Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Just because I have a different opinion about market sentiment on Tesla doesn't mean I'm a troll.

no you’re just not that well informed.

 

[Accident]

S3 Analytics: Tesla Shorts Scary October – Research: S3 Partners

research.s3partners.com

Some interesting things:





And what have the shorts been doing during this run up?



Why shorting more.

How much have they lost?



How much more shorting do you think they were doing today?

A lot of shorts learned their lesson in 2020, but some will never learn.

This one is basically shorting TSLA with the Martingale strategy:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/qiid53

 

[Boomer19]

I think the nicest way I can put it is...

Cramer = Trading entertainment

It is the only way someone could flip flop so much on so many companies when it suits his mood.

And the only thing that is consistent is his shtick (comic routine). It is apparent if you look just beneath surface and it ain't rainbows and unicorns.

yep…i can name 200 handles on TMC that know more about tesla than Cramer.

i’ve said it many times. he’s a cartoon.
a nice cartoon, but a cartoon

 

[OrthoSurg]

For the amount of margin you seem to be using, you should be able to negotiate around 2%.

Personally, I make no attempt to pay off my margin. As long as my investment grows faster than the margin rate, I'm better off leaving it in TSLA.

I have called to negotiate a lower %, they said they can lower it by 1% if I am over 5M on margin, they said they can’t reduce it since they offer free transactions now since 2 months ago. I laughed on the phone. The day after I opened my IBKR account last Friday. I am transferring all my assets this month to IBKR.

 

[MP3Mike]

Any guesses on how much short interest there was today?

The two sources are fairly close: 59% and 56.5%.

So it took quite a bit to get that 3% drop today.

Note: Yeah I know that those numbers don't mean that almost 60% of the activity today was short, but it does show there was a marked increase today.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Now who is bearish if you have cash left to sell puts? If you are all in on TSLA stock and call options all that’s left to do is to sell calls, and then get run over. I would prefer to sell puts but as soon as TSLA runs the only puts you can afford are way out of the money.

Cash? What is this cash you speak of? My short puts are usually secured by TSLA shares. Is that bearish?

 

[Singuy]

Tesla is ranked 2nd behind BYD according to 1600 people surveyed in China.

Consumers in China pick their 3 favorite electric cars — and only one is Chinese

Among the top brands were one from China, one from the United States and one from Germany.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you're unsure as an Investor about future customers for Tesla, watch this:

Silverph_NY_Tesla on Twitter: "@elonmusk “Dad, the Tesla’s talking!” Tobie is in the spotlight! I wish I can open and close the frunk automatically to give candies. Lots of videos I need to sort out. Thanks @ring ! #tesla @TOCNYS @Tesla @TeslaNY https://t.co/7G0UUs3cGS" / Twitter

Source video on Twitter: (retweeted by Tesla on Twitter). Also on Youtube:

Dad, the Tesla's talking! | Happy Halloween w. SMR (video starts at 5:27)

Cheers!

 

[MD70]

I agree risk for tsla is low and can be managed. But there is always tail event. For tsla, it’s not minuscule. If one day Pooh Winnie listens to his yesmen and decides to invade Taiwan, which looks more and more likely. Tsla is ****ed, at least for a long period of time

I agree also, whilst Tesla is a very unique company and all the cards are falling into place for it to become the dominant player in multiple markets, black swan events can come along which will temporarily (maybe lasting years) cause a setback.

I can think of the following:
1. Something happens (health wise) to Musk.
( In this scenario I would expect a big crash in the share price and then a recovery as I think Tesla is to far along now and some of the management are good enough to lead)
2. Natural disaster in California or Shanghai wrecking the factories.
3. China decides to invade Tawain. If the US intervenes I don’t expect it to go nuclear but no matter if the invasion succeeds or not, all western businesses in China will be in a very tricky situation and in the long run I would expect an economic decoupling.
4. Constitutional crisis in the US. If the republicans lose an election but if the republican states, delegates etc refuse to certify the election and the judiciary backs them we will have an unprecedented period where I have no idea how it will play out.

I would expect a recovery after all these events but if any of them happen when someone needs to sell for retirement or any other reason it will be bad luck with the timing.

I hope nothing like the above happens in the next 10-20 years but anyone who is a major investor has to keep in mind events can occur which are nothing to do with Tesla and which Tesla has no control over which will impact the share price for a certain amount of time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

MMs began a selloff of their delta-hedged shares at around 3:45 pm yesterday, which continued into the After-hrs session. We'll get a better view into how many Call contracts were closed to trigger this effect in the daily Open Interest report at 7 a.m. ET.

TSLA Pre-market volume is moderate; Macros are neutral:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,977.25 +16.00 (+0.10%)
As of 5:30AM EDT. Market open

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Nov 03, 2021 05:30 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$1161.74 -10.26 (-0.88%)
Pre-Market Volume	90,895
Pre-Market High	$1,168.04 (04:04:19 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$1,150.65 (04:32:31 AM)

 

[Tslynk67]

Someone here needs to Tweet Elon and ask him about the fuel-fired heater language in a recent EPA filing regarding the new Model X.

