Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paul_SF]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454159305465270284

 

[navguy12]

I don't get to deduct any interest on my taxes (I have no mortgage). Why do they?

And as anyone in Canada will tell you, we cannot/don’t deduct interest on mortgages here…of course, when we sell our home, the capital gain is not taxed.

If the concept of a tax on unrealized capital gains were ever promulgated into law, would the money used to buy the stock in the first place be “tax deductible“?

 

[UncaNed]

That doesn't make any sense unless you actually think Hybrids will eat away at Tesla's demand, which I kinda think is funny. The amount of batteries going into a hybrid is non-material and Tesla has their battery supply already locked up. There is no cap on # of sales per manufacturer, no overall dollar amount cap for the EV credit/rebate program, and it doesn't phase out until 2030. There's zero way it limits the number of Tesla's on the road.

The bill absolutely subsidizes/rewards mediocrity. That sucks, we all know it sucks. But it doesn't change my opinion that if the EV credit bill fails, in about 6 months, you would see many legacy auto makers announce delays in their EV plans......and they'll keep delaying them. The fact is that for them to be viable with EV's, they HAVE to have this EV credit. They can't even remotely compete with Tesla on pricing, it would bankrupt them much faster than them just taking the approach of "We think EV's are just a fad" and running ICE into the ground.

Does anyone here think they'll really be "viable with EV's" either way? Letting them put themselves out of their misery, sans EV credits, sooner than later would be better IMHO.

 

[NicoV]

There is no cap on # of sales per manufacturer, no overall dollar amount cap for the EV credit/rebate program, and it doesn't phase out until 2030.

So how long before it gets revoked or watered down because it costs too much?
If Tesla sells 20 million cars in 2030, let’s say that is 5 million in the US. At 9K subsidy, that’s 45 billion in US yearly subsidy for Tesla cars.

 

[LYTRIDR]

I'll let you in on something, I still don't care about the future of the Planet. I live my life so not to do any more harm to it, but after I am gone I don't care. I got a shitty planet to live in when I was born, and I expect the next generation will do what they want.
But the truth is EV's are better cars. And that is all that is needed to get us to want and buy them. Unfortunately the truth is not of any value. It is the perception. Somehow the perception of EV's is changing...not to save the world.
And regular people are easily deceived by the business entities of the world. The truth won't sell vehicles when more powerful lies are given center stage.

IMHO, this encapsulates the level of brilliance of Elon Musk. He is figuring out how to solve the most difficult and intractable problems humanity faces in a way that works within the framework of the existing power structures. He has worked relentlessly to solve climate change the only way it could be solved: For profit.

Only so many hippies will stop eating meat and bicycle to the local coop for veggies. Those people who focus on reducing consumption have a problem They can only reduce that consumption to 0(and that is by dying so is suboptimal.) There is no limit to how much a single person can consume and therefore those consuming 0 will have no net effect on total carbon output.

If however, someone can control the production in such a way as to reduce carbon output, @lafrisbee and @LYTRIDR are still happy to consume, maybe even ecstatic to consume a better, more valuable product. This is regardless of political or economic affiliation. It is a better product. Sold at a cheaper price. Even Republicans and Democrats can agree that they want one because it is better in every way.

This can only happen if there is profit to be made. Elon knows this.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So how long before it gets revoked or watered down because it costs too much?
If Tesla sells 20 million cars in 2030, let’s say that is 5 million in the US. At 9K subsidy, that’s 45 billion in US yearly subsidy for Tesla cars.

That's an extreme way of putting it since Tesla won't hit that number until 2030 and the yearly subsidy for the next 5 years that goes toward Tesla cars would be less than half of that. Even then, I'm kinda of the opinion Tesla might not even hit that 20 million annual number because I think Robotaxi's will take over when they're viable

You're talking to someone that would love nothing more to see legacy auto fail in a spectacular way, which is going to happen anyways because even with the EV credit, the auto industry ins going to have to consolidate in a massive way to compete with Tesla. But if you're advocating for EV adoption as quickly as possible, then the EV bill is what we got. It's not a good bill, it's terrible actually. But it's what we got.

 

[Ohmster]

Good point. However, Tesla won't sell us Powerwalls if we don't also combine it with solar panels or solar roof. For those of us who already have solar panels, we're SOL. I expect this to change when batteries are more plentiful.

We were without power for 29 hours over the weekend. I would LOVE to be able to use our Teslas as temporary power sources for the home.

