Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aronth5]

I've tried to model Level 5 FSD's impact on Tesla financials but I gave up because every time I try the numbers come out stupid large, even when I try to tune them conservatively.

Now I just ignore robotaxis in my model, when (if?) it happens it will just be a TON of icing on the cake of my Tesla investments.

Completely agree which has been my approach. If robotaxis works out great but as a FSD beta tester I'm less optimistic now at least in the short term (1-2 years). Much will depend on the types of roads you drive and if you live in a snowy climate. Hoping Dojo makes a significant difference in the rate of improvement.

 

[mejojo]

Hmm, I’ve been planning on cleaning out my mess of prices and dates to Jan 23 leaps. Looks like I’ve got some homework before December.

There is no reason to fear wash sales so long as they are not mixed across taxable and non-taxable accounts. All that it means is that the disallowed wash sale loss is rolled into the cost basis of whatever securities you bought that triggered the wash. So the only thing that can do is delay the realization of the loss. It does not take it away from you. That can only happen if the loss is in a taxable account but the bought position triggering the loss wash was in a non-taxable account. If you do that, then you will never be able to realize the loss. So just be careful to never do that.

The big fear is the counting. It seems very complicated when a mix of a large variety of options and underlying stock is involved. Do you know of a program/spreadsheet that would correctly calculate the new basis across trades of varying size? All the examples I have found involve very basic stock transactions.

 

[2daMoon]

T-minus 5 minutes and counting to another market launch.

Buckle up

 

[Stretch2727]

Officially Official

Notice the filter for non Tesla Superchargers.

From Tesla.com/Findus

Cool.

I still wonder how they will handle the short cable on the Tesla superchargers. The cable is intentionally short to avoid it ever touching the ground. This is no issue with the standard charge port location on a Tesla car and backing in most stalls. I am pretty sure the cable will not reach most cars backing in or front in.

So either we are going to have people parking at odd angles or they will need cable extenders.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Officially Official

Notice the filter for non Tesla Superchargers.

From Tesla.com/Findus

View attachment 728025

Given this, has anyone kept track of the "charging network" portion of the infrastructure bill? Is it even there anymore? Does it have some non-Tesla fine print?

Edit: since it appears Tesla is ready to "go live" with this, it would be particularly humorous if this strategy met some criteria in the infrastructure bill. Tesla could wait until bill is passed, then WHAM, a thousand chargers light up for non-Tesla use, Tesla sells adapters and rakes in the credits. Given Elon's feeling about Biden, I think this has >0% chance of happening.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Cool.

I still wonder how they will handle the short cable on the Tesla superchargers. The cable is intentionally short to avoid it ever touching the ground. This is no issue with the standard charge port location on a Tesla car and backing in most stalls. I am pretty sure the cable will not reach most cars backing in or front in.

So either we are going to have people parking at odd angles or they will need cable extenders.

A leaf charges from the front. I would think it would reach. Probably the second most common EV here is still a leaf. Then again, will they even offer a ChAdemo adapter???

 

[Krugerrand]

That won’t be a deterrent from buying a non Tesla unless you plan on doing a lot of long distance traveling. I have a Y on order and the biggest selling point to me was the supercharging network. If that is opened to all I will reconsider and look into my other options in more detail as I kind of ruled them all out because of this.

For me, most charging will be done at home. Its no big deal If I have to pay a bit more to supercharge a few times a year.

As a TSLA investor, I am looking at it from a long term investment perspective. There is so much going for tesla that I am not selling anytime soon but I do believe this will divert a good amount of sales away from tesla if open to all. Maybe the increased supercharging revenue will offset the sales loss?

At the end of the day this would help advance the mission at least.

Let me consider your thoughts for a moment.

*considering*

Nope. You’re wrong.

 

[UncaNed]

My TSLA SP chart shows a phantom $1,117 price at 8:03 this morning; could that be some sort of test by someone planning to try to manipulate the SP down in advance of whatever they might have done to cause the drop over the following 30 minutes?

I know everybody says these are either glitches or preplanned trades or something, but just wondering...

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, got my 3% for the day.

Is it nap time already?

Edit: Oops, spoke too soon...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Officially Official

Notice the filter for non Tesla Superchargers.

From Tesla.com/Findus

View attachment 728025

The Tesla Tease. Preferential charging for owners... Ha! Tesla is generating a new demand for it's vehicles.
Save money on charging, and have better access. Ya better get your own Tesla then!

 

[Maarten]

Statement from Tesla about allowing other brands to use 10 Superchargers in The Netherlands (translated from Duch language):

Today we are starting our pilot at 10 locations in the Netherlands to open up Superchargers for electric cars from brands other than Tesla.

Access to an extensive, easily accessible and reliable network of fast chargers is essential for accelerating the transition to electric driving on a large scale. That is why, since 2012, after the commissioning of our first Superchargers, we have focused on a rapid expansion of the network. There are currently more than 25,000 Superchargers worldwide.

With this pilot we offer Dutch drivers of Non-Tesla's the possibility to use our Superchargers at 10 locations via the Tesla app (version 4.2.3 or higher). Tesla owners can continue to use these charging stations in the same way they are used to. We will closely monitor the flow at the locations and listen to the experiences of our customers.

Our ambition has always been to open the Supercharger network to Non-Tesla electric cars in order to encourage more drivers to make the switch to electric driving. This fits in seamlessly with our mission to accelerate the global transition to sustainable energy.

The more customers use the Supercharger network, the faster we can expand the network. Our goal is to quickly gain experience and make any necessary adjustments. In addition, we will continue to rapidly expand our network so that hopefully in the future we can welcome both Tesla owners and Non-Tesla drivers to our Superchargers around the world.

