Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bdy0627]

There's a difference between questionable trial tactics and antics (which - and here I agree with @TNEVol - rarely result in sanctions: losing the case is punishment enough) and actually misapplying a settlement in a way that is inflicting serious harm:

• harming Tesla shareholders,
• applying content based prior restraint on Elon's speech,
• imposing a chilling effect on Elon's speech.

No federal court will gloss over that if it's a U.S. Government agency doing it or asking the court to do it.

But first Elon has to show that his tweets were not under the scope of the settlement.

As Elon likes to say, "Fate loves irony." So far, ironically, the organization that is supposedly protecting shareholders has done nothing but hurt us monetarily. It's about time the SEC does something that actually benefits shareholders rather than short sellers. Losing this contempt motion would be the first time the SEC actually provides a tangible benefit to us (assuming the stock climbs on the news.) Wouldn't fate love that? I think so.

 

[Creekstalker]

GF2 is all about solar. No batteries/cars.

Should've known this I guess.

Where are the Powerwalls made? Those seem like a handy product.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Bear trolls poking their heads in here w/ the pps in the 260s. I got a message for you guys: stick it where the sun don't shine and go back to Seeking Alfafa!

BTW I love how Alfafa changed their comment listing by most recent. That's gotta really frustrate all the Russian and hedge fund trolls. They must be doing overtime to keep their comments visible. And I hope I had a part in that change. I loved trolling you trolls! Ha, ha, ha.... Say hi to Putin for me!!

 

[MP3Mike]

Where are the Powerwalls made? Those seem like a handy product.

The Powerwalls, Powerpacks, and Megapacks are made in GF1. (With cells sourced from both inside and outside of GF1.)

 

[TNEVol]

Would this mean the SEC is barred from re-filing the $420 lawsuit? If yes then I agree that would be an outcome Elon/Tesla (and shareholders) would be happy with.

If not then I don't think Elon would want the settlement to be invalidated - the SEC should be held to what they negotiated.

Here I'm assuming that Elon's motion to allow settlement negotiation details into evidence are beneficial to their position, i.e. that the following assertion is true:

"Mr. Musk would like to address the SEC’s unsupported assertions and submit
documentation reflecting the negotiation history between the SEC and Mr. Musk and Tesla, which undermines the newly-presented interpretation the SEC sets forth in its Reply."​

(I suppose that's actually true, not just zealous advocacy by defense lawyers. Should that evidence be submitted without seal we'll be able to judge that.)

​

I believe asking to cancel the CD should place the case back at square 1 re the 420 tweet. BUT the case would be flavored with the SECs wrongful contempt. I would always take a case when the other side has made an error with the court over a new one. Plus the SEC might then have to negotiate another CD from weakness or dismiss the complaint.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

He is not supposed to tweet anything that could be material. That tweet is a production number that is on the high end. All he had to do was get it pre approved. He's a public CEO of a public company, he can't just do what he wants if his Twitter account is an official communication channel. He created this issue due to his irresponsible 420 tweet.

Not on the high end, it was in the lower half, but close to the midpoint. It was on the high end of the *Model 3 alone* figures stated on the call. I’m fairly sure you already know this.

 

[neroden]

Where have you been? Musk repeated the same numbers that were discussed in the CC 3 weeks earlier. How is that news or material?
If I tell what the high temperature in Cincinnati was yesterday, is that news or material?
What if Musk said that Tesla is selling the Standard Range Model 3 for $35k, is that material?
What if Musk tweets, Model Y base price will be $39k, is that material?
Just simply explain how repeating something that was already public knowledge could in any way be considered newsworthy, market moving, or material?
I swear, I think you know he's done nothing in violation but you just like being obstinate.

Well, according to the idiotic screenshots apparently the SEC is claiming that discussions of the general, well-known advantages of electric cars (no oil changes, smog checks, tuneups, fuel filter, or brake pad replacements), which have been promulgated by Tesla since before the Roadster -- and the way an electric motor doubles as a generator (known for over 100 years) -- "reasonably could contain" material information. :eyeroll:

Come on, SEC. How clueless ARE you people?

Karen on Twitter regarding SEC ludicrousness


Is it possible that the SEC lawyers *actually didn't know this stuff*? That this was new to them? It's decades-old news to any investors. But maybe they *are* that ignorant?

If they are that ignorant, they need outside advisors or witnesses before they start claiming that something is material.

 

[Pras]

Any reasons Elon hasn’t tweeted in two days?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Notalawyernotalawyernotalawyer....

Now, I am not a lawyer but even I know that your nightmare of

is not something that happens in the real world.

I probably ought to mention that I'm not a lawyer.

He’s a lawyer! Burn him!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

@neroden Since you’re quasi-back, I’m curious: anything much come of your amicus brief idea? It does seem like we investors are having our interests supposedly protected by an entity that appears to be hostile towards us.

 

[neroden]

@neroden Since you’re quasi-back, I’m curious: anything much come of your amicus brief idea? It does seem like we investors are having our interests supposedly protected by an entity that appears to be hostile towards us.

Not at this point. Musk's lawyers seem to have made almost all the arguments we would have made, but I still don't know whether they've really alerted the judge that the SEC's bizarre actions are actually hurting real investors.

 

[hacer]

The airline never promised to charge me more later. Also, though not entirely relevant, many airlines leave planes empty and raise prices in spite of the lack of demand to charge a premium to those that must travel last minute.

Why do you think that a current offer is a "promise" that lasts forever? When I ordered my 3 in early January 2018, there was an offer to order EAP and FSD, with a notice (not promise) that I could buy them after delivery at a higher price. Over a year later they made new offers, so since we wanted TACC, I paid $2k for it last week. No plan to use the auto steering feature since it's my wife's car and that's too scary for her.

