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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Agreed.

Twitter has legions of fake accounts used to push propaganda by various governments. All of those accounts are able to vote.

Of all the people in the world, who do you think is one of the most likely to know that legions of fake Twitter accounts exist and how they might vote?

Exactly! Elon does not leave billions of dollars to blind chance.

Why are people seemingly so slow to grasp what should be self-evident truths?
 
Note that Elon's twitter account has gained 0.2 million "followers" in the past day. This poll is being gamed heavily by a drone swarm of bots. Elon owes no loyalty to the mob on twitter.

* bots
* brigading/viral spread

all 3 are possible reasons and essentially the last 2 aren't necessarily that different. If you tell a friend and he votes his own opinion it's viral spread, if you tell a friend and he votes what you tell him to vote it's brigading but we can't tell the difference, still a human clicking the poll.
 
MODERATOR:
The weekend is mostly over and, not at all surprisingly, the majority of posts have been directly and indirectly focused on Mr Musk's tweet.

A few observations:

  • The waves of posts have sloshed back and forth over the same questions, the same answers, the same conclusions. Many of them wrong, many of them half-cocked, and many, many of them drawn from ignorant assumptions. The correct answers, provided by individuals who fully understand the complexities, have been ignored by seemingly most of the others, regardless of how many times they have been posted.
  • The next revelation or nuance that someone is about to post? Guess what? It also was posted some 3 to 30 times already. It does NOT add to the discussion.
  • That is, unfortunately, also to have been expected.
  • The likelihood of this discussion drawing peacefully to an end either this evening or tomorrow is....well, you know:rolleyes:
At SOME TIME, I am going to step in and put an END to it. After that time, any further such posts will be deleted; those posters may find themselves muted for some indeterminate time.
FAIRLY WARNED
 
Exercising options isn’t dilutive because those option shares were already included in the fully diluted EPS calculations. Just like other employee stock options are also automatically included in such calculations. The street just assumes people aren’t dumb enough to not exercise their options.

If options are not exercised, they expire (remain treasury shares) and are not dilutive. Regardless of when accounting considers them dilutive, they can only be actually dilutive if they are exercised. This is because such options are, in fact, the option to buy the represented shares from the company's treasury shares. If they are not exercised, they remain in the treasury (which is owned by all shareholders). Thus it is the action of exercise which completes the dilution. Whether they are considered dilutive at issue because they are assumed they will likely be exercised, I don't know. But, if so, that would only be an accounting detail that would be negated if the options were left to expire.
 
That only applies when the inner circle is selling because the company is performing badly or because they know bad news is coming. Elon is only selling for tax and political purposes. Kimbal has been selling regularly, also just before this big runup. Which shows his selling is not related to inside information. Other insiders have also sold regularly and randomly, missing out on a lot of stock appreciation. The only ones making a fuss about it are the TESLAQ crowd.
Thank you for the explanation. Makes sense. Despite all the numerous negative reactions to my post and being labeled ”uninformed”, I was just wondering out loud. As such I admitted being uninformed in the first place.
 
That is a very realistic possibility and one that I was concerned about starting around the time TSLA first broached $1200/share. It's not good for the stock or the mission for TSLA to run too far ahead of current fundamentals. TSLA has shown an uncanny ability to grow more rapidly than any large industrial company in this era and a good degree of that should factor into the current valuation. But to factor it all in (minus the time value of money), leaves us with a stock that can only grow at the rate the time value of money allows it to. It's much better for TSLA's valuation to continue to grow as Tesla proves it can continue to execute at a superior level to the competition (which is still primarily ICE cars, lest anyone has forgotten this fact).

Elon has knocked the share price down before (to the benefit of long-term shareholders) and I must assume he will continue to do it again at key inflection points whenever it will benefit the overall mission. Elon knows the effect of such actions will be short-lived because, ultimately, the company is valued on it's growth and productivity, not Elon's Tweets. Even though we know this, some shareholders still react like preschoolers having a fit. The share price never goes down very far, nor does it stay down for very long, but people continue to have fits over Elon's Tweets. They are blind to what he is really doing and I get tired of calming these moaners and complainers down and telling them it will be alright. It's the same people almost every time and it's as if they are incapable of learning anything from past experience. Each time Elon Tweets something these people think is improper or controversial, it's the same thing all over again!

It wouldn't surprise me to see the share price continue to rally well past $1400 in the coming several weeks. If that happens, I shiver to think of what would have happened without the Tweet. Because hyper-rallies that extend beyond Tesla's natural rate of growth are not sustainable and do a disservice to regular shareholders, employees of the company (both future and present), media perceptions, analysts reports and potential new customers. A relatively stable and consistently rising share price is far better than a spastic, unpredictable share price. I don't mind volatility myself but most people can't process it very well and it ends up reflecting poorly on the company and their mission.

