Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I think I've become addicted. I'm waiting for my SEC fix and not doing well during this silent period.

Read the Vern Unsworth filings in the meantime, they have phrases like "engaged in sex with a horse" included...

 

[mrdoubleb]

Obviously good for investors if true, bad for owners. Open serious questions on how tightly privacy safeguards are enforced when someone with access to a tool that shows vitals for any car is so casual about taking and (letting distribute) a screenshot.

Depends on whether they can drill down or not. If they only see cumulative figures, there is no data privacy concern.

 

[Navin]

So why don't all of us bombard his twitter account with this YouTube clip and call him out?

Someone needs to get this to media that could write an article. Does anyone have any good connections to some media outlets friendly to Tesla??

 

[lascavarian]

Apparently not for the battery's long term health. Hence, the coupling. For me, long term health is more important then short term range. Your mileage may vary.

Dan

Correct, not an issue of pack health at all. Loss of regen capacity is an annoyance that only appears in cold conditions many people will never encounter.

It is also a bit OT so on to the market action.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Note that it's not just death: CO is very poisonous and can create permanent health damage even in non-lethal concentrations. For example low brain oxygen levels and brief unconsciousness can cause permanent brain damage.

CO knocks out a person in less than a second IIRC (a single breath of high enough concentration is enough), and it's colorless/odorless.

As a retired pulmonologist I have treated patients with chronic CO exposure. Odorless no symptoms during exposure but concentration problems prevalent. Can measur carboxyhemoglobin concentrations in blood. Once diagnosis made urged patients to investigate home CO concentrations with gas appliances and levels in car. Particularly older car (exhaust systems can develop leaks with age)

 

[Tslynk67]

I hate to say it, but Chanos is *very* smart. Many TSLAQ are intelligent. Some portion are stupid. Some, I'm pretty sure, are mentally ill and latching onto a group for social reasons.

There's one short who's active on Twitter who constantly says the *dumbest* crap about Tesla. He also posts on other topics that he's expert in, and it's evident that he's so sharp that there's no way he's not just lying whenever he posts about Tesla. There aren't many like that, but I'd actually say there are more smart liars than stupid fools in TSLAQ.

Sorry, but I think this describes everything I read from shorts on Twitter...

 

[dutchneon]

Funny you should mention that:

VW are still up to their extremely dirty anti health anti environment tricks.

They are lobbying for a EUR5k German EV subsidy to be limited to vehicles less than 4.65 metres in length. For cars longer than this they want the subsidy to be just EUR2k.

This is obviously a completely arbitrary policy created specifically to target Tesla (Model 3 is 4.69 metres). Given Model 3 is the only mass produced affordable EV capable of making a significant dent in pollution deaths and CO2 emissions in the near term, this is VW yet again putting their own financial interests ahead of people's health.

Proof to this? than this must go viral, if you have something on this i will get it on all dutch car blogs!

 

[dc_h]

View attachment 388748 http://www.cc.com/video-clips/rfag2r/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-exclusive---jim-cramer-extended-interview-pt--2

I hope you don’t mind, but I posted this on a Cramer comment on twitter. I suggest someone post this any time Cramer mentions Tesla.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I do think we will see many news about legacy car makers struggling this year. I hope not all gets construed as "recession is coming" but rather "new BEVs on the horizon make ICE buyers wait/reconsider"...

Survey confirms car purchases on hold as consumer interest turns electric | The Driven

Looks like the Aussies are waiting for July to buy the Model 3.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I remember in conference call hearing Musk speak about decreasing times that cars take from order to delivery. I have experienced this first hand. I ordered model3 and in 2 days had delivery scheduled for 6 days from order date. I assumed car was one that was refused or financing fell through but no they actually tracked it for me and was in transit to arrive day or 2 before delivery. Only one data point and fully optioned but given my experience with 5 previous tesla cars- shocking

 

[SebastianR]

Proof to this? than this must go viral, if you have something on this i will get it on all dutch car blogs!

Here you go: The Sueddeutsche Zeitung broke this first, they are reputable (also ref. e.g. their work in the Panama Papers):

VW drängt auf drastische Änderungen bei E-Auto-Förderung

Zugleich soll die Förderung von E-Autos in Abhängigkeit der Größe erfolgen, und zwar nach dem Prinzip: Kleine Autos werden stärker gefördert: So soll ein Wagen unter vier Meter Länge und mit mehr als 200 Kilometer Reichweite mit 5000 Euro gefördert werden. Ein Wagen von mehr als 4,65 Meter Länge dagegen nur mit 2000 Euro. Das dürfte BMW, Daimler und Tesla nicht gefallen, aber auch nicht der VW-Konzernmarke Audi: Sie setzen auf große Limousinen.

Hope you get the basics of the essence, happy to translate otherwise.

The Model 3 is longer (4,69) than 4,65 the VW I.D. is just a few cm shorter.

 

[shlokavica22]

OT: Porsche is ending one of their shifts due to collapsing demand in China:

China-Geschäft eingebrochen: Porsche streicht Nachtschicht im Leipziger Werk - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Wirtschaft

I do think we will see many news about legacy car makers struggling this year. I hope not all gets construed as "recession is coming" but rather "new BEVs on the horizon make ICE buyers wait/reconsider"...

Those are interlinked really. I'm afraid Germany will be hit hard by the TSLA revolution. It will get nasty.

 

[dc_h]

Wow... This was just posted on Reddit:

And counting : teslamotors

Showing 618128 cars currently "online / registered" with Tesla. Someone is about to get fired.

