Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Way more faith in people, than I. And specifically people often need to experience extreme consequences to change their views.

Here’s a little story for you; my spouse and I had to take the driver’s test because we’d moved to a different country. We took it on the same day, had the same tester. I performed a particular maneuver and got docked for it. My spouse performed the exact same maneuver and wasn’t docked for it. We know this for a fact because we compared notes and our test results.

Adding: the tester was a couple decades younger than us and I’m quite sure we both have extensively more driving experience and could drive circles around them (and I’m a substantially better driver than my spouse).

Obviously the tester just knew you'd hold yourself to a higher standard.

 

[Buckminster]

Traditional guidelines for posting tonight:

1. If in doubt, don't post
2. Add value - don't post SP or quotes from the presentation
3. Group your points together into bigger posts
4. Don't post until you have caught up and confirmed it hasn't already been posted
5. No fake links
6. No fake numbers

Tesla investor page here:
Tesla Investor Relations

Tesla YT for call here:
https://www.youtube.com/tesla/featured

Dave covering earnings in 1 hour:

 

[Skipdd]

It's been a LONG time since I've seen a post where I've been completely disgusted by on TMC and this is one of them.

She wants to kick Elon Musk in the head and you post this?!?

Tesla's main priority is safety. If they raised the 5 point safety scale to 20 points, Tesla would dominate this. And also make everyone else look bad.

Tesla moves to 17 out of 20 and everyone else stays at 5.

Disagree is insufficient, we need a disgust button.

Almost never give disagrees. “Disgust and @jbcarioca” in the same thought process does not compute. Do not agree w putting Ms Cummings in role. Certainly don’t agree with her over the top posts. But I appreciate hearing/reading things that drive in a different direction. For example, some interesting points made about good rationale for having standards/regulations in place that will increase probability of safety. Things I wouldn’t know w/o reading them here. I (mostly) trust Tesla, but don’t trust the other auto manufacturers. “Mostly,” because even Tesla doesn’t have a perfect track record. eMMC failures causing MCU to break were a risk, which they fought. Is Tesla better than the others? Yes, hands down. When it comes to safety though, I want more than just Tesla looking at it.

 

[neverdone]

My most recent service was a month away, and then the pushed it back a couple of weeks (Oct 25 is the new date). This is the first time in over eight years that service hasn't been within a day or two. Also it wasn't at the nearest SC because that wait time was even longer.

I just had a driver's seat replaced (under extended warranty) for my 2016 Model X; which I thought would be virtually impossible since Tesla does not make tan leather seats anymore. And the work was done at my hometown (Loveland CO) service center; just minutes way instead of having to driver 1+ hour to Denver. I am really pleased.

 

[jbcarioca]

I have two computer science degrees and I've taught at the university level. It is my opinion that she should lose her position at the university for this, but that is unlikely to happen. I also question her computer science knowledge if she is investing in LIDAR as a path towards autonomy. I have very little experience in computer vision but it was enough for me to instantly agree with Elon's views on vision and LIDAR.

I am disappointed to see people defending her.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429112183191900170

 

[Accident]

Interactive Brokers sent out a note yesterday that said implied movement after earnings is 4.3%. Not sure how they calculate it.

FWIW they also gave consensus EPS as 1.49 and revenue as 13.4 B.

The implied move is calculated from options pricing and implied volatility. I know there is a formula, but it basically tells you the percentage a stock needs to move for a straddle to break even. If you have calls or puts it helps to calculate the IV crush.

