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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Sure, and my mother from Nanaimo handily provided me my Canadian Passport, invaluable when entering Iran following the revolution. That is another story... Vancouver Island is as close to heaven as the world affords! Anyway that is what my grandfather kept telling me as a small California-born child. He never approved of his daughter heading south. Now Nanaimo even has it's very own Supercharger that I used as I was going to our ancestral home in a Model X.
Oh it is! I just drove my Tesla out there a few weeks ago and hiked the west coast trail. One of the craziest experiences of my life. Multiple times I thought I was going to die. It should be called the west coast obstacle course.

 
New BBB Act language is up (and there seems to be an agreement on this language). (https://rules.house.gov/sites/democrats.rules.house.gov/files/BILLS-117HR5376RH-RCP117-17.pdf)

I read it very quickly, but seems pretty similar to before.

- Income limitations at $800k joint/$400k individual.
- Capped at MSRPS of: $55k (Car); $64k (Van); $69k (SUV); $74k (Truck)
- Effective in 2022
- Base Credit of $4000
- Additional $3500 for batteries >40kWh (and a tiny gas tank)
- Additional $4500 for domestic unionized assembly
- Additional $500 for domestic batteries
- Expires 2031
- Can be point-of-sale after 2022

Final result for Tesla: $7500-$8000 credit depending on how battery manufacture is determined for Models 3/Y/Cybertruck.

My take: A net positive for Tesla. No reason to get up in arms about union assembly -- it will be years before domestic unionized manufacturers can produce same quantities as Tesla and for now and a long while, Tesla's cost advantages are likely greater than $4500k. Plus, for now, Tesla treated the same as closest global competitors like VW.

There is also still a used EV credit of $2000 for middle income taxpayers (up to $150k joint) purchasing cars for less than $25k.
Does this refer to the vehicle MSRP by itself? MSRP including delivery charge? Bottom line MSRP including options and delivery?
How is SUV defined? Are we sure the Y qualifies?
 
Does that mean Ford and GM plug ins with tiny batteries get $8500 rebate? If so, then they will probably just add a plug in battery to every gas car for like $1000.

If made in the US/union plant, yeah... not if made in some of their out-of-US plants like in Mexico.

Non-union hybrid makers like Toyota or VW would only get the base $4000 credit... (or $500 more if they get their cells domestically)


The main battery-dependent item is the $3500 credit for batteries >40kwh... which it not likely to show up in a hybrid.... by the time you put that much battery in a pure EV makes vastly more sense....most hybrids are in the 10-18 kwh range for batteries.


I believe the qualifying car needs to have a gas tank no larger than 2.5 gallons

The gas tank thing is only for the extra $3500 which as I say requires at least a 40.01 kwh battery as well, so hybrids make little sense here.
 
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Is there a unit limit per manufacturer? If not Tesla will probably still end up getting the majority of the $ benefit. I suppose there's some sort of cap on the total spending for this program.
No unit limit, but since Ford and GM can just bolt a 10kWh battery and tiny motor onto any existing platform and collect more money than Tesla’s full BEVs, Tesla is not likely to collect the majority of the $$.

Within 2 years, every car, truck, van, and hamster is going to be a PHEV.

The only saving grace is they are still going to keep losing market share every year to Tesla; likely until they go out of business.
 
You said a mouthful there. I've spent 48 hours trying to figure out why a 100,000 order by Hertz matters at all when TSLA can't fill all the orders from consumer demand as it is. What about this makes people decide now to buy TSLA? Meanwhile there seems to be a complete lack of any discussion (IRL not here, I mean) about 2 enormous factories that are about to open and essentially double production capacity of one of the fastest growing companies in the world. If anything that should have been a slow-burning catalyst for sustained buying for the last 6 months at least. I don't get this game at all. It did, however, give me the opportunity to increase my holdings this year so....thanks? It just seems impossible that I'm that much smarter than all these "professionals," but whatever. Crazy times.
You need to smooth out your cerebellum. Factories, market share? Too complicated. Hertz buys? Whoooaa!
 
New BBB Act language is up (and there seems to be an agreement on this language). (https://rules.house.gov/sites/democrats.rules.house.gov/files/BILLS-117HR5376RH-RCP117-17.pdf)

I read it very quickly, but seems pretty similar to before.

- Income limitations at $800k joint/$400k individual.
- Capped at MSRPS of: $55k (Car); $64k (Van); $69k (SUV); $74k (Truck)
- Effective in 2022
- Base Credit of $4000
- Additional $3500 for batteries >40kWh (and a tiny gas tank)
- Additional $4500 for domestic unionized assembly
- Additional $500 for domestic batteries
- Expires 2031
- Can be point-of-sale after 2022

Final result for Tesla: $7500-$8000 credit depending on how battery manufacture is determined for Models 3/Y/Cybertruck.

My take: A net positive for Tesla. No reason to get up in arms about union assembly -- it will be years before domestic unionized manufacturers can produce same quantities as Tesla and for now and a long while, Tesla's cost advantages are likely greater than $4500k. Plus, for now, Tesla treated the same as closest global competitors like VW.

There is also still a used EV credit of $2000 for middle income taxpayers (up to $150k joint) purchasing cars for less than $25k.
What counts as the buy date? I ordered a car last week but, of course, won't get it until next summer.
 
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It is serendipity, gives Tesla legitimacy and it gives the wounded Hertz brand a little bit of premium shine and maybe a little more draw with the younger and wealthier renters.
I agree. It probably took a combination of Tesla ascendancy and Hertz desperation. Validation to both.

Edit: wow. What @Ogre said.
 
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Draft bill
Whoa! Am I reading it right? On the second page, 1242, says the vehicle may have a gasoline tank of no more than 2.5 gallons.

edit: Maybe that is a restriction for the $3500 over the base amount of $4000.

edit: I don’t see the "domestic assembly qualifications" spelled out. Maybe those are elsewhere or are still in play or are under discussion?
 
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Yesterday and today, after-hours trading has pushed the stock price higher than I've seen on "typical"/non-event days. Yesterday, after-hours trading pushed it up a higher percentage total than the regular trading day's percentage total. So far today, it looks like it may happen again. I'm curious who benefits from trading after-hours. Are they shorts covering and buying shares back in after-hours trading to avoid bigger run-ups in the day?
Options don’t trade after hours. Half of the total options traded in the market this week were for TSLA. Perhaps, “they” figured out a way to keep those options trades from overwhelming the “system.”
 
When making investment decisions on Tesla I'm not including Robotaxis potential. Appears to be several years out IMO with too much uncertainty. Lets see where FSD is at the end of 2022.

IMO, at the current rate of progress, FSD Beta should be close to robotaxi-ready even before Dojo is completed sometime next year. When Dojo fires up, progress will be very fast. Supercomputers are fast. By the end of 2022, I expect Tesla Network to be rolling out in some form somewhere.

This would make Elon's estimate from earlier this year late by one year, which is what ARK predicted.
 
Mostly OT: I highly doubt Elon is the richest person in the world.

Unlike the self-made upstarts listed in Forbes magazine, the richest people in the world got their money the old-fashioned way: inheritance and crime. They use their very large resources to stay out of the public eye, and control their wealth anonymously through shell corporations in tax havens around the globe. They probably pay Forbes researchers to keep them out of the magazine.

My evidence for this? Paranoia, logic, some reading about the Panama Papers and Pandora Papers, and observation of the amount of lying in media like Forbes magazine. If the financial media report something, odds are good that it is false.