Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[22522]

I think your problem is that most people buying a Tesla can barely afford buying the car for ~$50k they don't have anywhere near $909k to invest in TSLA.

Most Tesla owners I know don't own any TSLA stock. In fact they don't own any stock for a single company, they only own mutual funds in their retirement accounts.

Thank you.

I have zero money outside my retirement account, but the money in the IRA has by and large been moved to TSLA.

So for this to be correct Tesla customers would need to read Peter Lynch's book.

... Taking a cue from Harry Dean Stanton, and I guess Steve Jobs' dad, the Repo Man: "You find one in every car" referring to "little tree fresh as a breeze" air fresheners and Dianetics books...

If Tesla left a copy of One Up on Wall Street in every car they sold, the demand for stock would exceed supply and my thesis would be correct?

Maybe it could be cued up instead of John Denver and Barry Manilow, so no hard copy needed?

 

[The Accountant]

For those of you fixated on the P/E ratio, something to chew on . . . . .
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months
Model assumes:
- 890k deliveries in 2021 and 1.4m in 2022.
- Margins flat to Q3 2020 for all future quarters
- Modest growth in R&D and SG&A

Today the P/E ratio is at 291 and will likely go to 194 at year end using the current $900 share price (See Yellow boxes below).
By Q4 2022, the model shows $11.07 in GAAP EPS getting us to an 81 P/E Ratio at $900; at a $1800 share price, P/E is at 163 (see Orange boxes)
The table at the bottom shows the same numbers using Non-GAAP EPS for those of you who prefer that metric.

 

[CLK350]

Each Tesla vehicle sold creates strong conviction with a person who can hold 1000 shares of TSLA stock.

Herein lies the incorrect assumption: in my (admittedly unscientific/ very limited) survey, most Tesla owners I have met have no idea/ nor interest in buying TSLA the stock.

 

[Paul_SF]

For those of you fixated on the P/E ratio, something to chew on . . . . .
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months
Model assumes:
- 890k deliveries in 2021 and 1.4m in 2022.
- Margins flat to Q3 2020 for all future quarters
- Modest growth in R&D and SG&A

Today the P/E ratio is at 291 and will likely go to 194 at year end using the current $900 share price (See Yellow boxes below).
By Q4 2022, the model shows $11.07 in GAAP EPS getting us to an 81 P/E Ratio at $900; at a $1800 share price, P/E is at 163 (see Orange boxes)
The table at the bottom shows the same numbers using Non-GAAP EPS for those of you who prefer that metric.

View attachment 725130

This does mean TSLA is overvalued or undervalued today?

 

[22522]

You must be joking. Everybody who buys a $50k car must necessarily have $900k ready and waiting to invest? And that's not even the part about how many people do you know outside this forum who bought a car and then invested in the company that made it?

Thank you for bringing things into line.

If I divide the float by the number of Tesla owners (2,000,000) I get 400 shares per which translates into a retirement savings of $364K.

So if the average Tesla owner has $300K in retirement savings and were getting good financial advice rather than bad, they would consume essentially the entire float.

So if:

A) Tesla does not ship junk, and
B) Peter's book is complimentary (you find one in every car), and
C) Customers recognize that the Magellan Fund [run by Peter] made Fidelity Investments

The entire float will be absorbed by high conviction customers and the stock price response to demand will be stiff?

 

[CLK350]

FYI ..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452348126753349640

 

[Mengy]

For those of you fixated on the P/E ratio, something to chew on . . . . .
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months
Model assumes:
- 890k deliveries in 2021 and 1.4m in 2022.
- Margins flat to Q3 2020 for all future quarters
- Modest growth in R&D and SG&A

Today the P/E ratio is at 291 and will likely go to 194 at year end using the current $900 share price (See Yellow boxes below).
By Q4 2022, the model shows $11.07 in GAAP EPS getting us to an 81 P/E Ratio at $900; at a $1800 share price, P/E is at 163 (see Orange boxes)
The table at the bottom shows the same numbers using Non-GAAP EPS for those of you who prefer that metric.