 

[jhm]

NHTSA’s incoming senior safety adviser has a serious anti-Tesla Autopilot and FSD bias

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has recently confirmed that Duke University professor Missy Cummings is poised to be named as its new senior safety adviser. While her credentials as a computer science professor and background as a person knowledgeable about autonomous...

www.teslarati.com

"It should be noted that Dr. Cummings’ seat at Veoneer was not disclosed when she published a paper (which was later updated to remove inaccurate details about a fatal Tesla crash) criticizing systems such as Autopilot for their possible dangers. And so far, the incoming NHTSA senior safety adviser has not shared if she would be leaving her post at the Swedish LIDAR company, especially since she would soon be advising a US safety agency on driver-assist systems that adopt both LIDAR and non-LIDAR solutions.​

​

"Interestingly enough, Dr. Cummings’ criticism of Tesla and its Autopilot and FSD programs seems to stem from the fact that the company’s vehicles lack of equipment such as the LIDAR sensors provided by Veoneer. In an appearance at The Robot Brains Podcast earlier this year, the Duke University professor remarked that she is “basically an albatross around Elon’s and Tesla’s neck” and that “Where (she’s) going after is his (Elon Musk’s) desire to drop radar off of his cars and now go to vision-only.”​

Problematic appointment for NHTSA at a time when they are struggling for relevance in a Market increasingly driven by pace of innovation.

In principle, one can do a blinded test of whether mixing different sensor types performs better than a system that relies on video only. Optimizes the software for both systems. Assign each beta tester randomly to either system. The drivers can be blind to which test group they have been assigned. Then gather performance data and do statistical tests to determine whether one system is better than the other. Blinding drivers is helpful to rule out any preference a driver may have for one system or another.

A test like this can pretty much put an end to the objection that Cummings is making. My hunch is that Tesla already knows quite well that a vision only system is more reliable. Some of us here have speculated that the system can be more stable interpreting objects in the environment when radar or even LIDAR add informational and inferential instabilities to the system. If this is indeed what Tesla has learned of years of testing, they should be able to demonstrate it with a well designed blinded test. Indeed, when Tesla is developing any new version of the system, there may be value in doing a proper randomized, blinded trial.

One more thing... I think Tesla should develop the Bot and train it to drive any car. This could serve as a useful control when other competitors are testing their self-driving systems. Compare a human using the self-driving system to the Tesla Bot driving the car with and without the self-driving system. If the self-driving system cannot demonstrate safer outcomes than the Tesla Bot without self-driving, it should not be permitted to deploy to the general public.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429112183191900170

I think we have discovered our first time traveler or else I would really like to know how she came to such certainty about anything? Also I think she is someone who consider FSD solved only if it's error free. She's one of those.....

 

[StealthP3D]

My MY with FSD and Acceleration Boost was recently totaled. My insurance company does not want to cover it since it is only a software addon. And as noted above, we know Tesla is unwilling to transfer the license from one car to another. So I am sitting here holding the bag on $12k worth of accessories for my car unless I file a civil case with the person that hit me to try to recoup the loss. This experience has certainly made me strongly consider if I want to pay for FSD on my replacement vehicle or any vehicle in the future until insurance companies catch up and place a value on software or Tesla decides that I am just buying a software license for one seat. Not presently very happy.

Your beef is with your insurance company and this has very little to do with investing in Tesla. Your insurance needs to pay you the full market value of your totaled car (which includes the FSD software). I'm so tired of hearing people complain they are being paid depreciated amounts because their car is no longer brand new. If so worried about that, just buy a policy that will cover the replacement of the slightly used but totaled car with a brand new on of the same specs. This is not a problem with Tesla.

 

[lafrisbee]

Here is the thing about Missy and FSD...
Tesla now has identified "The Enemy." Which is about as good as it gets. When Tesla convinces her the conflict is over. How cool is that! And from what Jabbie tells us she will look at the facts. I find it to be a perfect situation. A sensible person with a publically stated anti FSD mindset who will be swayed by FACTS.
This is closer to Reagan/Gorbichev now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interactive Brokers sent out a note yesterday that said implied movement after earnings is 4.3%.

And so there it is: a tgt close today of $863.28 to avoid hitting an ATH post-earnings. /s

Cheers!

