Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

No kidding. I gave a ride to a 30-something guy over the summer. He had a nearly brand new Toyota adventure vehicle that he seemed quite proud of (probably a trust funder) and liked to hike and ski. He seemed to be above average in intelligence and life skills. After he had ridden about 5 miles and complemented me on the car he added that he had no idea Tesla's were such nice cars. At some point I mentioned how nice it was to not have to go to gas stations. This confused him and he wanted to know how much gas the tank held. I told him it didn't use any gas. His jaw dropped but obviously he didn't fully believe me because I still had to confirm twice more that it was 100% electric. He kept saying "No gas?" in disbelief. This was after I had driven him 5 miles and he heard how quiet it was. His mind was blown! I could see the wheels spinning in his head as he tried to come to terms with a car that didn't have a gas tank. How he had not heard of this, I'll never know because he seemed like a normal person of above average curiosity and intelligence.

I think I was blown away that he didn't know about BEV's almost as much as he was blown away that BEV's were possible and actually existed. He thought all electrified cars were hybrids. This was only three or four months ago! The speed of this transition to BEV's is going to blow away even Tesla bulls.

YOU ARE SO RIGHT. Even now most people in the USA are clueless about EV's. They do not see a reason to understand the whole thing. I bet most are stimulated to learn by commercials such as those done by OEM's and now Hertz.
Until 2 years ago I knew Teslas made expensive electric cars that ran on computer batteries. And I AM smart compared to most Americans. I didn't give a crap about climate change. I still don't because I lived through the absolutely most terrible catastrophic global unstoppable environmental disaster EVER! No one can argue that it had an even better PR department than "Global Warming." Global Warming sounds good.
Now ACID RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ACID RAIN! It is raining ACID. It was going to kill the forests. It was already sterilizing trout streams. Paint was dissolving off of cars. The World was ending. And then all they had to do was force Ohio Coal plants to put some scrubbers on their coal plants. And Acid rain was gone. POOF. Gone.
So really "Global Warming" Less harsh Winters, Longer Summers! Yippee.
My point is most don't care about Global Warming. We will have to do is something eventually. no big deal. So no, EV's aren't really the solution to "us." We want to have a better ride. Period.
But the Cyber(nota)truck hooked such a large percentage of the "real" people. So "we" learned things because we liked the cyber(nota)truck, not to save the world.
I'll let you in on something, I still don't care about the future of the Planet. I live my life so not to do any more harm to it, but after I am gone I don't care. I got a shitty planet to live in when I was born, and I expect the next generation will do what they want.
But the truth is EV's are better cars. And that is all that is needed to get us to want and buy them. Unfortunately the truth is not of any value. It is the perception. Somehow the perception of EV's is changing...not to save the world.
And regular people are easily deceived by the business entities of the world. The truth won't sell vehicles when more powerful lies are given center stage.
Almost all the people that have learned to drive a gas car are hardwired to accepting that a car is a petrol-driven necessity. We have closed off trying to add anything to that understanding. "We" have accepted that.
I consider that "youngsters" love Teslas because they have not been indoctrinated to the Petrol Culture. "Us"? Not you, but the common man and me, we quit accepting any other data. And the OEM's and Oil saw the EV Threat and they started lies and FUD. And have been very effective. But now the truth is here. The game has changed. We did not change the game. The OEM's and Oil have decided it is time to tactically withdraw. They have an exit strategy working now.
BTW the eyeball maxpain this morning was $1070 to the lowside and $1090 to the highside, And $1100 being almost impossible. Then again that was before opening.

 

[StealthP3D]

I expect when the EV plan passes there will be a whole new round of PT's from analysts. Might even see 1,250 with a blow off top and then drop back to 1,100 area by Dec.

As a long-term investor I'm pretty much ignoring the EV plan and while I think it will probably cause the stock to run up in the short-term, probably more than once, I don't think the overall effect on TSLA or the EV adoption rate will be very significant or even beneficial to the mission. That may sound like a controversial statement but I haven't come to this conclusion without thinking about it carefully. In many ways it will harm the transition to EV's. What it will do is put a bunch more cars on the road. I've never been a conservative and recognize the many good things government can do to stimulate innovation and encourage beneficial behavior, but this is not one of them (any longer). Governments can and do distort markets but it has to be done very carefully for the overall effect to be a net benefit. Government interference in the marketplace often has severe negative consequences when not executed with careful consideration (and obviously this bill has not been). I think it's time to end EV subsidies by letting the current ones play out (only in the name of consistency). Tesla will be more than fine without them and it does society no favors to prop up the ones that will probably fail with or without them.

 

[mltv]

Tesla is recalling nearly 2,800 Model Y and Model 3 vehicles in the US over a potential suspension problem that could make the cars more likely to crash

The NHTSA safety recall report said Tesla drivers of the affected cars may hear an "abnormal noise" from the front suspension.

www.yahoo.com

Make sure your Teslas are in top shape if you are affected by the recall.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Someone here needs to Tweet Elon and ask him about the fuel-fired heater language in a recent EPA filing regarding the new Model X.