View attachment 725130

Man, ain't that something to look at. I have a feeling the share price might increase faster than I'm expecting it to...



.... but I'm okay with that.

 

[st_lopes]

Are we allowed to talk about personal FSD experiences in this thread? I know the mods want to keep this thread only about investing so not sure if I can share my FSD drive videos here.

Overall, FSD is really good, but it's definitely not ready for the general public yet. I had to take over probably 10 times in a 15 minute drive and sometimes it would just disengage on its own. I'm still very impressed by its current capability though. Hopefully further iterations will work out the kinks like the turning angle, objection recognition, etc.

Some of the "lowlights" from my drive today (1st day getting FSD!!!!)

Not recognizing the gate. It was going full speed ahead and I braked last second lol

Choosing the wrong lane after turning left. This probably wouldn't happen if there was a car in the inside turning lane.

Not recognizing the lane merge and just disengages
Front angle -

Left angle -

Rollback of 10.3 is ongoing. Seems several bugs in this release. Part of the journey unfortunately.

 

[MP3Mike]

I have zero money outside my retirement account, but the money in the IRA has by and large been moved to TSLA.

So if the average Tesla owner has $300K in retirement savings and were getting good financial advice rather than bad, they would consume essentially the entire float.

Maybe you should also look at the average balance people have in retirement accounts: 401(k) Balance: How You Compare to Others Your Age

• Twentysomethings (Age 20–29): Average 401(k) balance: $10,500​

• Thirtysomethings (Age 30–39): Average 401(k) balance: $38,400​

• Fortysomethings (Age 40–49): Average 401(k) balance: $93,400​

• Fiftysomethings (Age 50–59): Average 401(k) balance: $160,000​

• Sixtysomethings (Age 60–69): Average 401(k) balance: $182,100​

• Seventysomethings (Age 70–79): Average 401(k) balance: $171,400​

The average person isn't even buying 400 shares of TSLA period. Not even if they sold everything they owned and invested every cent they could in it. (Which a lot of people can't, their 401k doesn't allow it.)

 

[bballshinobi]

Rollback of 10.3 is ongoing. Seems several bugs in this release. Part of the journey unfortunately.

Yea I guess they are aware of the issue too:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla FSD Beta is starting to save lives

Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Beta are, at their core, safety systems. They may be advanced enough to make driving tasks extremely easy and convenient, but ultimately, CEO Elon Musk has been consistent with the idea that Tesla’s advanced driver-assist technologies are being developed...

www.teslarati.com

"FSD Beta tester @FrenchieEAP, for example, recently shared a story about a moment when his Model 3 was sitting at a red light with the Full Self-Driving Beta engaged. When the light turned green, the all-electric sedan started moving forward — before braking suddenly. The driver initially thought that the FSD Beta was stopping for no reason, but a second later, the Model 3 owner realized that a cyclist had actually jumped a red light. The FSD Beta just saw the cyclist before he did.​

"Fellow FSD Beta tester Geoff Coffelt, who also drives a Model 3, shared a somewhat similar experience. According to the Tesla owner, his Model 3 initially refused to go at a green light, and he later realized that this was because another motorist was coming the wrong way up a one-way road that it was turning on to. The Model 3 driver noted that he actually had no idea about the impending danger since he was solely focused on looking for other vehicles that were coming from the proper direction."​

Well-done, Otto. Good job! Upload these videos to the NHTSA, please.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Just switched over from the FSD thread. 10.3 is apparently a disaster and is being pulled back from the fleet. Not sure if it is a reversion or a complete pull. If there are accidents caused by this, God only knows what this does to the stock price.

Well, thank goodness it's at best at Level 2, with the driver in control and responsible at all times...