When will people come to their senses and learn these basic truths?
@DaveT recently interviewed Bryan Werlemann, a long-term TSLA holder who reported (16:00 in the video) going to a philanthropy fundraiser at SpaceX in 2013 and having a lengthy conversation with Elon in which Elon insisted TSLA was overvalued at $190 pre-split. I do not believe Elon's statements about valuation are very accurate.

I also think that we are still *behind* the fundamentals by a huge margin. The market will be GOBSMACKED by the profits coming the second half of next year.

I recently posted more detailed projections in the short term projections thread. Q4 '22 operating income will be about $10 billion (+/- $4b for a 95% confidence interval). Share price projection $2700 by the time Q4 '22 results are posted in Jan '23.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...cial-projections.116065/page-229#post-6097596

 
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I’m definitely not an expert here, but what would happen if Elon said #$@&you and didn’t exercise those options? I would propose that the state of California and the US govt get ZERO because the options would expire and there is nothing to tax. Of course, Elon also gives up his 50% of the gains as well. When I received employee stock options, it was at the market price at the time, thus no financial incentive at the time granted (so no immediate taxable effect on either the company or individual). Some of those I exercised and paid taxes on the gain (difference between issued strike and current price at the time of exercise). Others, I left unexercised and never paid any taxes on (because they were underwater).

Crazy? Maybe so, but Elon could negotiate future incentive options, never set foot in CA again, and those options wouldn’t be taxed by CA. Maybe a great negotiation tool with various govt officials.
Government loses as much or more than Elon? I'm reminded of a tax hysteresis effect somewhat akin
to the Laffer curve, which I generally disdain since I don't believe much in "trickle down" voodoo ...

To wit, I followed a British electric folk rock group named Steeleye Span in the 1970s, when
the U.K. tax rate could be as high as 90%, as it was for a while in the U.S. According to legend,
on one of the band's tours they tossed the money from the gate receipts back into the audience,
saying they might as well keep the $ (or pounds) since it would otherwise almost all go to the
government. "Hard Times for Olde England" was one of their songs.

(This story may be apocryphal as I can't find it via Internet search right now.)
 
My god . . . It’s plummeted back to levels we haven’t seen since last Monday! 😱
Still making cars that are all ready sold, and where is my Cybertruck?! The outrage is mind numbing, please anyone considering selling tsla on monday, please cancel your CT reservation as well, so I can get mine earlier. Thank you in advance.
 
Government loses as much or more than Elon? I'm reminded of a tax hysteresis effect somewhat akin
to the Laffer curve, which I generally disdain since I don't believe much in "trickle down" voodoo ...

To wit, I followed a British electric folk rock group named Steeleye Span in the 1970s, when
the U.K. tax rate could be as high as 90%, as it was for a while in the U.S. According to legend,
on one of the band's tours they tossed the money from the gate receipts back into the audience,
saying they might as well keep the $ (or pounds) since it would otherwise almost all go to the
government. "Hard Times for Olde England" was one of their songs.

(This story may be apocryphal as I can't find it via Internet search right now.)
Yes, that band name rings a bell. Or something.

Since we are still on the extra long weekend and off-topic, may I contribute another anecdote?

In 1976 the famous author Astrid Lindgren penned an article in a leading Swedish tabloid bemoaning how she had to pay OVER 100% taxes (on margin) just before the general elections. The Minister of Finance at the time, Gunnar Sträng, tried to pooh-pooh and mainsplain her, only it turned out that he did not quite grasp the concepts of slightly higher math such as deltas, derivatives and such. Well, he was also coming from humble origins, like the author of Pippi etc and maybe not so educamacated even though he got wealthy enough to buy a stone house in Old Town while lambasting other "capitalists". (Funny how that sounds so familiar?)

That led to the party of 44 years hegemony losing the election and the government having to resign, to much chagrin in many quarters. Olof Palme wept in private.

Also, the Beatles had a big hit called Taxman. "There's one for you, nineteen for me" -- uh oh Mr Wilson, uh oh Mr Heath.

Laffer curve is mathematically trivial to prove: a continuous function with two nulls must have a max or min in between.
Politically, not so much.
 
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If options are not exercised, they expire (remain treasury shares) and are not dilutive. Regardless of when accounting considers them dilutive, they can only be actually dilutive if they are exercised. This is because such options are, in fact, the option to buy the represented shares from the company's treasury shares. If they are not exercised, they remain in the treasury (which is owned by all shareholders). Thus it is the action of exercise which completes the dilution. Whether they are considered dilutive at issue because they are assumed they will likely be exercised, I don't know. But, if so, that would only be an accounting detail that would be negated if the options were left to expire.

Dude, you are using some technical definition of dilutive that no one uses with regard to public companies and stock options. As far as Tesla public accounting statements go, Musk exercising these options have zero effect on EPS calculations, which is all anyone cares about.