Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

First, I'm not sure there's a big demand issue with the S/X. I looked closely at buying a new X this week, including an overnight test drive. Ultimately decided to wait for various reasons, but during the search it was clear that there is virtually no discounted inventory stock available. Tesla certainly isn't sitting on a bunch of units or we'd see more significant discounting.



*Raises hand*. We have a 3. We're likely getting an X at some point. Just trying to figure out the the best point.



We have a 3 and want an X. I looked at it closely this week but my wife and I ultimately decided that at $100k we can't justify it right now, when it's inferior to the 3 in some critical areas--charge rate and range, most notably. I strongly feel that Tesla's not going to let that situation linger all too long. We had hoped to find an inventory unit with a significant discount to justify jumping now, but there were none to be had in our config preference. Now we'll circle back in May or June when I believe at the least HW3 will be shipping, and maybe a pack improvement or a refresh. Who knows...

Fremont trip update: during today's drives, the 3 actively repositioned the car in the lane twice to avoid a pothole and a piece of junk in the road. I do not recall AP doing that before.

Also, we averaged 56 mph for the day *including* charging/meal stops. Try that in any other EV.

Wait! What?

AP repositioned the car to miss potholes and debris? For real?!?! Like the car drove off center? To specifically miss potholes and debris? For real?!?!

 

[Krugerrand]

Let’s not hold our breath for a Moody’s upgrade.

MOODY'S ANALYST BREAKS SILENCE: Says Ratings Agency Rotten To Core With Conflicts

Well, we didn’t need anyone to tell us that, but public confirmation is always nice. It’s a step. But a long way from having the place shutdown.

 

[Krugerrand]

I was thinking about this today, the SR will give Tesla a bad rap in the Northeast. I lose half of my battery capacity during the winter. That would give SR about 100-120 mile range on cold days.

You should stop thinking.

 

[anthonyj]

You should stop thinking.

Very helpful

 

[Pezpunk]

I was thinking about this today, the SR will give Tesla a bad rap in the Northeast. I lose half of my battery capacity during the winter. That would give SR about 100-120 mile range on cold days.

first of all, no, you do not lose half your range. second, if you're actually driving 100 miles, the battery warms up and you actually get the range back (without charging).

 

[LST]

Swiss Tesla Owners Club helps Tesla with deliveries, they just posted on FB an estimation on delivery numbers, highly interesting. My back of the napkin calculation: the deliveries in Switzerland from mid Feb to mid March should be between 2000 and 2500. Up to 100 deliveries a day. Swiss Tesla Owners Club on Facebook. Tesla's got a f**ing demand problem. Doomed for sure. /s

 

[humbaba]

If the system in the screenshot is for currently connected cars then I assume the mileage counter is the sum total of their odometers, and wouldn't include the distance driven by totaled cars that are no longer in existence. This could explain why the total is lower then expected. I have no idea what percentage of Teslas have been totaled.

Sure you do, its easy to calculate: 5k per ship x number of ships -- that is the number of ships totaled on the bottom of the ocean. All those Tesla's you see overseas are fakes, part of Musk's Potemkin village. Musk's Reality Distortion Field(TM) is used to mass hypnotize everyone into seeing the card board cutouts moving and the "occupants" don't realize that they are being driven to their destinations in Hummers, purchased using all of the reservation money. /s

 

[anthonyj]

first of all, no, you do not lose half your range. second, if you're actually driving 100 miles, the battery warms up and you actually get the range back (without charging).

On 20 degree days I was averaging 500-600Wh/mi. This is on chill+range mode.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I hate to say it, but Chanos is *very* smart. Many TSLAQ are intelligent. Some portion are stupid. Some, I'm pretty sure, are mentally ill and latching onto a group for social reasons.

There's one short who's active on Twitter who constantly says the *dumbest* crap about Tesla. He also posts on other topics that he's expert in, and it's evident that he's so sharp that there's no way he's not just lying whenever he posts about Tesla. There aren't many like that, but I'd actually say there are more smart liars than stupid fools in TSLAQ.

I don’t doubt it. Being smart doesn’t mean everything you believe is correct. In fact smart people tend to fall into the fallacy that because they are so smart and knowledgeable in one field, they think they are smart and knowledgeable in all fields.

 

[jerry33]

On 20 degree days I was averaging 500-600Wh/mi. This is on chill+range mode.

Did you set the charge time to start so that it would end about the time you start driving? Did you preheat the car for 30 minutes before driving? (both these need to be done with range mode OFF.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Survey confirms car purchases on hold as consumer interest turns electric | The Driven

Looks like the Aussies are waiting for July to buy the Model 3.