Got 3 PWs added to our system in May. Ordered a year prior so well before the cut off the ‘not to be sold separately’ aspect. These things are frigin incredible.

 

[thx1139]

Isn't Y sold out until next summer?

Talking about people in November and December pushing delivery of vehicles ready for delivery until January. These are produced cars. Now I think Tesla can tell people that if they push out delivery they risk being put at the back of the line. In reality that is damn risky. Telling people they cant wait a couple of weeks so they can save $8000 can create a backlash. Media will love it. Of course if Tesla simply holds cars in lots financial media will ignore when Q4 delivery and production numbers come out and then later on when financials come out. Even if Tesla puts in a note that deliveries were delayed so people could take advantage of tax credit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

♬ Knock, knock, knockin' on Eleven's Door... ♬

Cheers!

 

[bkp_duke]

I wasn't aware Elon said that... Wouldn't "Vehicle to Powerwall" potentially be a lifesaver in situations like @sroh 's though?

...vastly extending the useable stored power in an extended emergency, if not vastly increasing the utility of the Powerwall..

Musk downplays vehicle-to-grid technology: "It has lower utility than you think"

Musk says V2G could be delivered with software update, but downplays its utility because Powerwalls are more dependable storage option than battery on wheels.

thedriven.io

Was in the Battery Day presentation. He didn't outright say "not happening", but you can see from the above he was not keen on the idea.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Talking about people in November and December pushing delivery of vehicles ready for delivery until January. These are produced cars. Now I think Tesla can tell people that if they push out delivery they risk being put at the back of the line. In reality that is damn risky. Telling people they cant wait a couple of weeks so they can save $8000 can create a backlash. Media will love it. Of course if Tesla simply holds cars in lots financial media will ignore when Q4 delivery and production numbers come out and then later on when financials come out. Even if Tesla puts in a note that deliveries were delayed so people could take advantage of tax credit.

People taking delivery in Nov and Dec are actually getting their Tesla's at 4-5k discount compared to what new customers are paying.....so I see absolutely nothing wrong with Tesla telling those that want to delay delivery till Jan to go to the back of the line.

Tesla will also likely announce that anyone willing to take delivery in Nov/Dec will get pre-July price hike prices. That would save customers that placed orders over the past couple of months $2-3k and those that are placing orders now about $4-5k.

The worries about this quarter deliveries is a nothing-burger. A ton of options for Tesla.

 

[LYTRIDR]

But as an investor in Tesla, while the EV credit does nothing for Tesla's ability to produce more vehicles, it will have profound impacts on Tesla's earnings starting in mid-late 2022 and for the next 5+ years on.

I have to disagree because the bill does a few things, some primary and others are knock on effects. There is money in the framework for establishing domestic supply chains of critical materials. Details are scarce, but I look to companies like Novonix (disclosure: I own it) to get grant money, loans, or other favorable treatment due to this bill. They are building a factory in TN at the moment and my guess is that once this passes there will be a great de-risking of investment due to both their capital requirements being met with government support and guaranteed demand increases in the market due to the consumer subsidy on BEV and PHEVs. Novonix makes synthetic graphite anodes and cathode products including single-crystal cathodes, sells battery testing equipment and electrolytes (eventually.)

NVX won't be the only company to dramatically change their scaling plans with this new demand tailwind. There will be many players that jump headfirst into the marketplace and hopefully this drives costs down along the Wright's law curve. That could help Tesla's margin if the supply of inputs scales quickly enough.

Also, think about the Tesla model Q. ($25k Tesla) If I am Elon and my mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, I want to kill ICE as fast as possible. A $17k car does this. Legacy is DEAD when the Model Q hits the market with an $8k refundable credit. Tesla has the cash or ability to raise capex to both start building the next Giga or expand Berlin for the Model Q while also investing upstream in the cathode/anode suppliers in a joint venture/buyout/long-term agreement.

This all happens due to the huge demand unlocked by the very low pricepoint enabled by the tax credit. Not only will this tax credit accelerate the mission, but it will hasten the demise of legacy auto if they try to milk the credits for PHEV because no one will want those cars anyway AND they won't have taken the opportunity to learn to make a proper EV. They'll be screwed.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

♬ Knock, knock, knockin' on Eleven's Door... ♬

View attachment 727205

Cheers!

