Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tommy O]

@tivoboy welcome back. you don't know me, but I lurked a lot while you used to trade on volatility in TSLA and post here a (few years???) ago. time passes quickly.

your near term price predictions were quite impressive. until they weren't. but you definitely had a great batting average, from what i remember.

take my comments as you will, but i'm not trying to insult you.

Edit: your timing to come back into this thread is hilarious, though.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Man.....lotta panties in a lot of bunches today. Never mind that the naked shorting needed to keep SP under 1225 for just the last two days is likely on par with Elon's selling.

@Artful Dodger was kind enough to illustrate Friday afternoon.....

Think of how many buy orders MM's had to eat across the last two days of the trading week to keep things under control.

I'm sure Citadel would be more than happy to take 17M real shares off Elon's hands to get their books in better shape.

 

[Singuy]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/qp126b

 

[tslagreen]

I’m usually pretty good at math here, but doesn’t 92 million shares pledged to lenders indicate about nearly 110 BILLION in current stock value pledged.. certainly he pledged stock at 20$ and 50$ and 100$ and 200$, etc, but still this amount pledged as collateral - why isn’t anyone thinking about that.. that must be certainly more than 50% his net ownership of Tesla pledged to lenders.

Elon Musk faces a $15 billion tax bill, which is likely the real reason he's selling stock

Elon Musk faces a tax bill of over $15 billion in the coming months on stock options, making a sale of Tesla stock this year likely regardless of the Twitter vote.

www.cnbc.com

disclaimer: I already sold positions last week at $1210, so I’m not short or long but will certainly buy back ~$8XX ish, and lower.

I love when people disclaim they sold at a recent top and, of course, will buy back at lower SP. Brilliant!!

 

[Evoforce]

Elon should donate some shares to Tesla employees, nice work-hard bonus and moat jab to the unions. Make it have a hold stipulation. I get a 1% finders fee of course.

It might be hard for those employed Teslanaires to remain focused at work and many could choose early retirement.

 

[tivoboy]

@tivoboy welcome back. you don't know me, but I lurked a lot while you used to trade on volatility in TSLA and post here a (few years???) ago. time passes quickly.

your near term price predictions were quite impressive. until they weren't. but you definitely had a great batting average, from what i remember.

take my comments as you will, but i'm not trying to insult you.

Edit: your timing to come back into this thread is hilarious, though.

Ha ha.. yeah, 2018 was good.. i paid for my M3 five times over that year.. and now, selling TSLA at $1200 (among many others things like ZM, MSFT, PTON, MRNA), well I’m most likely retiring 10 years earlier than I expected.. so yeah, things are very good - and I still LOVE my M3.

 

[Mengy]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/qp126b

Woah, look at Dan Ives go Super Bullish!!!

 

[tivoboy]

Woah, look at Dan Ives go Super Bullish!!!

Indeed, just SHOCKING!

 

[FireMedic]

This may be too meta for me. Anyone care to have a crack at it?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457507178437390342

 

[SN_8]

It took me waaay too long to realize that "pp" meant profile picture... which I guess makes his tweet slightly less bad than I originally thought

 

[Tommy O]

Ha ha.. yeah, 2018 was good.. i paid for my M3 five times over that year.. and now, selling TSLA at $1200 (among many others things like ZM, MSFT, PTON, MRNA), well I’m most likely retiring 10 years earlier than I expected.. so yeah, things are very good - and I still LOVE my M3.

Last OT from me while the weekend is still ongoing:

If you have a spare vehicle, sell that model 3 immediately and buy a brand new one. You'll effectively reset your odometer and get brand new everything for the money you sell your old one for. Used Tesla prices are wild. I say if you have a spare because it's gonna be a long while before you can get a new one...the backlog is enormous.

To segue to on topic a bit, I've been trying to get a model 3 for 6 months. I was on the phone with Tesla today to figure out where the heck my car is, since I've already been assigned a VIN a few weeks ago and I've paid for it in full with an ACH transaction. Tesla phone person mentioned that the backlog is growing, even though I didn't ask about it. Tesla phone person two days ago mentioned something similar.

Get your orders in now!

 

[22522]

I scrolled thought the entire Build Back Better Bill.

The EV stuff can be found by searching for 136401 at this link: https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/hr5376/text/dhg-406835

I was not able to obtain a pdf newer than September 27, so using the search anchor at the web link above was the only way that worked for me.