I learned about the filing from this Teslarati article: The new Tesla Model X is hiding an understated but incredible secret

You can read the filing embedded in the Teslarati article. There is also language that says "Description of fuel-fired heater / fuel tank evaporative system"

I could see an Espar heater like what one can install on a Sprinter van be a cool feature for a Tesla Camp Mode, but also as a way to get the additional PHEV tax credit in the new bill going through Congress. That would be hilarious if Tesla began installing fuel-fired heaters to make Teslas hybrids for tax credit reasons just to mess with government regulators and the OEMs. Yeah, Tesla can play these silly games, too.

Sorry if this is a bit OT, but the sentiment is the root of why I knew Tesla(Elon) would succeed.

The Build Back Better legislation, which I support, is inherently backward. They're not fundamentally addressing the thing they supposedly want to encourage. We're talking about unions, and income limits, and millions of other little tweaks to fit everyone's agenda, but there are a million cheaper, simpler, and more effective ways if you take a first principles approach.

I like to remind everyone this last ten years of renewables/EV renaissance was started by simple German legislation back in 1999/2000. They decided they wanted to speed the transition to renewable energy, so they did it with a very rational plan....The Energiewende. The legislative tool they used to push wind and solar adoption was a simple two pronged strategy that required no real management or oversight.

1) Renewables were given absolute grid priority on the wholesale side. If you had wind or solar supply to sell, it had to be bought and everyone else moved to the back of the line.

2) They established a pricing scheme incentivizing the market to do all the work. Germans were paying $.24/kWh for electricity and wholesalers probably got on average(total guess) $.13/kWh for production. The Energiewende started off by saying, any solar production will be compensated at(again slight guess) $.67/$.59/$.54 per kWh under a 20 year contract depending on size of the array. Homeowners getting the highest rate of course. Then as tons and tons of solar were added to the grid, new contracts were awarded at lower and lower rates. Today's contract rate is something like $.10/kWh and they've moved on to an auction format for new supply.

That's it. That's all it took for cloudy ass Germany to go from 0% solar in 2009 to 9% today. Incentive. And what did it cost their government? Nothing. All the costs filter into retail electricity costs, which are now marginally higher. They scaled the ENTIRE global market for solar and wind nearly single-handedly, and it cost them hardly anything because at it's foundation renewable energy is cheaper.

Meanwhile, we're screwing around seeing which special interest gets the most. I support this BBB plan because it's all we're capable of at the moment, but it's like 96% waste. We're painting my toenails by dumping a 5 gallon bucket of paint on them.

 

[kbeckley]

LOL doug made my 2012 date seems like a noob.
I did start reading this forum since 2011 though. But I was busy working on my very first startup that I didn't have time to sign up.

BTW any canuk earlier than me?

Perhaps me?

But to be more slightly on topic. Question for the collected wisdom:
One of the rare areas that Tesla has disappointed is not allowing my Model S to be a backup to my home. I have long wondered why they have not done this. It looks like the F150 lightening (with the added package) will beat Tesla to it. I see this feature as inevitable, so rare for Tesla to be a follower. To me this is a killer application for that massive battery. Reasons I can think of:
1. Want to sell Powerwalls instead (maybe but seems anti-mission).
2. Messy to get into home electrical panels (which they do with Powerwalls and solar panels).
3. Car is not always home or charged so Powerwall superior. (I want both).
4. Somehow does not want added stress on the battery? (but a rare event unless used for demand response/ autobidder)
5. Low margin business? (but doesn't have to be).
6. Got enough on their plate.
7.?

Thoughts?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am so unhappy about the calls I sold this week.

"Tiger! Fricken Tiger in the jungle! Never get out of the boat man. Never get out of the boat"

Chef was wrapped too tight for Wall St. Probably wrapped too tight for New Orleans...

 

[ninpb]

Serious question. How are the folks over in the "other thread" doing? Seems its a rough week to be selling calls

Learning a lot.

 

[Nocturnal]

The tight range today is surprising. I guess someone is working to keep it here.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This should be worth anudder 20 bux on the SP, amirite?

Hertz Tesla rentals in Canada to launch in select markets in Q1 2022 [Update]

Travelers to and within Canada will soon have access to a fleet of Tesla Model 3 rentals as Hertz plans to bring the electric sedan to select Canadian markets early next year. In a statement […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

Perhaps me?

But to be more slightly on topic. Question for the collected wisdom:
One of the rare areas that Tesla has disappointed is not allowing my Model S to be a backup to my home. I have long wondered why they have not done this. It looks like the F150 lightening (with the added package) will beat Tesla to it. I see this feature as inevitable, so rare for Tesla to be a follower. To me this is a killer application for that massive battery. Reasons I can think of:
1. Want to sell Powerwalls instead (maybe but seems anti-mission).
2. Messy to get into home electrical panels (which they do with Powerwalls and solar panels).
3. Car is not always home or charged so Powerwall superior. (I want both).
4. Somehow does not want added stress on the battery? (but a rare event unless used for demand response/ autobidder)
5. Low margin business? (but doesn't have to be).
6. Got enough on their plate.
7.?

