We live in a time were bubble-think disinformation mediated by social media is literally an epidemic crisis. It's very important for society to understand how bubble-think works so as to safeguard from it. For instance, TSLAQ is an information bubble and exists at a social level, not individual level. I know at least one person, a co-worker, who was taken in by TSLAQ and lost a lot of money shorting Tesla. As an individual he has come to realize that shorting Tesla is a really dumb idea and he has moved on with his life. TSLAQ as a social bubble, however, rolls right along as if nothing has been learned. That is, people like my co-worker, who wake up to reality, are not really welcome to voice that within TSLAQ circles. Indeed, they are often driven out. So as someone moves past the cognitive limitations of TSLAQ what they have learned is ejected from the bubble. The bubble retains as much ignorance as it had before people like my co-worker woke up to reality. The issue is whether the the bubble can attract new uninformed members as quickly as members wise up and exit the bubble. If so, the bubble can persist a very long time. Additionally, those who remain the longest with the bubble are likely the least cognitively equipped person or otherwise motivated participants in disinformation, e.g., paid shills.
So is TMC a social bubble? Perhaps. Some of the dynamics are similar. Members with divergent views tend not to stick around for long. Certainly we have had notable members who have "woke up" to how Elon Musk cannot be trusted, poor Tesla service will destroy the company, etc. It is actually a healthy sign that we have these debates from time to time. At any rate, we cannot rule out the possibility that TMC could become a social bubble which is unhinged from reality. I do not believe this is presently the case however. The basic epistemological question we must always ask ourselves is, how would I know if I were wrong? Is there any external source of information that could persuade me that Tesla is on the wrong track? Indeed there are. We pour over SEC filings and other statements from Tesla. These are external sources of information. If Tesla were on the wrong path as evidenced by say quarterly filings, would we be able to modify our views of Tesla a going concern? I believe that for most of us the answer is yes. Personally, my investment thesis is based on Tesla being able to sustain 50% annual growth on average over many years. We see in Q3 that Tesla is able grow revenue 57% y/y, gross profit 77%, and deliveries 73%. So by multiple metrics we get robust confirmation that Tesla is indeed growing by about 50% annually. Had any of these metrics been below 40%, most of us would be very concerned and would have robust debate about whether this is just a short-term issue to be resolve in the coming year. If two-year or three-year growth were to slow below 40% CAGR, I think many of us would be able to admit that Tesla is no longer the growth engine it once was. We'd have to change our investment thesis away from one that was based on assumed 50% growth. (Tesla may still be a very good investment even with slower growth or not.) This is all quite intellectually healthy. I believe that TMC will be able to navigate such changes in the investment theses we hold.
On the other hand, TSLAQ seems unable to do this. Do they read the quarterly reports? Yes, many do. But is this for them an external source of credible information? Sadly, no. They do not view any statements from Tesla as credible. They operate with a hermeneutic of suspicion regarding Tesla's management. That is, they believe that management is trying to deceive them and the public at every turn. Hoaxes! Lies! Fraud! So when Tesla reports 73% growth in deliveries, they immediately hold that information is suspicion. The discount this in any number of ways. It might be an accounting trick. It might be cover for some worse fraud or deception. And on and on. This sort of cynical, undisciplined hyper-skepticism is really a form of disinformation. Essentially, it gives license to bubble-think members to utterly disregard Tesla as an external inform source. TSLAQ as group appears to lack any ability to take in external information without transforming it into their own disinformation. Even losing billions shorting Tesla is transformed into disinformation when they console themselves that the market price for Tesla is just a bubble, which ought to burst sometime soon. Again the less cognitively impaired ones will take their losses and walk away from the TSLAQ bubble, but those who remain will have learned nothing. Indeed those who remain will embraces increasingly bizarre delusions to suppress psychologically and sociologically all information contrary to their collective bubble-think.
Now are there Tesla bears who are not part of TSLAQ? I would hope so. We genuinely need there to be well informed participants who scrutinize Tesla. For such a person to be worth listening to, they have be willing to take SEC filings and other external sources of information at face value. They really ought to have genuine respect for Elon Musk and be willing to believe what Tesla's management has to say. Indeed Musk and Tesla's management generally often have many critical things to say about the company. If you listen carefully you will hear what risks management is aware of and probably mitigating in someway. There is little reason for cognitively competent bull and bears to disagree on what the real risks are. The substantial disagreement is on how likely and severe these risks may be and how likely management will be able to mitigate or work around these risks. For example, management is clear that Tesla is facing supply chain problems. This is real risk that both bulls and bear need to understand and accept. The bear could argue that these supply chain risks are too high and could imperil Tesla's future. Fair enough, bulls can also look at those same risks and conclude that management will work through those risks with agility and that the balance sheet is strong enough to financially sustain these headwinds. In confronting real risks, any of us can be bullish or bearish to some extent. And it is particularly healthy for investors to be able to acknowledge our doubts and worries as well as the reasons why we accept the risk/reward profile of the investment. My own opinion is that TMC is a place were we can process both beliefs and doubts regarding Tesla in a health, constructive and adaptive manner.
Cheers!