Edit: extra info about the pricing:

Price
Will the price of charging at a Supercharger change for Tesla owners?
Tesla owners continue to pay the same price for charging.

How much does it cost to charge Non-Teslas?
The charging price charged to Non-Tesla owners includes the additional costs associated with charging a large number of different cars and made to make the locations suitable for cars from other brands. The costs vary by location. You can view the charging prices in the Tesla app. The price per kWh for charging can be reduced by taking out a charging subscription.

Are idle fees also charged at Non-Tesla's?
Yes. The same rules and fee structure apply to both Tesla owners and Non-Teslas to ensure that charging stations become available again as soon as possible. Learn more about how the idle fee works.

Owners of other brands will have to download the Tesla-app (version 4.2.3 or higher) for IOS or Android and have to make a Tesla-account.

 

[ggies07]

T-minus 5 minutes and counting to another market launch.

Buckle up

and....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Demand was at 1157 premarket, are there folks out there buying here to sell at 1150? Seems like a fairly obvious push down.

 

[cusetownusa]

Let me consider your thoughts for a moment.

*considering*

Nope. You’re wrong.

wrong about what? are you saying the Supercharging network isn't the main selling point for a lot of Tesla buyers? Or that Tesla charging non-teslas more to charge will result in people not buying a Non-Tesla just to save a few dollars a year in charging?

As another poster mentioned, maybe it doesn't matter because there would be more than enough demand for Tesla's, even after ramping up to millions of vehicles per year, for reasons other than having the Supercharging network exclusivity. plus manufacturing advantage could allow them to lower prices if needed once they finally catch up to demand.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hmmm. EMD?

Edit: $1150 sell orders, I suppose.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Just sipping coffee and following the bouncing green ball...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

7 million shares traded in first 15 mins, some serious volume.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Every supercharger in Europe has CCS!

CCS - Code Composer Studio?

 

[jbcarioca]

Lol. Thanks for the thoughtful response.

Just kidding…was just a thought considering that when I was researching to buy a Y most video reviews and comments here in the model y forum, would name the supercharging network as the number one selling point. Remove that selling point and it completely changes the discussion. I didn’t even bother looking at other options because of this.

Glad the consensus here is that this would have no impact on Tesla.

Sorry for the cryptic response. Actually this is a serious issue, particularly in congested areas, which may tend to be also areas with high non-Tesla BEV sales. Depending on pricing and terms vehicles such as Porsche, larger Audi, Mercedes, Rivian, Lucid, Hummer, Mustang Mach E, Lightning and others emerging will take longer charging times and probably have higher utilization, hence lead to more congestion. That is North America only. Although non-Teal fast charging exists much of it is undependable, located poorly and has serious interoperability constraints.

In both Europe, UK (not in Europe or EU for some, so I list it distinctly), and Greater China (any definition one chooses for that one), the non-Tesla growth is rising rapidly, but the non-Tesla fast charging is lagging and has serious inter-operability disadvantages now. Throughout the EU, where non-Tesla fast changing exists several countries only accept payment mechanisms within the country and/or only operate in one language. (e.g. How many non-Slovenes can read Slovenian?).

By contrast Tesla charging works without modification for anybody who has a Tesla account, albeit with an adapter in some countries. The Tesla UI now supports many languages, including Slovenian, Greek and, in mine anyway, Portuguese. Obviously the Tesla mobile app will support every language the Tesla UI supports,.
That means something arcane perhaps, but profound. Many frequent long distance travelers in Europe, especially, are fluent in their native language, less so in others. Those often have fairly high-end vehicles. As BEV's gain utility and towing capability they will begin to adopt them. That is just the tip of the iceberg...

Tesla , by tripling the network capacity in the next two years (IIRC) will enable many new users who then will be more exposed to and aware fo the total Tesla package. How can that not help increase adoption.

As Shanghai and Grünheide grow all of this exposure is sure to enable more sales.

I hope that gives context to my "NO"

 

[cusetownusa]

"Dent in Tesla sales" = "demand problem".

I don't see Tesla having a demand problem in the foreseeable future. However, if economic conditions change, Tesla has something special up their sleeve. Specifically, they are constantly striving to increase efficiency of manufacture. Compared to Tesla, other automakers only give lip service to this concept and fail to implement the big manufacturing changes required to reduce the cost of manufacture drastically. Big auto see big changes, meaning changes much beyond a cheaper handle or cheaper connector, as too risky. Tesla sees the failure to make big changes as too risky because they know, in the end, it all comes down to how much value they can offer the consumer.

This is what is bringing us the 4680 cells and has already brought us the cost-saving high-pressure cast chassis members.

When you can make a better car for less money you don't run into the demand wall until every other manufacturer is already decimated (or worse). That is called pricing power and is why other automakers are shaking in their boots (even if they show a brave face on mainstream media). If you want proof of how strong this trend is you need look no further than Tesla's quarterly reports over the last three years and compare to their so-called competitors. And there is no indication this trend will be ending anytime soon since it's becoming stronger, not weaker.

Someone saying the only thing standing between Tesla and their competitors is their Supercharger Network is the same thing as saying they don't understand what makes Tesla tick.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. To be clear, I wasn't necessarily saying that the supercharger network is the only thing standing between Tesla and the competitors. But considering that the network is usually listed as a main selling point for a lot of car buyers on this forum, i thought it was worthy of at least a brief discussion.

Your thoughts on manufacturing advantage is what I have been thinking as well. Once Texas/Berlin are fully ramped (and Fremont/Shanghai Continue to expand production), they will be making millions of cars per year and have a good chance of finally catching up to demand. At which point I think they will start lowering prices as they bring on new production to keep that sweet spot between demand and supply. They hopefully will be able to do this and still make a good profit by leveraging their manufacturing advantage. Exciting times.