Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

That's very suspicious. Gotta be a street high earnings estimate, but combined with one of the lowest PTs?

Hmm, say hello to the bears? Every firm has a stooge they trot out from time to time.

Another analyst just put out a shocking bear case for Tesla: Citi says stock could drop to $36

Morgan Stanley caused a stir with its "bear case" scenario of $10. Now, Citi is getting in on the act.

www.cnbc.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I wonder if we'll see another MMD tomorrow is early volume is low enough? Might be a good spot to grab 10/22 OTM calls, sell half after the rebound to nearly cover the total cost, and freeroll the other half thru to Friday hoping for a 7% SP pop from earnings.

10/22 $900c essentially doubled from it's MMD lows today. If we do see a $12 MMD tomorrow, I gotta think odds of intra-day recovery are >50%.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Any chance that I'll get to see the trademark "T" in the afterhours chart?

That would be freakin awesome. I will keep an eye out to screenshot!

 

[adiggs]

@TeslaLarry has a good point in regards to the Q3 conference call.
With Elon no longer on Quarter calls, perhaps Tesla will host a more traditional financial call where there are more discussion on finance than on technology.
More importantly, Tesla will likely provide financial info in a form that Financial Analysts can sufficiently understand for them to give quick upgrades.

(To note, personally, I prefer to have Elon and Andrej on these calls)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1450442417174368258

I really, really want to see Elon no longer participating in the quarterly earnings calls. He can do media interviews, or Joe Rogan, or ... lots of paths for Elon to interact with the world and get out technical info. I would even like to see an Elon interview for sometime soon after the quarterly earnings to focus on the strategy / product / execution of the company, with little or no discussion of the financial stuff.

For the quarterly earnings (and more generally) I want to see other Tesla executives front and center, and the quarterly earnings call is the very best platform that Tesla has that will bring exposure for other executives. I want to see these things because I want Tesla showing investors strong evidence of somebody else that is ready to take over if something happens to Elon. SpaceX's Gwynn Shotwell; Apple's Tim Cook to Steve Jobs.


Now all that's missing are Saturday morning earnings releases and phone calls. A setup that's designed to eliminating immediate market trading restricted to the few, as well as a day or 2 between the release and restart of trading, so that everybody has a decent chance at digesting the results and use that information when trading restarts.

 

[Tim S]

ETrade (owned by Morgan Stanley) says analyst consensus is $1.50...

View attachment 722461

ETrade's consensus estimate is up to $1.58 now. Anyone know who the $2.02 is?

 

[WattsHappening]

ETrade's consensus estimate is up to $1.58 now. Anyone know who the $2.02 is?

View attachment 723302

I think I know, but just to confirm, these earnings estimates are non-GAAP, correct? Not only ETrade's but all the other ones we post and discuss?

 

[The Accountant]

I think I know, but just to confirm, these earnings estimates are non-GAAP, correct? Not only ETrade's but all the other ones we post and discuss?

Yes - all non-GAAP

 

[Todd Burch]

Ummm, did they forget about the Bolt? Suddenly, since it didn't blow Tesla out of the water, GM's "Tesla Killer" doesn't even count as an EV that crossed the starting line? LOL.

 

[Fobble]

ETrade's consensus estimate is up to $1.58 now. Anyone know who the $2.02 is?

The Accountant@TMC?

 

[jbcarioca]

I think any company should be looking for ways to put themselves out of business, because if they dont someone else will.

some industries like cars have a very tall and wide gate but its still just a gate.

This is why Elon Musk repeats that there is no such thing as a moat.

 

[capster]

View attachment 723304

Ummm, did they forget about the Bolt? Suddenly, since it didn't blow Tesla out of the water, GM's "Tesla Killer" doesn't even count as an EV that crossed the starting line? LOL.

Oh, here is the advance copy that will be buried in the Corrections and Amplifications section later:

"General Motors’ massive EV ambitions are about to cross the starting line in reverse, as they revert to their norm of grasping for a bailout while pretending to make progress, with the latest ruse being based on hybrids and PHEV‘s."

 

[kanweg]

View attachment 723286
Watching the share price today is like watching paint dry; however, you're in luck . . I have something much more exciting for you: Accounting.
(trying to solicit a response from the grouchy cat . . .you know who you are).

There were some discussions about Free Cash Flow (FCF) a few posts back.
FCF is Cash generated from business operations less spending on Capital Expenditures.
Here is Tesla's FCF for the last 4 quarters and my estimate for Q3 2021:

View attachment 723287

With Free Cash Flow, Tesla is then:
- free to pay down debt
- free to buyback shares
- free to pay dividends
- free to purchase another company
- free to buy Bitcoin
- or free to add to their cash account

Here is how Tesla has used their FCF in the past and what I expect in Q3:
View attachment 723288
As you can see, Tesla has used much of it's FCF to pay down debt and buy Bitcoin.
They raised cash from Equity raises in Q3 & Q4 2020.

