the rumor to confirmed category I get amped.

 

[Artful Dodger]

maxPain site claims $750 is still Maxpain. But eyeballing the charts, it looks like less than $790.

That chart is based on Tuesday's end-of-day Open Interest. Wait until Friday 7:00 am for today's data.

 

[jerry33]

- "Model 2" is not a product, all expectations about it silenced

I took that to mean that it wouldn't be called Model 2, not that there wouldn't be any such car.

 

[RobDickinson]

I took that to mean that it wouldn't be called Model 2, not that there wouldn't be any such car.

yeah this, he later said they'd have vehicles in every segment.

A smaller cheaper car is the central point of teslas mission

 

[mongo]

The 4680 is a huge part of Tesla's future plans. As of the last earnings call, it was basically dead in the water due to issued scaling production. Over the past few weeks we've been getting hints they solved those issues. This meeting confirmed that the production issues with the 4680 are behind us and they can start pushing hard on getting all of the awesomeness promised at battery day behind us.

Your statement in bold is incorrect :
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Martin Viecha -- Senior Director, Investor Relations

Thank you very much. And the third question is -- Elon said 4680 cells aren't reliable enough for vehicles. Is this referring to cycle life, degradation, or something else? Please update us on the progress of 4680s and what still needs to be done to make them reliable enough for vehicles.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer


Really, this is not -- we'll definitely make the 4680 reliable enough for vehicles, and we, I think, are at the point where, in limited volume, it is reliable enough for vehicles. Again, going back to limited production is easy, prototype production is easy but high-volume production is hard. There are a number of challenges in transitioning from sort of small-scale production to a large volume production. And not to get too much into the weeds of things, but right now, we have a challenge with basically what's called calendaring, or basically squashing the cathode material to a particular height.

So it just goes through these rollers and gets squashed like pizza dough, basically, but very hard pizza dough. And it's causing -- it's denting the calendar rolls. This is not something that happened when the calendar rolls were smaller, but it is happening when the calendar rolls were bigger. So it's just like -- we were like, OK, we weren't expecting that.
Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

Yeah. It's not like a science problem, it's an engineering problem.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.
Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

It's not a question of if. It's a question of when.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.
Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

And the team is 100% focused on resolving these limiting processes as quickly as possible.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Exactly.
Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

On the reliability side, as Elon mentioned, we have successfully validated performance and the lifetime durability of the 4680 cells produced in Kato, and we're continuing ongoing verification of that reliability. We're actually accruing over one million equivalent miles on our cells that we produce every month. In our testing activities, the focus on that is very clear. We want high-quality cells for all of our customers.


And yeah, we're just focused on the unlucky limiting steps in the facility. And with the engineers focused on those few steps remaining, we're going to break through as fast as possible.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Meantime, we have a massive amount of equipment on order and arriving, for the high-volume cell production in Austin and Berlin. But obviously, given what we've learned with the pilot plant, which is in Fremont, which is really quite a big plant by most standards, we will have to modify a bunch of that equipment. So it won't be able to start immediately. But it seems like -- Andrew, correct me if I'm wrong, but we think, most likely, we will hit an annualized rate of 100-gigawatt hours a year, sometime next year.
Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering


We'll have all the equipment installed to accomplish 100-gigawatt hours, and it's possible that by the end of the year, we will be at an annualized rate of 100-gigawatt hours by the end of the year.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean my guess is more likely than not, above 50% of reaching 100-gigawatt hours a year by the end of next year on the annualized rate, something like that.
Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering


Yup.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

It could shift by a little bit, but as Drew mentioned, nothing fundamental, just a lot of work.
Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering


Yeah. And even to the large roller question, Elon, right. Like on the anode side, the large rollers work great, no concerns. And so we're just learning as we go.

And the nice thing about having that facility on a fast-track like we had it, and we talked about it at battery day, was really de-risking the big factories here. And, yes, we've done and we've learned a lot. And with each successive iteration, the ramp-up and the equipment installation will be faster and more safe.

 

[deshkart]

Back of napkin numbers for Q4 2022:
Deliveries
Fremont - 150K Shanghai 250K Berlin 100K Austin 100K
Auto revenue 30 to 35 billion

Non GAAP EPS for the quarter - $8 to $10 (Estimating 1 million ppl are paying $200 per month on much more mature FSD)

FY 23 EPS should be $50 - P/E *100 = $5000 Stock price

Am I stupid?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Back of napkin numbers for Q4 2022:
Deliveries
Fremont - 150K Shanghai 250K Berlin 100K Austin 100K
Auto revenue 30 to 35 billion

Non GAAP EPS - $8 to $10 (Estimating 1 million ppl are paying $200 per month on much more mature FSD)

FY 23 EPS should be $50 - P/E *100 = $5000 Stock price

Am I stupid?

Your Berlin/Austin numbers might be too low by about 25-50k each

You’ll probably only get a P/E multiple of 50-75 by then unless Wall St really believes Tesla will continue its growth rate the next year

Would still mean a share price of 2500-3000

 

[Zero CO2]

Expediting costs are real, and explain the price increases.

yup 21% increase on ASICs in my industry on both the devices and the expedite fees

 

[RobDickinson]

Not convinced Shanghai will scale to 250k a quarter , and Berlin/Austin depend on their battery plants for those kinds of volumes

 

[RobDickinson]

yup 21% increase on ASICs in my industry on both devices and expedite fees

One reason you can have your performance or long range car sooner than the SR.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Limited bandwidth floating here in the Bahamas . Thanks for the running commentary.

 

[RobDickinson]

Limited bandwidth floating here in the Bahamas .

Sounds like GF Austin!

 

[Ogre]

Your statement in bold is incorrect :
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

No. I was referring to the fact that on the call they mentioned very specifically that they were having trouble moving from small scale production to larger scale production.

From the same transcript.

So it just goes through these rollers and gets squashed like pizza dough, basically, but very hard pizza dough. And it's causing -- it's denting the calendar rolls. This is not something that happened when the calendar rolls were smaller, but it is happening when the calendar rolls were bigger. So it's just like -- we were like, OK, we weren't expecting that.

Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

Yeah. It's not like a science problem, it's an engineering problem.