If end of Q4 2018 Tesla had 531268 cars delivered (is this right?), that means currently, there are 86,860 already manufactured this Q. Would probably have to take inventory into account (and take into account the original roadster numbers as they are not connected?), but still, that's a good number with a week and a half to go and the "big push" is next week... Record numbers again it seems

So this would not account for cars that have been totaled or that have gone completely offline? If so, you have to think this number would be at least 5000 higher production this quarter. Meaning 531268-5000+91860 for production this quarter?

 

[shlokavica22]

So basically what the shorts propaganda says is- the interest in TSLA cars is limited. Unfortunately for them, data shows otherwise:

It's almost as if the more Model 3's are in the wild, the more people are aware of it. Strange.

 

[jbcarioca]

Does anyone know when Model 3 will be available in England, Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand?

Elon tweeted “
Probably start Australia builds in late May or June & start arriving in winter”

 

[ReflexFunds]

I find it hard to understand Tesla's recent S/X strategy, but I think its actions point towards negotiating price cuts from suppliers and some form of technology refresh at the start of April.

If Tesla is tracking far behind target for S&X in Europe, I don't see why they wouldn't have shipped significant excess inventory for last minute sales. Now no S/X are available in Europe until May which means Tesla is missing 10 days of potential sales in Q1.

I think S&X volumes are obviously going to be significantly down in Q1, but so much of this seems to be deliberate and self inflicted by removing the most popular 75kWH option for most of the quarter and not shipping enough excess inventory.

We temporarily had software limited 100kWh options before they were removed and Tesla added a new lower price Standard Range 80/85kWh Model S to replace the 75kWh, but did not add a SR option for X. Now the new SR S has been removed just 3 weeks later. The S/X strategy is very confusing.

We had reports from a Tesla supplier on reddit that Tesla had cut S/X volumes 50%, but then at the end of February we had significant new price reductions on S/X together with guidance from Elon that he expects to produce 70-100k.

Overall, I think Elon was playing an aggressive negotiating hand with S&X suppliers, particularly Panasonic, to significantly lower pricing. I think he temporarily cut production rate to 50k and told suppliers this is all we can do unless you give us price cuts. I think after he got the price cuts, he lowered the S/X pricing and increased production targets back to 70-100k.

I think the 80/85kWh SR S (possibly depopulated 100kWh pack?) and software limited 100kWh S/X battery options were likely temporary measures to support sales and to buy time to prepare a S/X refresh. I think Tesla are aggressively trying to clear inventory by the end of Q1 to enable rollout of new technology at the start of Q2. They need to ensure all new orders will receive the latest tech and there is no Jan/Feb inventory still for sale. Most likely this new tech will be AP HW3 in all cars and a battery upgrade for S/X enabling 200kWh charge rates. Whether the new battery options will still be 85/100 or move to 85/120, 80/110 etc I have no idea. I think a refresh of the S/X design/interior is less likely, but also possible.

 

[Fact Checking]

Survey confirms car purchases on hold as consumer interest turns electric | The Driven

Looks like the Aussies are waiting for July to buy the Model 3.

To be fair there's a slow motion housing market crash in Australia happening right now:

Real Residential Property Prices for Australia​

which could lead to a long and painful recession. Drop in new car sales is often a leading indicator of recessions.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This is really hard due to the potential double-counting of leases: about 10% of all S/X sales are leased - so end of Q4 total deliveries is AFAICS detached from actual production, and Tesla never shared with us a precise fleet size. (Nor would they have any reason to do so, it would only help competitors and conspiracy theorists.)

My current Q1 estimate is 70k-80k deliveries and 90k-100k production, with very large error bars:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable​

I think it's highly unlikely leases are double counted and these stats would be based on a unique identifier by vehicle. The status chart underneath would make no sense if double counted.

 

[mongo]

Regen has a lot/everything to do with the pack temperature.

This is a thermal management technology discussion really. Losing regen changes one peddle driving for the worse. Mitigating loss of regen is a worthy goal separate from range capacity.

If regen could be decoupled from the pack such that regen was became consistent independent of temp, it would be a good thing.

In terms of pack temperature, assuming it will accept a charge from regen, city regen would be less impacted than highway due to the lower power levels required. Kinetic energy is proportional to the square of velocity, so there is also less energy expended and lost at lower speeds. The amount of regen collected is also dependent on speed as Teslas will not regen to a stop. So lower speed city travel has less opportunity for recapture. Overall, city driving involves less kinetic energy change more frequently, at lower powers which means that regen, or lack thereof, is likely less of a factor that the heaters. Indeed, one could do a calculation of the amount of energy lost due to not having regen versus the amount of energy lost to heating the pack to allow regen.

 

[schonelucht]

Other possibilities:

• It was taken and/or distributed without the knowledge or permission of the person who was accessing that screen.
• Only a summary screen was distributed, not private VIN data. Can you see private data in that screenshot? I cannot.
  
• This was hacked/leaked by a third party.

Wait? A 3rd party being able to hack into such a privacy sensitive system or personal communications between/devices of people with access to such a system at Tesla IS the worst-case interpretation. How are you making things better by suggesting that?

Taken/distributed without the knowledge or permission shows a lack in the policy or enforcement of policy that safeguards privacy and therefore raises serious questions, just like I stated.

Remains your second suggestion. I suppose you are not arguing this was an authorized distribution? But if it wasn't, then that once again shows lack of policy enforcement for accessing sensitive systems.

You again you are taking the extreme worst-case interpretation and are pretending that that's the only possibility - why?

Because none of the suggestions are in any way or shape more benign than what I stated. Your analysis here is clearly lacking experience with data security implementations. No serious professional in their right mind would have suggested '3rd party hack' as a better outcome.