I learned about the filing from this Teslarati article: The new Tesla Model X is hiding an understated but incredible secret

You can read the filing embedded in the Teslarati article. There is also language that says "Description of fuel-fired heater / fuel tank evaporative system"

I could see an Espar heater like what one can install on a Sprinter van be a cool feature for a Tesla Camp Mode, but also as a way to get the additional PHEV tax credit in the new bill going through Congress. That would be hilarious if Tesla began installing fuel-fired heaters to make Teslas hybrids for tax credit reasons just to mess with government regulators and the OEMs. Yeah, Tesla can play these silly games, too.

Perhaps the contents page is a standard framework that needs to be followed, but if you read the attached document then section 08.06.02 = "Not applicable"

 

[jhm]

I would think they'd go through this: Enterprise Sales | Tesla

How long has this been up?

 

[EVMeister]

How long has this been up?

They've had some version of that page up since 2017 - Corporate Sales | Tesla.

 

[Prunesquallor]

In my newsfeed. Can’t find a link, so screenshot:

Tesla added to Uber London plan to boost electric car uptake

 

[jhm]

Regarding the Hertz hoopla, maybe someone has brought this up, but I had ten pages to get through and may have missed it.

Has anyone offered the possible conclusion that Hertz may have hired staff to go to the Tesla site and order all or most or many of the 100K cars the same way everyone else does? Sure, it would be time consuming, but, it would be one way to have done it.

Several have reported seeing Tesla cars in Hertz inventory already. I don't know, but this suggests to me that they may have been accumulating cars for a while already. Who knows, perhaps these orders are a big part of what has extended lead times?

Just a thought. Might be wrong, but it is not impossible, just highly improbable that they could have ordered some or all of their Tesla fleet this way.

Basically, er, essentially what I'm saying is that there may be no "deal" at all and all the fuss is a product of some of those reporting being unfamiliar with a no-dealership/no-bargaining type of car purchase.

I have made the distinction between Hertz as a customer of Tesla versus Hertz as a partner with Tesla. There is no agreed-to partnership, yet Hertz has taken delivery of a certain number of cars. I don't see a strategy reason why Tesla would need to "partner" with any car rental company. The same products, prices and services can be equally extended to all fleet owners without any partnership that gives preference to one customer over another.

 

[Artful Dodger]

MMs began a selloff of their delta-hedged shares at around 3:45 pm yesterday, which continued into the After-hrs session. We'll get a better view into how many Call contracts were closed to trigger this effect in the daily Open Interest report at 7 a.m. ET.

The Daily Open Interest report is out, and it seems that the net number of open call contracts for this Friday has actually INCREASED. Max Pain remained at the same level as the previous day. Here's a screenshot of my "Open Interest" history for this Friday's contracts:

My experimental "C-P Brkpt" analysis has actually gone up by 5 bucks today to $1,165. As well, there are a fair number of Puts open at the $1,160 Strike which should engage some SP support from MMs.

Cheers!

 

[jhm]

Regarding Elon’s tweet about the Hertz deal not having any economic impact on TSLA. Imo this is wrong.

What will happen from Hertz’s order is that delivery times will go up, then Tesla will raise the prices and make more profit per sold car(also for the cars so to other costumers). This has an economic impact. If Tesla can raise a Model 3 price by $3k that’s 10% extra margins, that’s a lot. And clearly Tesla can raise the prices as they have done so even with cost to produce a car going down with scale, localization and vertical integration. Margins will go up and this will start to show in the next quarters.

If it is hard to see, make a more extreme hypothetical. Let’s say Hertz ordered 10M cars. Would this have zero economic impact with Tesla still being supply constained? No obv Tesla would raise the prices a lot for the people willing to pay a premium to not wait 5 years, lots of Model 3 orders would convert into Model S orders, some Model S orders would convert into Plaid orders to not have to wait as long.

TLDR: When you are supply constrained, more demand will increase your margins which has an economic impact.

Exactly, but this also explains why Tesla does not benefit from extending any sort of discount to Hertz. Just the opposite, when the Hertz of the world place more orders, the price should go up, not down. So I interpret Musk's point as meaning that Tesla's economics do not improve by extending any discount to Hertz. Hertz and other fleet buyers are obviously trying to negotiate discounts, but there is no upside to Tesla for conceding discounts.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455740853285277700

 

[Cobbler]

With Tesla's debt being low (and going lower?): will a rate increase affect Tesla that much?

 

[Dreadnought]

I had been curious about the total FSD Beta fleet size and - to the extent of my knowledge - the only information we had so far were Elon's tweets about the rollout to 100, 99 and then lower safety scores. Now Tesla filed an official recall with NHTSA. While insideevs also had an article, only Electrek pointed out that the affected S/W version 2021.36.5.2 refers to the limited FSD Beta and 11,704 is the number of vehicles that had it installed as of last weekend.

For reference:
https://electrek.co/2021/11/02/tesl...utomatic-emergency-braking-done-over-the-air/

Tesla's recall report:

Part 573 Safety Recall Report 21V-846 | PDF | Trailer (Vehicle) | Vehicles

RCLRPT-21V846-7836

de.scribd.com