Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

Falling back to where we were 24 hours ago is a crash?

Omg, what will we doooo??

 

[StrongGuy]

I don't know, the fact that Herz was only able to even consider getting 100,000 cars delivered and spent all the money on the advertisement and on the explanatory material you can see on their website on how charging works etc, was validating what we know to a much wider audience. Before they would dismiss it with 'fanboy talk' but to see Hertz put their money where their mouth is about this was certainly a shift in sentiment.

I think the Hertz deal is huge for Tesla. Free advertisement and lots of potential customers can try out a Tesla at Hertz.
The problem is that I think you're looking at this too logically. Retail apes do not think like you. They think 100k cars = good. Other apes buy TSLA so I Ape buy TSLA.
In fact, I think Elon's tweet shouldn't be considered bearish at all, since selling all cars at full price is a sign of strength, not weakness. The fact that that tweet popped the bubble is further proof that retail apes don't give a damn about Tesla's balance sheets. They follow other apes, not fundamentals.

 

[ZachF]

I called the top at 1700-2200

Lol…huh?

You haven’t even been here a month.

 

[MP3Mike]

The fact that that tweet popped the bubble is further proof that retail apes don't give a damn about Tesla's balance sheets.

How do you know that tweet popped the bubble? Maybe the recall for FSD beta is what popped the bubble. Or maybe it is something else we don't have any idea about... Maybe Elon sold his shares to cover taxes and that is what "popped" the bubble...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

After Elon's tweet yesterday about not having a signed Hertz deal, and what happened in the January run up (the biggest one day loss of the year occurred during that run), I was expecting a pretty significant drop today. Even with today's drop, it's still up about $50 for the week. 4 steps forward, 1 step back

 

[Singuy]

I think the Hertz deal is huge for Tesla. Free advertisement and lots of potential customers can try out a Tesla at Hertz.
The problem is that I think you're looking at this too logically. Retail apes do not think like you. They think 100k cars = good. Other apes buy TSLA so I Ape buy TSLA.
In fact, I think Elon's tweet shouldn't be considered bearish at all, since selling all cars at full price is a sign of strength, not weakness. The fact that that tweet popped the bubble is further proof that retail apes don't give a damn about Tesla's balance sheets. They follow other apes, not fundamentals.

You think retail apes dumped 700k shares premarket? Maybe they can move markets of what once AMC and GmE was at their microcap levels but this is Tesla. Retail apes get bread crumbs and get pushed around by real money

 

[Tyler34]

How do you know that tweet popped the bubble? Maybe the recall for FSD beta is what popped the bubble. Or maybe it is something else we don't have any idea about...

Maybe its the FUD that there were only 13k deliveries in China in October. #demandProblem

 

[Skryll]

You think retail apes dumped 700k shares premarket? Maybe they can move markets of what once AMC and GmE was at their microcap levels but this is Tesla. Retail apes get bread crumbs and get pushed around by real money

I would assume a large margin exposure reduction across retail could also be at play?

 

[bro1999]

After Elon's tweet yesterday about not having a signed Hertz deal, and what happened in the January run up (the biggest one day loss of the year occurred during that run), I was expecting a pretty significant drop today. Even with today's drop, it's still up about $50 for the week. 4 steps forward, 1 step back

Elon's tweet last night really makes no sense looking back at it. The only thing it really says is that Hertz is paying the same price as everyone else. If that's what he intended to convey, he could have just said it clearly instead of rambling about how there wasn't a signed contract. I mean Hertz hired Tom F**king Brady for a national ad campaign. Don't think they do that without *some* kind of deal in place.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This is what happened at beginning of the year in the run up to 883. There was a lot of ups and downs on the way to the peak on Jan 26, including the biggest loss of the year on Jan 11. So the question is whether today is another Jan 11, or is it a Jan 27th? I think the former.

Date	Price	Change
2021-01-26	$883.09	2.29
2021-01-25	$880.80	34.16
2021-01-22	$846.64	1.65
2021-01-21	$844.99	-5.46
2021-01-20	$850.45	5.90
2021-01-19	$844.55	18.39
2021-01-15	$826.16	-18.84
2021-01-14	$845.00	-9.41
2021-01-13	$854.41	4.97
2021-01-12	$849.44	38.25
2021-01-11	$811.19	-68.83
2021-01-08	$880.02	63.98
2021-01-07	$816.04	60.06
2021-01-06	$755.98	20.87
2021-01-05	$735.11	5.34
2021-01-04	$729.77	24.10

 

[StrongGuy]

How do you know that tweet popped the bubble? Maybe the recall for FSD beta is what popped the bubble. Or maybe it is something else we don't have any idea about... Maybe Elon sold his shares to cover taxes and that is what "popped" the bubble...