 

[mongo]

Yea I guess they are aware of the issue too:

View attachment 725159

That was before the 10.3 release.... this is after:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452345284483235841

 

[Tslynk67]

This does mean TSLA is overvalued or undervalued today?

Yes!

 

[jerry33]

Since I am silly from my improved financial situation I'd pick the silliest of the lot...
So in descending order I'd go:
Musketeer

That would be this one. Sounds similar to Mouseketeer.

 

[22522]

Maybe you should also look at the average balance people have in retirement accounts: 401(k) Balance: How You Compare to Others Your Age

• Twentysomethings (Age 20–29): Average 401(k) balance: $10,500​

• Thirtysomethings (Age 30–39): Average 401(k) balance: $38,400​

• Fortysomethings (Age 40–49): Average 401(k) balance: $93,400​

• Fiftysomethings (Age 50–59): Average 401(k) balance: $160,000​

• Sixtysomethings (Age 60–69): Average 401(k) balance: $182,100​

• Seventysomethings (Age 70–79): Average 401(k) balance: $171,400​

The average person isn't even buying 400 shares of TSLA period. Not even if they sold everything they owned and invested every cent they could in it. (Which a lot of people can't, their 401k doesn't allow it.)

Thank you.

I am wondering about the existing Tesla owner demographic, which is different than the average person. If they are in the top 10% (of something) , they have $360K in a narrow definition of retirement savings.

...

Average Retirement Savings, Median, and Percentiles in the US - DQYDJ

Average, median, top 1% retirement savings for United States households in 2023. Plus calculator to compare your retirement percentile.

dqydj.com

Maybe Cathie and other mutual funds that have fixed ratio rules will be the only source of shares going forward?

I don't see where the shares needed to meet demand will come from. If "you find one in every car" happens with Peter's book.

In other words, Tesla shorts (and other financial advisors who should be thrown into the same bucket of bad advisors) are the only reason anyone sells. If people are getting good advise, and do not have stupid rules, they will not sell.

There should be no supply of TSLA stock, if people were well advised.

 

[winfield100]

I live in dichotomy - on one hand I wear my clothes until they fall apart, I look like a hobo, if you saw me on the street, you'd swear I'm living in a dumpster...

Conversely, I just ordered a limited-edition printing of Frank Herbert's Dune for $700, without even pausing to consider... I guess it's a matter of individual priorities...

@Lycanthrope
you sound like you need a few copies of the large format, like around 8.5x11 inch Analog magazines, especially the one with the sandworm, Shihulud,
somewhere maybe in my basement…….

 

[jerry33]

I live in dichotomy - on one hand I wear my clothes until they fall apart, I look like a hobo, if you saw me on the street, you'd swear I'm living in a dumpster...

Conversely, I just ordered a limited-edition printing of Frank Herbert's Dune for $700, without even pausing to consider... I guess it's a matter of individual priorities...

I believe it was Oscar Wilde that said: I can forgo the necessities if I can have the luxuries.

 

[MXWing]

Two terms for teslanaire terms
Soft: total share value qualifies for the amount
Hard: Profit from TSLA

another term for us real poor folk..or were real poor.
semi-teslinaire: Half a millionaire
I am a Hard Semi-teslaniare now...
Hmmm?

I don't get why there is even debate on the definition.

You have no TSLA position today. You by a million worth tomorrow and you are a Teslanaire?

Has to come from gains ONLY.

 

[2daMoon]

I don't get why there is even debate on the definition.

You have no TSLA position today. You by a million worth tomorrow and you are a Teslanaire?

Has to come from gains ONLY.

Thanks for the perspective. I'm jiggy with it.
No need to rush the process. Besides, what would the neighbors say? /s
Whether I eclipse the mark above original investment in 2022 or 2023, the result is the same. Never was all that keen on status symbols anywho.

Guess I'll have to raise the bar a smidgen... ...as this is gonna happen, regardless.