Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

I have absolutely no shot of getting FSD. I get 100s driving around my local neighborhood but merging onto the Grand Central going to work and coming home is an absolute disaster of a safety score. Don’t know how it could be otherwise….

Have had three accidents in my driving career of 30 plus years. Two rear endings and a side swipe on the highway. All were found to be 100% the fault of the other driver (the side swipe with the help of my trusty TeslaCam). This means nothing in the end.

Eh. One day. Have subsidized FSD from day one and will not complain, but I maintain that a true test of autonomous driving will be merging onto and driving on these NYC highways. That and driving around in Mumbai .

No, not really. Mumbai wins!

 

[BLSmith2112]

This statement is such a meme but it is absolutely true.

Once you break through that first million, the second and third just kind of show up and you have no idea how that happened.

At my first million last November, can’t believe it hasn’t been a year and I’m up an additional $364,000. I only make 50k/yr and the surreal feeling completely messes with me psychologically. It’s actually paralyzing, but as I’m paralyzed I’m taking no actions and continuing to hold which further increases net worth faster. It’s like a flywheel. The only way I bring myself back down to earth is two things: think of it in terms of percentages, not dollars, and continue the 9-5 grind while only surviving off my limited liquid.

 

[jbcarioca]

Actually, it was Iridium's lower cost competitor, Globalstar. I bought them on the way down towards bankruptcy thinking they could pull it off but not enough people were willing to pay nearly $2/minute and carry a satellite phone around that was the size of large brick costing over a thousand dollars at the time. Launch costs were high, satellites and ground stations were expensive to build and operate and the market couldn't support it. The main problem was that cellular had good enough coverage for most people. Fortunately, it was not one of my high conviction picks or a large percent of my portfolio.

I was a very early Iridium customer, when the prices were far above the $1000 and $2 per minute. That was in 2002. At time time I had exactly zero communication available on my rather remote island in the Bahamas and I still required regular contact with clients. The service required a biggish antenna and a huge 'handset' itself weighing far oo much. The lags were enough to make it hard to use. Clients, oddly, did not seem to mind because it seemed so exotic to them.

As with many first movers they really did not improve. Soon we had a better and cheaper alternative and quit Iridium.

When we think fo Tesla original roadster then consider today, it's obvious that continuous reinvention si the way to go. Were this to have been today, Starlink would be installed as quickly as could be done. Skipping Starlink.

My spouse commented how totally unlike our 2014 P85DL was to the 2021 Plaid. At the same US$ prices actually quite a bit cheaper after inflation, an so much better there's no comparison.

This, the Iridium story vs Starlink is a perfect analogy to the Musk-led companies constantly reinventing themselves.

 

[Tslynk67]

Today there are many posts on clipping coupons, living within means, and so forth. So, the old saying is true: "The richer we are, the more frugal we are" I used to buy things that I want. These days, I only buy things that I need ....

I live in dichotomy - on one hand I wear my clothes until they fall apart, I look like a hobo, if you saw me on the street, you'd swear I'm living in a dumpster...

Conversely, I just ordered a limited-edition printing of Frank Herbert's Dune for $700, without even pausing to consider... I guess it's a matter of individual priorities...

 

[Lessmog]

I live in dichotomy - on one hand I wear my clothes until they fall apart, I look like a hobo, if you saw me on the street, you'd swear I'm living in a dumpster...

Conversely, I just ordered a limited-edition printing of Frank Herbert's Dune for $700, without even pausing to consider... I guess it's a matter of individual priorities...

Haha, just this morning I accidentally ripped my arm through my old shirt which was left inside the sweater from last night. Only noticed when I wanted to adjust the cuff and it was in a completely wrong place, not even around the wrist. Yesterday two buttons fell off too, so that will be the end of that old rag.

Oh wait, can it still do service for waxing my cars?

May have to start buying new clothes, even. Digs into investment, but winter is coming.

 

[redan]

History has certainly been unkind to TSLAQ. It’s funny to read now. I love it. @TeslaHistorian is a great follow on Twitter for some laughs at TSLAQ’s expense:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452042010760728591

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452324598859636746

 

[CorneliusXX]

You could be right but I looked at Shanghai's ramp and it really had no impact on margins.
We saw a very slight dip in Q1 2020 when Shanghai came on board (just a 0.3% dip on the Model 3 margin) but much of that had to do with reduced production in Fremont (104k in Q4 vs 86k in Q1 as Covid shutdown Fremont in mid-March).

However, in using Shanghai as a proxy, I may be overlooking the fact that Labor & Overhead costs will be higher in Berlin/Austin than we had in Shanghai and we are dealing with 2 inefficient ramping sites instead of one.

Zach did make some comments on margins as there are "unknown unknowns", but I sense they are putting pieces in place to produce increasing margins (Model X ramp and US price increases).

I don't think we have seen the full efficiency from GigaShanghai as they were still ramping the Y in the last quarter, however there could potentially be some offsetting margin compression in Q1 21 if they divert more production to domestic consumers and reduce ASP as GigaBerlin comes online.

 

[redan]

A good question to ponder. I used to think Gigas Austin and Berlin would drastically reduce the wait times in the US and Europe. But now I think the wait lists will only continue to grow as more people become aware of Tesla and how much better these cars are than anything else on the road. The S-curve is just beginning:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452071388131569669

 

[st_lopes]

Another offset for Berlin is that logistics will be much cheaper on every vehicle coming of Berlin. No ships needed to service the surrounding countries, no ports where cars have to load/offload, no duties/import taxes, etc.....

I also have a hunch Austin is going to ramp more quickly that expected. At least ramp to the point where vehicles coming out of Austin are not a net negative on margins.

