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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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"When in Doubt, Build It Stout, of Something that You Know About."

That is a NASA AMES statement from the mid 1980s. It applied to anything that does not fly.

It is about dealing with doubt, design margin and time. The time it takes to design something is related to how close you are operating to "does not work" or "does not fit." For example if a miniaturization project is to provide all the functions in half the volume, it can take twice as long to develop the product as you are always running into yourself - lots of churn.

I would suggest that The WYMO choice of a minivan as a safety testbed will double the length of time required to accomplish full self driving - As the vehicle has little safety margin when driven by a trained driver. Introducing an unskilled driver puts the WAYMO system closer to an accident that hurts a person.


These specs have been culled for merging and accident avoidance.

Model X Specs 2021 Tesla Model X Review, Pricing, and Specs
Top gear, 30-50 mph: 1.3 sec
Top gear, 50-70 mph: 2.1 sec
Braking, 70-0 mph: 172 ft
Roadholding, 300-ft-dia skidpad: 0.86 g*

Pacifica Hybrid Specs https://hmg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/files/chryslerpacificaehybridltinitial2018-1536087663.pdf
Top gear, 30–50 mph: 3.3 sec
Top gear, 50–70 mph: 4.5 sec
Braking, 70–0 mph: 187 ft
Roadholding, 300-ft-dia skidpad: 0.81 g

Which platform is more forgiving for teaching "How to Drive" with no accidents?

There is a 2 second difference in 30 to 50 mph acceleration times. That means how much more computation time to correctly choose a merge gap?

Here is the obligatory Venn Diagram that says Tesla is the only company with the intrinsic safety margin to deliver FSD in a timely manner.

1635868265808.png


This post is a deeper look into TLSA differentiation. This deeper look justifies a much high price than is currently observed.
The benefits of performance margin for safely teaching autonomous driving is not a new discovery, I recognized this 5 years ago...

I am writing this here because of disappointment with the depth of analysts' thinking on TSLA. The shallowness of the work compared to the amount of money they steer is astounding. Spelling things out (adding understanding margin on communication) may help people in general recognize that TSLA is currently undervalued.
 
My dad who is a good historic buff explained the Chinese poem Musk posted.

The poem originated from the three kingdoms. King Cao Cao always hated his brother. His brother is known to be great poet and can write a poem after making 7 steps. So Cao Cao made a bet with the brother and said if you can make a poem after 7 steps then I wouldn't kill you. So after 7 steps the brother created this poem.

The meaning is that the bean is being boiled while the skin of the bean is used as fuel for the fire. As the bean boils, it is crying because of this. The bean and skin are suppose to be together, so why is there such a hurry to boil the bean?

The brother is saying how we are family and can sprout together, but instead there's such a hurry to use the skin of the bean to kill the bean.

After hearing this poem, Cao Cao shed some tears and decided to not kill his brother.

My dad thinks this is a message for the US government. How they are hanging Tesla out to dry even though they are on the same side. So why have such a hurry to destroy Tesla? Probably a response to the bill specifically have provision preventing Tesla from getting tax credit even if they unionize.
 
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LOL at the people saying this time, it was different and that the rally was due to the market "understanding" Tesla and not because of the Hertz deal + gamma squeeze.
Hope you learned your lesson. The market isn't rational at all and will never 'get' Tesla. I called the top at 1700-2200, but I think Elon's tweet popped it much sooner than expected. Still a lot better than people here who think it was just going to keep on climbing. Just LOL.
 
LOL at the people saying this time, it was different and that the rally was due to the market "understanding" Tesla and not because of the Hertz deal + gamma squeeze.
Hope you learned your lesson. The market isn't rational at all and will never 'get' Tesla. I called the top at 1700-2200, but I think Elon's tweet popped it much sooner than expected. Still a lot better than people here who think it was just going to keep on climbing. Just LOL.
Yes. It will never go higher than at closing last night. :rolleyes:
 
LOL at the people saying this time, it was different and that the rally was due to the market "understanding" Tesla and not because of the Hertz deal + gamma squeeze.
Hope you learned your lesson. The market isn't rational at all and will never 'get' Tesla. I called the top at 1700-2200, but I think Elon's tweet popped it much sooner than expected. Still a lot better than people here who think it was just going to keep on climbing. Just LOL.
What? :rolleyes:
 
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I think it will go higher than 1200 eventually, but it'll be AFTER Tesla proves they can expand earnings. Why would it go up when 99% of people think Tesla will fail? Makes no sense.
99% of the people thinks Tesla can't expand earnings? Even Gordon Johnson thinks Tesla will expand earnings. I would really like to know who the 99% of people are.
 
99% of the people thinks Tesla can't expand earnings? Even Gordon Johnson thinks Tesla will expand earnings. I would really like to know who the 99% of people are.
Most people think Tesla can't expand earnings to the point where it can justify its current valuation. That's why they are bearish on the stock.
The recent rise in TSLA is due to retail FOMO, not due to the market changing its opinion on Tesla's fundamentals.