The stock shot up when the deal was announced and then crashed hard when Elon said there technically isn't a deal. It's pretty obvious this rally has been due to retail ape FOMO and not due to a changing perception of Tesla's valuation.

You think retail apes dumped 700k shares premarket? Maybe they can move markets of what once AMC and GmE was at their microcap levels but this is Tesla. Retail apes get bread crumbs and get pushed around by real money

I think some institutional apes also dumped their shares. To both retail and institutions, Tesla is just a meme stock that rallies every now and then.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Elon's tweet last night really makes no sense looking back at it. The only thing it really says is that Hertz is paying the same price as everyone else. If that's what he intended to convey, he could have just said it clearly instead of rambling about how there wasn't a signed contract. I mean Hertz hired Tom F**king Brady for a national ad campaign. Don't think they do that without *some* kind of deal in place.

I agree. I just expected the media and the market to overreact to it like they always do.

 

[thesmokingman]

The stock shot up when the deal was announced and then crashed hard when Elon said there technically isn't a deal. It's pretty obvious this rally has been due to retail ape FOMO and not due to a changing perception of Tesla's valuation.


I think some institutional apes also dumped their shares. To both retail and institutions, Tesla is just a meme stock that rallies every now and then.

Troll much?

 

[Mengy]

Buying the dip is half of it. I successfully sold the top pretty consistently.
I made good buys and sells in Q4 2019, March 2020, SP500 Inclusion, Buying at $580 after the drop from $900.

Thankfully I didn't HODL and made far more money trading.

Eh, I'm a firm believer that "time in the market beats timing the market". I'd rather not gamble with my present & future fortune, and simply HODL'ing is the easier less stressful path to wealth. Good luck though!

 

[Todd Burch]

Have to give Gary Black credit about selling at 1100. He's a very smart guy. He also timed $900 correctly.

Actually, it looks like we're seeing pretty good support here in the mid-to-upper $1100s, and it got into the $1220s before retracing a bit, so I'd say Gary didn't call this one. It's even possible we never drop below $1100 again, in which case Gary missed the opportunity to stay in if he sold at that level.

And I actually think there HAS been a change in market sentiment. Notice we're not crashing back to $800 where we were a few weeks ago. It could always fall more of course, but the support has been there all day today so far in the mid $1100s, which is still a significant increase from a few weeks ago. Too early to say what's going to happen here.

I highly doubt with a market cap this big that retail FOMO is going to cause such a substantial move in the price in such a short time without some big whales with deep pockets getting in.

 

[EVMeister]

Tesla is just a meme stock that rallies every now and then.

Short term memory problems? Maybe listen to the other StrongGuy who said the following less than 24 hours ago. Plenty of short term movements make little sense and take us on the forum here by surprise, but the long term trend are as solid as the company fundamentals. This is no "meme stock" and if you think it is you should probably sell and stay out of the stock.

You know, you do make a good point. I was skeptical about TSLA until their Q2 and Q3 reports, which eliminated any doubts about Tesla's ability to increase margins.
Maybe this time, it really is different.

 

[H Mak]

I'd really appreciate it if normal members would stop replying to the person I have put on ignore

 

[Rarity]

Elon's tweet last night really makes no sense looking back at it. The only thing it really says is that Hertz is paying the same price as everyone else. If that's what he intended to convey, he could have just said it clearly instead of rambling about how there wasn't a signed contract. I mean Hertz hired Tom F**king Brady for a national ad campaign. Don't think they do that without *some* kind of deal in place.

It appears that they had an agreement in principle, but not a signed contract. I am surprised that Hertz would run with this without a signed contract.

 

[anthonyj]

Plaid S obviously, available for Dec. delivery.

I have an S on order as well. I ordered one early this year, I’ve had estimated delivery dates for 6/20-6/30, then changed to July, August etc and now it’s January 15th. Kind of gave up on it that’s why I also ordered an X just in case it came sooner. I like the X better anyway

 

[Paul_SF]

I'd really appreciate it if normal members would stop replying to the person I have put on ignore

Slow day, everyone is wasting time.