My annual projections for FCF are:
$ 4b - 2021
$ 9b - 2022
$15b - 2023
$24b - 2024

There is only so much debt to be paid down; Tesla will be sitting on a pile of cash.

You estimate 1700 FCF that can be spent on for example paying off debt, but you estimate that they pay 1900 in debt off? I’m puzzled.

(I know I overspent this month (car needed new brakes) but that is even more than I overspent. No X-mass presents for the kids then?)

 

[ammulder]

You estimate 1700 FCF that can be spent on for example paying off debt, but you estimate that they pay 1900 in debt off? I’m puzzled.

(I know I overspent this month (car needed new brakes) but that is even more than I overspent. No X-mass presents for the kids then?)

They have loads of cash on hand, so they can afford to pay off more debt than their free cash flow for the quarter.

I'm wondering, given the expected free cash flow moving forward, will they stop taking on debt for new factories / factory expansion? It wasn't clear that they needed debt to build Shanghai, for instance, but they took it when offered. I guess I don't have a great understanding for why it would be advantageous to take on the debt to begin with, but then pay it off early. (Unless they were trying to throw a bone to China by taking on debt from local banks, then once they got whatever goodwill was available, they paid it off.)

 

[The Accountant]

You estimate 1700 FCF that can be spent on for example paying off debt, but you estimate that they pay 1900 in debt off? I’m puzzled.

(I know I overspent this month (car needed new brakes) but that is even more than I overspent. No X-mass presents for the kids then?)

Yes - that's not too easy to follow.
They will use their FCF of $1.7B and then $0.2B from their cash account to pay down debt and leases of $1.9B.
So it like taking your paycheck plus money from your checking account to pay down your credit card.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Maybe this is why stock took a turn south? Nikola suit back on the table.

Nikola allowed to proceed with $2 billion patent lawsuit against Tesla

A federal judge begrudgingly set some new deadlines.

www.theverge.com

 

[Gigapress]

This is why Elon Musk repeats that there is no such thing as a moat.

He says moats are dumb, not that they don't exist. Moats don't provide lasting protection because it doesn't take long for competition to devise a way cross the moat.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

TMC Investors Forum... where subtle brags aren't so subtle.

So here's mine. I just exercised all the Jan '22 200 calls that I picked up for peanuts at the bottom of the covid drop last year (then as deep OTM 1000 presplit leaps). To think that at the time I wasn't even sure they would end up in the money, let alone appreciate more than 7000%.

Any chance that I'll get to see the trademark "T" in the afterhours chart?

Another very subtle brag. You guys are good. Why did you sell now? 8000% would be better. Just curious because I have a Jan '22 600 call I've been sitting on for about a year. I only have a measly 200% return so far, but have been trying to figure out when to sell it. Also, I've only been having five figure daily increases lately. I'm glad I have you guys around to keep me humble.

 

[The Accountant]

They have loads of cash on hand, so they can afford to pay off more debt than their free cash flow for the quarter.

I'm wondering, given the expected free cash flow moving forward, will they stop taking on debt for new factories / factory expansion? It wasn't clear that they needed debt to build Shanghai, for instance, but they took it when offered. I guess I don't have a great understanding for why it would be advantageous to take on the debt to begin with, but then pay it off early. (Unless they were trying to throw a bone to China by taking on debt from local banks, then once they got whatever goodwill was available, they paid it off.)

Good question. I can't wrap my head around these Treasury Operations . . . when to take on debt and when not to.
For example, I thought I just read that Tesla was getting a favorable loan from a German locality.
I guess if the interest rate terms are low enough, it does not hurt so much to take on debt even with a stack of cash on hand.

 

[StealthP3D]

Peter,
In your scenario you would just roll the Leaps up and out and probably collect extra premium for doing so. Again, NOT investment advice. All option systems/investment systems work until they don't.

Some options systems don't work until they do. In other words, they are designed to have constant small losses over long periods of time until eventually they pay out big time. Some option systems have constant small payouts with very occasional large losses. It all depends on how you want to structure them, there are endless ways. None of them have guaranteed returns over the long-term, that's up to the timing and insight of the operator.

 

[stealthyc]

Another very subtle brag. You guys are good. Why did you sell now? 8000% would be better. Just curious because I have a Jan '22 600 call I've been sitting on for about a year. I only have a measly 200% return so far, but have been trying to figure out when to sell it. Also, I've only been having five figure daily increases lately. I'm glad I have you guys around to keep me humble.

He did not sell, he exercised