If Fremont actually manages to increase capacity by 50%, we can expect to see a near 50% improvement to margins on vehicles out of that factory. Likely not perfectly linear given one would expect some incremental cost to increase that capacity, but you get the idea.

Shanghai is already showing us what’s possible, and they’re just getting started as well. Expect what… 100% capacity increase out of Shanghai?

This is just the beginning of margin expansion at Tesla.

Megapacks will be another huge “surprise”.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see 40%+ gross margins and 25%+ net margins by end of Q4 2022.

 

[AudubonB]

I live in dichotomy - on one hand I wear my clothes until they fall apart, I look like a hobo, if you saw me on the street, you'd swear I'm living in a dumpster...

Conversely, I just ordered a limited-edition printing of Frank Herbert's Dune for $700, without even pausing to consider... I guess it's a matter of individual priorities...

I'll sell you an unlimited one for $699 - an even better deal.

 

[NicoV]

I didn’t expect this at this early stage of the beta: anecdotal evidence that FSD (i.e. The current 1000 driver beta) is sometimes safer than a human: Tesla FSD Beta is starting to save lives
Although I should have known: Superhuman sensors in a system that is never distracted is bound to result in situations where it picks up things that a human would have missed.

 

[Unpilot]

If Fremont actually manages to increase capacity by 50%, we can expect to see a near 50% improvement to margins on vehicles out of that factory. Likely not perfectly linear given one would expect some incremental cost to increase that capacity, but you get the idea.

Shanghai is already showing us what’s possible, and they’re just getting started as well. Expect what… 100% capacity increase out of Shanghai?

This is just the beginning of margin expansion at Tesla.

Megapacks will be another huge “surprise”.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see 40%+ gross margins and 25%+ net margins by end of Q4 2022.

STOP.....my McScrooge vault can only hold so much Do-rae-me

 

[Snerruc]

Just switched over from the FSD thread. 10.3 is apparently a disaster and is being pulled back from the fleet. Not sure if it is a reversion or a complete pull. If there are accidents caused by this, God only knows what this does to the stock price.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just switched over from the FSD thread. 10.3 is apparently a disaster and is being pulled back from the fleet. Not sure if it is a reversion or a complete pull. If there are accidents caused by this, God only knows what this does to the stock price.

If there was an accident, you would have heard about it by now. They were likely just getting so many disengagements that it became obvious that it needs more time in the oven.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452345284483235841

Just rolled back to 10.2

Edit: Seems like some FSD beta users were rolled back to the production version, likely by accident. Man some people love to just jump to conclusions.

 

[Paul_SF]

Just switched over from the FSD thread. 10.3 is apparently a disaster and is being pulled back from the fleet. Not sure if it is a reversion or a complete pull. If there are accidents caused by this, God only knows what this does to the stock price.

If, is not like everyone had forgot how to drive overnight and now they get into accidents cause 10.3 was supposed to drive flawlessly.

 

[22522]

Am reaching out for help on math as I might be getting decimals and commas confused.

Here is the supposition:

Each Tesla vehicle sold creates strong conviction with a person who can hold 1000 shares of TSLA stock.

2,000,000 Teslas have been sold. That translates into 2,000,000,000 shares with 1,000,000,000 added in the last 2 years.


When I ask Google "what is the float on Tesla shares"

TSLA Stock Price | Tesla Inc. Stock Quote (U.S.: Nasdaq) | MarketWatch

TSLA | Complete Tesla Inc. stock news by MarketWatch. View real-time stock prices and stock quotes for a full financial overview.

www.marketwatch.com

I see 802.18 million. So in American that means 802,180,000.

Is seems like there are more people with conviction and money to buy Tesla shares than there are Tesla shares.

Please correct my math. Find the mistake. I am off by a factor of 2, with some softening on the 1000 shares.

Again, math is kind of a last resort as usually "you can observe a lot by just watching."

The goal here was to see how much stiffer the price response would be by adding 1,000,000 owners in the last 2 years. Does their participation matter in terms of the total market for TSLA stock.

My math says it matters a lot! Not a drop in the bucket, but the entire bucket!

This can't be right. Help me out.

 

[Mengy]

Just switched over from the FSD thread. 10.3 is apparently a disaster and is being pulled back from the fleet. Not sure if it is a reversion or a complete pull. If there are accidents caused by this, God only knows what this does to the stock price.

I'd wager not too much. There weren't any accidents and this doesn't affect the company fundamentals right now, so I think it's a big meh for the stock price.

Now we might pull back some tomorrow after last week's run up, that wouldn't surprise me.

 

[MP3Mike]

Each Tesla vehicle sold creates strong conviction with a person who can hold 1000 shares of TSLA stock.

2,000,000 Teslas have been sold. That translates into 2,000,000,000 shares with 1,000,000,000 added in the last 2 years.

I think your problem is that most people buying a Tesla can barely afford buying the car for ~$50k they don't have anywhere near $909k to invest in TSLA.

Most Tesla owners I know don't own any TSLA stock. In fact they don't own any stock for a single company, they only own mutual funds in their retirement accounts.

 

[MXWing]

This is me trying to achieve 100 safety score for FSD beta.

Also, TSLA SHORTS. Have fun in the game!

 

[ammulder]

Here is the supposition:

Each Tesla vehicle sold creates strong conviction with a person who can hold 1000 shares of TSLA stock.

You must be joking. Everybody who buys a $50k car must necessarily have $900k ready and waiting to invest? And that's not even the part about how many people do you know outside this forum who bought a car and then invested in the company that made it?