Thoughts?

How about: In the event of a power outage, any home electricity must be isolated from the grid to protect the workers while they are performing the repairs. If Tesla allowed vehicle to home, VTH, they would have to have a foolproof way of ensuring this. The only way I can think of is to have a smart system that would sense the power outage and disconnect the home. It would also have to talk to the car any only allow VTH if it could talk to the Tesla home to grid connection. For a few dollars more you could have a real Powerwall. If it was allowed without this kind of safety system, then the utility workers would be at risk every time there was an outage.

 

[lafrisbee]

More on topic:
I find it very difficult to not consider selling. I could talk about being in this situation in theory but not from a personal perspective.
Thinking about it, it feels as if I am in a very slowed-down hand of poker. Where my cards slowly change, and the size of the pot can go up or down...
You guys must be a very diverse group. And here we sit... "All-in" just deciding when we turn our cars over..or "IF" we ever decide... There have to be so many different and entertaining stories surrounding each of you.
How odd is this experience? To sit here watching, reading, typing...with all of you. All while playing poker.....

 

[Nocturnal]

Another PT upgrade.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454148526523387906

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As a long-term investor I'm pretty much ignoring the EV plan and while I think it will probably cause the stock to run up in the short-term, probably more than once, I don't think the overall effect on TSLA or the EV adoption rate will be very significant or even beneficial to the mission. That may sound like a controversial statement but I haven't come to this conclusion without thinking about it carefully. In many ways it will harm the transition to EV's. What it will do is put a bunch more cars on the road. I've never been a conservative and recognize the many good things government can do to stimulate innovation and encourage beneficial behavior, but this is not one of them (any longer). Governments can and do distort markets but it has to be done very carefully for the overall effect to be a net benefit. Government interference in the marketplace often has severe negative consequences when not executed with careful consideration (and obviously this bill has not been. I think it's time to end EV subsidies by letting the current ones play out (only in the name of consistency). Tesla will be more than fine without them and it does society no favors to prop up the ones that will probably fail with or without them.

I'd have to say I actually very much disagree with you here. Government intervention isn't needed when the playing field is fair. But the fossil fuel industry would have continued to slow the transition to a crawl (outside of Tesla of course). There's no doubt in my mind that they would find a way to give kick backs to legacy auto to continue to just make ICE vehicles. Traditional auto would have likely ran ICE into the ground until they're bankrupt, then ask the government to bail them out in 10 years as then just then make the transition to EV's. But that's my view, we're on different spectrums here which is fine.

But as an investor in Tesla, while the EV credit does nothing for Tesla's ability to produce more vehicles, it will have profound impacts on Tesla's earnings starting in mid-late 2022 and for the next 5+ years on.

 

[elasalle]

seeing this in feed ...

 

[Krugerrand]

Interest payment #2 completed.

 

[JRP3]

So do we think Tesla is making any contingent plans with the new Tax Credit likely going to have people wanting to push out deliveries to January?

Hertz

 

[ninpb]

More on topic:
I find it very difficult to not consider selling. I could talk about being in this situation in theory but not from a personal perspective.
Thinking about it, it feels as if I am in a very slowed-down hand of poker. Where my cards slowly change, and the size of the pot can go up or down...
You guys must be a very diverse group. And here we sit... "All-in" just deciding when we turn our cars over..or "IF" we ever decide... There have to be so many different and entertaining stories surrounding each of you.
How odd is this experience? To sit here watching, reading, typing...with all of you. All while playing poker.....

 

[WattsHappening]

How about: In the event of a power outage, any home electricity must be isolated from the grid to protect the workers while they are performing the repairs. If Tesla allowed vehicle to home, VTH, they would have to have a foolproof way of ensuring this. The only way I can think of is to have a smart system that would sense the power outage and disconnect the home. It would also have to talk to the car any only allow VTH if it could talk to the Tesla home to grid connection. For a few dollars more you could have a real Powerwall. If it was allowed without this kind of safety system, then the utility workers would be at risk every time there was an outage.

Good point. However, Tesla won't sell us Powerwalls if we don't also combine it with solar panels or solar roof. For those of us who already have solar panels, we're SOL. I expect this to change when batteries are more plentiful.

We were without power for 29 hours over the weekend. I would LOVE to be able to use our Teslas as temporary power sources for the home.

 

[Nocturnal]

Hertz

I have to imagine that they could even offload other models besides the model 3 if they really had extras laying around. (which I doubt)

 

[2daMoon]

Knocking on 1100's door, again.

Will somebody open the friggin' door already? Or, at least take the security chain off so it opens wide.