You also keep saying that you were "shafted." What exactly did you have before that was taken from you? I guess you would be shafted to the nth power should your neighbor win the power ball jackpot. Finally, just to shaft you, I bought FSD for $3k today though I never expect to ever use any of it's features.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Not at this point. Musk's lawyers seem to have made almost all the arguments we would have made, but I still don't know whether they've really alerted the judge that the SEC's bizarre actions are actually hurting real investors.

Ya, they mentioned a drop in their reply, but just in one sentence(I don’t really blame them for this, their job is to protect Musk). I suspect that most actual investors(retail, in particular, would be willing to voice this) at this point are feeling that the SEC is actively damaging us.

 

[carterm2]

What HW does your Model S have? If you bought FSD I'm pretty sure you'll get HW 3.

I recently asked the service rep at Tesla's Fremont Service center about this... I got the blank stare you'd give your kids when they ask if Santa is real. So I have a lot less faith that I will be getting the HW3 (I have a HW2.5 and a HW2)... I am not saying EM is full of *sugar*, I do think he means well. But, imagine the cost of HW3, and factor that into a company that lays off it's sales staff and then needs its regular employees to deliver the last 30,000 cars during the last three weeks. Although, I will be grateful if there is path to upgrading to HW3, I will be pleasantly surprised if it happens.

 

[Krugerrand]

If you are negotiating at that level and you haven't done your due diligence on whether your partner really has the power to negotiate what they are negotiating, then it is very much your fault for being fooled by a con as old as the oldest profession in the world.

That’s what’s wrong with people right there. Blame the victim of the crime. It’s their fault, not the person/people who break the law/lie/cheat/steal/murder/rape etc... Disgusting.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Reading through Troys sheet Teslike Model 3 Survey #3

Q1 ASP for M3 is $60k. Is this figure normally accurate? $60k times higher production rate with less overtime, production hell and referals. With some extra FSD and AP for previous HW2+ cars. Maybe throw in some ZEV credit sales. I am starting so see some really insane cash flows coming up. Is profit in Q1 really off the table?

I would not be surprised if in the Q1 delivery report, Tesla "warns" that their prior guidance of no profit is no longer accurate. Again, there is a wide delta on this. So many variables and so many different sources saying diff things. Deliveries could be 60k or 100k. Who the hell knows at this point?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla is reported to have stopped running the 3rd shift, but that could be easily restarted if supply can't keep up with demand.

Tesla stopped the 3rd S/X shift over a year ago, claiming to be able to make 100k/year on two shifts and minimal OT:
Tesla says Model S, Model X production efficiency much improved | Reuters

Whatever cutback they did recently was on top of this. It's hard to cut part of a shift, so they may have dropped to a single shift and S/X production of only 13-15k this quarter. That plus the price cuts and 75D elimination say to me they're clearing out inventory ahead of a major upgrade/refresh.

I see little chance of changes to the S/X bodies. First, they don't need it. Second, Tesla recently increased the useful life of S/X tooling to 350k units. They couldn't do that if they were about to trash those dies and launch redesigned bodies. But what about the rest of the car? The Model S is the flagship. It's supposed to have the best of everything. Yet:

1. Charging speed - They launched 250 kW v3 and hung S/X out to dry
2. HVAC - 3/Y have a cool newtech vent system, S/X stuck with old fashioned klunkers
3. Motors - AC induction vs. 3/Y's more efficient switched reluctance.
4. Interior design - looks dated next to futuristic 3/Y

I really expected a 400 mile Model S with interior refresh to be the "one more thing" at the Model Y launch. I still expect it soon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

not sure of the dettails, budget just came out. It is most likely there to exclude Tesla. Just like what Ontario did. Quite ironic how Progressive Canada will do this. But fear not, they've painted themselves into a corner as the limit is set now. $1000. AC'd work as there's an additional $100 ac tax.

If the exchange rate goes back under 128.57 CAD per 100.00 USD then $35K USD is less than $45K CAD.

XE: USD / CAD Currency Chart. US Dollar to Canadian Dollar Rates

 

[Yuri_G]

At the risk of alienating everyone...

...this is just effin' sloppy by the SEC lawyers. Come on. If they obsessively followed Musk's tweets, and then researched the company obsessively, they probably could have found a better tweet to hang their case on. And then been generous about giving the company time to respond. Had they been good at their jobs, they might have been able to make a strong case. Instead, they jumped on something TOTALLY innocuous which was old news.

This is really bad legal work. I mean, to play devil's advocate, I could probably do a lot better if I was going after Musk. Because I don't go off half-cocked, not in *court*.


No, sorry. For collecting the manipulative disinformation, I'd go screenshot "Reveal" (they seem to still be up!) and Montana Skeptic (who never took any of his disinformation down).

Anyone remember the article with the false headline (I think it was about Tesla "missing" targets when Tesla beat its targets) which made it into Yahoo Finance newsfeed, and was then corrected, but the *altered headline* never propagated through the Yahoo Finance newsfeed? There WERE screenshots of that posted HERE. Maybe someone can dig 'em up?

Here's one on BI with an edited title, but unchanged URL!

Tesla Model 3 deliveries top Wall Street expectations (TSLA) | Markets Insider

Starts on this page in last year's market action thread.

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[hacer]

https://flight-data.adsbexchange.com/activity?inputSelect=registration&registration=N628TS

Oh crap! The movements of Elon's plane is material information (I know because WAPO told me all about how it hurts Tesla) and that website provides written information about it! Did Elon ask permission from the Tesla lawyers to have his plane move? Somebody call the SEC.