Those accumulating really want to see MM's pay out those 1100 Calls lol. This is quite amusing to watch.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I guess we're gonna need to see quite a "volume" spike at the end here if MM's are gonna keep it under $1100. Gotta print those fake shares and sell em nude!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I have to disagree because the bill does a few things, some primary and others are knock on effects. There is money in the framework for establishing domestic supply chains of critical materials. Details are scarce, but I look to companies like Novonix (disclosure: I own it) to get grant money, loans, or other favorable treatment due to this bill. They are building a factory in TN at the moment and my guess is that once this passes there will be a great de-risking of investment due to both their capital requirements being met with government support and guaranteed demand increases in the market due to the consumer subsidy on BEV and PHEVs. Novonix makes synthetic graphite anodes and cathode products including single-crystal cathodes, sells battery testing equipment and electrolytes (eventually.)

NVX won't be the only company to dramatically change their scaling plans with this new demand tailwind. There will be many players that jump headfirst into the marketplace and hopefully this drives costs down along the Wright's law curve. That could help Tesla's margin if the supply of inputs scales quickly enough.

Also, think about the Tesla model Q. ($25k Tesla) If I am Elon and my mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, I want to kill ICE as fast as possible. A $17k car does this. Legacy is DEAD when the Model Q hits the market with an $8k refundable credit. Tesla has the cash or ability to raise capex to both start building the next Giga or expand Berlin for the Model Q while also investing upstream in the cathode/anode suppliers in a joint venture/buyout/long-term agreement.

This all happens due to the huge demand unlocked by the very low pricepoint enabled by the tax credit. Not only will this tax credit accelerate the mission, but it will hasten the demise of legacy auto if they try to milk the credits for PHEV because no one will want those cars anyway AND they won't have taken the opportunity to learn to make a proper EV. They'll be screwed.

I think you're actually agreeing with me? I meant that comment as the EV bill does nothing to LIMIT Tesla's production going forward. Tesla will expands as quickly as they can and if the bill helps suppliers, that's a positive.

Edit: Though I guess I didn't make that totally clear in that comment.

 

[Sancho]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454159305465270284

Anyone else here feel a tad uneasy having a considerable portion of their net worth tied up in a company controlled by a 50 year old adolescent?

 

[LYTRIDR]

I think you're actually agreeing with me? I meant that comment as the EV bill does nothing to LIMIT Tesla's production going forward. Tesla will expands as quickly as they can and if the bill helps suppliers, that's a positive.

Edit: Though I guess I didn't make that totally clear in that comment.

Oh, well I guess I agree with you then

 

[Discoducky]

Anyone else here feel a tad uneasy having a considerable portion of their net worth tied up in a company controlled by a 50 year old adolescent?

Nope! I had to listen to him tell jokes in some meetings that involved monkeys and a punch bowl. That was uncomfortable...

 

[JoRoMo]

Anyone else here feel a tad uneasy having a considerable portion of their net worth tied up in a company controlled by a 50 year old adolescent?

No. Love it… Given how we know him…

 

[Gigapress]

IMHO, this encapsulates the level of brilliance of Elon Musk. He is figuring out how to solve the most difficult and intractable problems humanity faces in a way that works within the framework of the existing power structures. He has worked relentlessly to solve climate change the only way it could be solved: For profit.

Only so many hippies will stop eating meat and bicycle to the local coop for veggies. Those people who focus on reducing consumption have a problem They can only reduce that consumption to 0(and that is by dying so is suboptimal.) There is no limit to how much a single person can consume and therefore those consuming 0 will have no net effect on total carbon output.

If however, someone can control the production in such a way as to reduce carbon output, @lafrisbee and @LYTRIDR are still happy to consume, maybe even ecstatic to consume a better, more valuable product. This is regardless of political or economic affiliation. It is a better product. Sold at a cheaper price. Even Republicans and Democrats can agree that they want one because it is better in every way.

This can only happen if there is profit to be made. Elon knows this.

This philosophy at Tesla predates Elon's direct involvement. Tarpenning and Eberhard wrote the original business plan based on observing rich liberals in Silicon Valley driving expensive Priuses, combined with seeing in the AC Propulsion t-zero that using laptop batteries had a serious chance of working in a marketable commercial EV business. Eberhard had reported wanting a sports car after his and Tarpenning's initial entrepreneurial success, but feeling bad about the fuel efficiency.

I read the full business plan once, but right now I could only find the first slide.

Note: The part about outsourcing design and manufacturing (to Lotus) was a total failure that almost made Tesla go bankrupt.