(j)​

Assembly and content qualifications​

​

For purposes of this section—​

​

(1)​

Domestic assembly qualifications​

​

The term domestic assembly qualifications means, with respect to any new qualified plug-in electric vehicle, that the final assembly of such vehicle occurs at a plant, factory, or other place which is operating under a collective bargaining agreement negotiated by an employee organization (as defined in section 412(c)(4)), determined in a manner consistent with section 7701(a)(46).​

I was not able to find the sections referenced above. Maybe someone can help?

There is 15% help on an electric bike and I was not able to figure out if this is the last year for Roth conversions.

 

[winfield100]

Government loses as much or more than Elon? I'm reminded of a tax hysteresis effect somewhat akin
to the Laffer curve, which I generally disdain since I don't believe much in "trickle down" voodoo ...

To wit, I followed a British electric folk rock group named Steeleye Span in the 1970s, when
the U.K. tax rate could be as high as 90%, as it was for a while in the U.S. According to legend,
on one of the band's tours they tossed the money from the gate receipts back into the audience,
saying they might as well keep the $ (or pounds) since it would otherwise almost all go to the
government. "Hard Times for Olde England" was one of their songs.

(This story may be apocryphal as I can't find it via Internet search right now.)

OT
@loquitur
just say
“Alexa, play ‘hard times of old England’ by Steeleye Span”

(very similar to Renaissance)(if memory serves)

 

[Drumheller]

This may be too meta for me. Anyone care to have a crack at it?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457507178437390342

Edge Lord.

Something people say when making fun of someone who is trying to be edgy.


I need to sell some shares by close on Tuesday. First time selling shares. I need the funds to close on a house and get out of renting. Should have sold on Friday but I thought Friday's close looked positive for Monday. Wish I could hold through the dip but I've got a hard deadline.

 

[The Accountant]

This may be too meta for me. Anyone care to have a crack at it?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457507178437390342

edgelord Meaning & Origin | Slang by Dictionary.com

An edgelord is someone on an internet forum who deliberately talks about controversial, offensive, taboo, or nihilistic subjects in order to shock other users in an effort to appear cool, or edgy.

www.dictionary.com

 

[3'sterly]

Sometime between Thursday and mid to late 2022.

There’s another outlier option.
After a stock ‘dividend’

 

[Sofie]

Sometime between Thursday and mid to late 2022.

Well that’s settled. Thanks guys.

 

[PeterJA]

...Think of how many buy orders MM's had to eat across the last two days of the trading week to keep things under control.

I'm sure Citadel would be more than happy to take 17M real shares off Elon's hands to get their books in better shape.

Exactly. But if I were them, I would short some more at first to try to deepen the dip. Also, big buyers will likely wait to see how deep it goes before they start gobbling again. But last Friday morning, there were a ton of puts from $1000 to $1100, and I expect there are more now. Market Makers may try to protect those.

Many funds benchmarked to S&P500 are reportedly underweight in TSLA. They know they need shares, but they may play chicken with each other, waiting for the dip bottom before they jump in. Then they will jump with a vengeance, so I predict a V-shaped recovery.

I know we should probably not discuss this anymore (and my post can be deleted if so, that’s okay by me) but any thoughts as to when we may see 1200 again?

Tuesday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/qp126b

I agree with Dan that "The linchpin to the overall bull thesis on Tesla remains China..." Except for the linchpins in Texas and Berlin, and the ageing-but-expanding linchpin in Fremont. Tesla has a green tidal wave of linchpins coming, Dan.

 

[Todd Burch]

My assessment is that this dip won’t last long. Maybe things stabilize short-term in the $1100s, then we hit new ATHs after Berlin and Austin start producing.

 

[Cattledog]

My assessment is that this dip won’t last long. Maybe things stabilize short-term in the $1100s, then we hit new ATHs after Berlin and Austin start producing.

I think the high risk question for this week will be: approximately what will TSLA's low be this week and what will be its end of week, or mid-week high. Because if we had a pair, and we were spot on on our projections, there may be a mint to be made out there. Or lost. For example, if it dropped to $1,100 on Monday or Tuesday and then rebounded to $1,200 by Thursday or Friday, what could you make if you bought $1,150 (or pick a price) Calls for Friday near the low and sold near the high? 10X? 20X? 50X? Better odds than a lottery ticket...but potentially as painful as catching a falling knife.