 

[RobDickinson]

Here is the thing about Missy and FSD...
Tesla now has identified "The Enemy." Which is about as good as it gets. When Tesla convinces her the conflict is over. How cool is that! And from what Jabbie tells us she will look at the facts. I find it to be a perfect situation. A sensible person with a publically stated anti FSD mindset who will be swayed by FACTS.
This is closer to Reagan/Gorbichev now.

TSLAQ like enemies are never convinced. They Shift goal posts.

This is about slowing down Tesla so the competition can catch up.


As a Tesla shareholder and owner/driver I absolutely want tesla to use best practice and make AP/FSD as safe as possible. I dont want unreasonable restrictions placed on Tesla to delay innovation which is ultimately saving lives in the real world today.

 

[Skipdd]

TSLAQ like enemies are never convinced. They Shift goal posts.

This is about slowing down Tesla so the competition can catch up.


As a Tesla shareholder and owner/driver I absolutely want tesla to use best practice and make AP/FSD as safe as possible. I dont want unreasonable restrictions placed on Tesla to delay innovation which is ultimately saving lives in the real world today.

The competition will never catch up (most don’t even understand the game). Cue mental image of Charlie Chaplin and the Keystone Cops..

 

[TheTalkingMule]

One of these quarters I'd like it established what the analyst consensus is BEFORE we announce earnings. I'd also like to stop seeing estimates change AFTER the quarter has ended!

 

[Duffer]

i can’t but laugh a bit at all the reactions I’ve seen across the internet about this NHSTA situation. Everyone’s making it seems like the NHSTA has final authority over anything and everything.

If Tesla feels like they’re being targeted by any recall or fine, they can fight it and sue and this advisory role appointment will make this case for sueing exponentially easier. Tesla lawyers are probably rolling on the ground laughing right now. Tesla will have a mountain of data to show, NHSTA will have no data and will have to defend that they’re corrupt….the most blatant being the payments from Lidar companies since its crystal clear conflict of interest.

Will the NHSTA try to slow down or stop FSD? Most likely

Will they end up having to back down? With this revelation…..it’ll be much, much likely now

And once the NHSTA loses in court, they lose all of their leverage.

Agreed... IF Tesla is being targeted. What happens if every OEM's driver assist program is stopped pending a "thorough" aka never ending safety review? The other OEM's have developed their "Me Too, Me Too" drivers assistance platforms only because of Tesla. I'm sure that they would be happy to return that money to their ICE R&D budgets.

FSD is yet another reason to purchase a Tesla vs the lower cost compliance cars that the other OEM's are/will be selling. Would the lack of FSD slow down Tesla's sales somewhat? Possibly. Would the resulting "safety recall" sugar-storm FUD be a PITA? Yes.

 

[Words of HABIT]

(and I’m a substantially better driver than my spouse).

Has Tesla driving scorecard confirmed or denied your statement?

 

[AudubonB]

Pro tip: If you believe your spouse is a better better-at-following-some-really-whacko-restrictions driver than you, alter your driver sitting (etc) profiles to match the other party, and then surreptitiously swap keys for the one-week (etc.) "testing" period.

 

[Words of HABIT]

One of these quarters I'd like it established what the analyst consensus is BEFORE we announce earnings. I'd also like to stop seeing estimates change AFTER the quarter has ended!

Agree.
I see Yahoo Finance has yet again (four times in the last couple of weeks) raised their estimate today to $1.58 EPS (Yesterday it was $1.50 EPS). Really? Change your estimate on Earnings Release day? Ha ha. Market Consensus are still clueless.

 

[henchman24]

Agree.
I see Yahoo Finance has yet again (four times in the last couple of weeks) raised their estimate today to $1.58 EPS (Yesterday it was $1.50 EPS). Really? Change your estimate on Earnings Relase day? Ha ha. Market Consensus are still clueless.

View attachment 723729

EPS always moves right before earnings, for nearly every company. This is a pretty common practice.

 

[SOULPEDL]

People seem a little edgy today. I'm taking a nap, wake up for the surprise.
I expect the usual drop then back on track by the weekend. Riding it out, ready to buy.