Are we seeing an iPhone moment? Ie. as people moved from phones to smartphones, they didn’t want to buy just any Smartphone, but an iPhone.

 

[KarenRei]

Did you set the charge time to start so that it would end about the time you start driving? Did you preheat the car for 30 minutes before driving? (both these need to be done with range mode OFF.

There is no proper way to actually measure the effect of cold on your winter range that doesn't actually involve actually seeing how far you can drive on a trip that actually depletes the vast majority of your pack. These "well, it read that I was burning X Wh/mi, so I just divide the pack size by that..." things that people do tend to give highly distorted results. And to have meaningful data, one also has to do a comparison summer drive with the same speeds, configuration, etc, and when quoting their data, cite what sort of conditions (temperature, road conditions, vehicle config, driving style, etc) the measurements were made in.

Which, BTW, is what the AAA study did - went through an almost entire charge depletion in controlled circumstances, on different types of drivecycles and in varied conditions.

 

[carterm2]

No more standard range Model S? Refresh coming soon

Can I pay for a refresh for my MS? What would it cost to get new motors and 2170 battery replacement at the service center? Hw3?

 

[DurandalAI]

I don’t doubt it. Being smart doesn’t mean everything you believe is correct. In fact smart people tend to fall into the fallacy that because they are so smart and knowledgeable in one field, they think they are smart and knowledgeable in all fields.

If you've ever worked in a hospital, you'll see it with doctors all the time. Some doctor with a PHD in medicine trying to tell me I'm wrong about MY career that I've been doing for the past 20 years. Sure, you know it all, that's why you're asking me for help....

 

[Menifeer]

OT Alert...

Haven't read all posts lately so may have already been mentioned - Just noticed that NIO is now trading weekly options.

 

[Tslynk67]

Now I've got Cramer on my back...

Jim Cramer on Twitter

 

[AndyH]

Here is what you need to know about Jim Cramer in his own words...and he says Elon has no respect for the SEC? Jim Cramer is only interested in Jim Cramer.

Dan

I finally got around to watching Cramers short and distort manual. That man really is the devil incarnated. Just a glimpse into this mans soul is chilling. And to top it off Youtube decided to show me the trailer for the next episode of The Grand Tour. It had the same devilish, end of days feeling as Cramer.

I feel so bad now. Buying some Tesla and cupious amounts of organic lapsang souchong won't even make up for half of it.

 

[KarenRei]

Can I pay for a refresh for my MS? What would it cost to get new motors and 2170 battery replacement at the service center? Hw3?

I love how someone randomly speculates that there will be a refresh coming soon based on the flimsiest of information, and people are already making assumptions on what the theoretical refresh will entail and asking if they can upgrade.

That doesn't mean a refresh isn't coming. But keep your socks on, people. The last report we had, from a month or two ago, was that a refresh team hadn't even formed yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was one this summer. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't. If there is one, I wouldn't expect a complete overhaul. IMHO: Interior electronics, most likely. Interior styling, next most likely. Exterior styling, average likelihood. Drive units, average likelihood. Pack architecture, below average likelihood, but possible. Cell type, very unlikely.

 

[VValleyEV]

I think we call it “tall poppy syndrome”.

Thanks, the bit that struck me about the history of Tall Poppy is the ancient practice of assasinating all who are especially successful in a community as a means to keep it under control of the king, and the parallel drawn with modern day “cyberbullying”:

« Research performed at the University of Waikato in New Zealand in 2015 shows that a culture of tall poppy syndrome may result in a reduction in average performance of up to 20% for an organisation and explains how electronic cyberbullying can be considered a modern extension to the physical assassinations of King Tarquin's day. »

Very interesting that instinctive dislike and distrust of successful that we see today has been around for millennium, and the implication that we should not blame any particular political ideology for it. There was another related concept in the wiki article that I read: “zero-sum prestige”, the idea that there is only a finite amount of prestige available, so to gain some you have to sabotage someone. Actually seems pretty accurate for small, isolated communities, and for street gangs, but the mentality really holds us back when applied to a large modern society that allows for economic and social mobility. Works for short sellers though.

Here’s the wiki article I read and enjoyed:
Tall poppy syndrome - Wikipedia

 

[Todd Burch]

On 20 degree days I was averaging 500-600Wh/mi. This is on chill+range mode.

You will see this initially, but it will drop to reasonable levels after a bit of driving. You will definitely not see 2x normal usage for the entire pack unless you're making several shorter trips with parked periods in between that allow the pack to cool off again.