RobStark
Well-Known Member
That is the 32 gWh more than Sweden has today. And more lithium ion batteries than the world produced in 2010.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
That is the 32 gWh more than Sweden has today. And more lithium ion batteries than the world produced in 2010.
This is horrifying. Legitimately stomach turning as an investor.
Fortunately, their source code is far from finished. As Elon says, he doesn’t care for moats but instead the pace of innovation.
anthonyj
Stonks
The person you sell to at $350 in 3 months is going to say the same thing at $270 in 6 months lol. It’s an endless cycle
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Filing deadlines are generally until midnight court local time zone, i.e. until midnight 26th ET.
Next week 26th is just a submission deadline whether to hold an evidentiary hearing. The evidentiary hearing, if any, will then be scheduled at another date.
The judge can make various rulings anytime, but to declare Elon contemnor requires an oral hearing - with a "master" present if necessary. Once the contempt hearing is held she can either rule from the bench, or has 60 days to issue a written ruling.
She can on the other hand immediately dismiss the SEC's motion if she sees it unjustified - but it would be unusual and "risky": there's no harm for the judge to hold a hearing.
It's hard to tell what's going on right now:
- Elon's motion for leave to file is pending, independently of the evidentiary filing deadline.
- So in principle if the judge does nothing, Elon's lawyers will file a memorandum by the 26th outlining why they think an evidentiary hearing is necessary.
- But I think the judge will do something until the 26th - federal judges are rarely passive-agressive, they simply tell the parties what they expect. Right now there's procedural uncertainty, and I expect Judge Nathan to resolve it one way or another - potentially before the 26th.
I don't know how much of a "home court advantage" the SEC has at the S.D.N.Y.: they have hundreds of cases there every year, and they win almost all of them. I don't know how much tailwind this gives the SEC - in theory "nothing", but practice might differ.
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anthonyj
Stonks
A snapshot of the NN coefficients also doesn't allow them to improve the AP NN at all (unless they also took the entire data set and training SW, but 300k files seems light for that).
ZachF
Active Member
anthonyj
Stonks
I’m thinking a bankruptcy announcement. That would put us at $420 because that’s how TSLA rolls.
Btw Advanced Summon is rolling out
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
OT ish, if anyone wants some Grimes insight, a few mentions of Elon
Outline - Read & annotate without distractions
Outline - Read & annotate without distractions
shlokavica22
Member
The statement was not clear. For people with less information about options it even might be misleading.
He is also far from suffering loss. Projecting much?
Just curious. Is Canadian your first or second?
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Okay, if we're discussing strategies, here's mine. (No one correct strategy. Depends on level of risk/reward you seek AND what you're comfortable with. Will take time, and likely some losses, to figure this out.)
I have a core share position, along with some Leaps. I never sell calls, as I find it too worrisome. And I don't sell puts either (no need to magnify my risk w/ an already large position).
Then I have a trading strategy: On any major pullback (30 point minimum), I start buying shares (not part of the core position, but to sell later). If the stock drops further, I add Leaps to the trading position (400 strike). And if it continues to drop, I add shorter term calls (but still at least five/six months out, 400 strike). And if it continues to drop I will add even shorter term calls (but never closer than 3 or 4 months). So this is where we are now, though I'm still only buying Aug/Sept calls. I'm mostly filled up on my trading position. I start unloading these shares and calls when the stock moves back up 30-50 points at least. I find I can make at least 2 to 3x profit. And that's good enough for me as a leverage play.
(Have to have considerable patience and discipline (can't get greedy) for this strategy -- if you buy short term calls too soon, and the stock doesn't bounce or continues to fall, the calls decay rapidly, losing 50% or more in value.)
Finally, I have a crazy lotto strategy that has been quite fruitful. TSLA options are relatively expensive, so I don't generally hold puts to insure my account. But come Wed/Thurs of every week, with the weekly option prices rapidly decaying, I buy puts equivalent to cover a portion or all of my position. Anywhere from 2 cents to a dollar (usually 10-30 cents though), depending on technicals, news, other developments, etc. Buying on Thursday is especially good deal, since they expire the next day. I don't spend more than what I can lose, because I fully expect those options to expire worthless.
My initial thinking was you never know what could happen with Tesla, and it's silly not to spend a few cents every week insuring my considerably large holdings, even though it's only good for a day or two. But the thing is that bad (or good) news often comes on a Thursday or Friday. Specifically, 3 times last year bad news hit on a Thursday/Friday (Joe Rogan, SEC suit, can't remember the other one), and then one time this year (the email in January of profit warning, layoffs). The next day, my penny options were worth anywhere from a few bucks to ten dollars or more. I made serious bank on those plays.
I've now expanded this lotto option strategy to also buying calls, because I'm expecting good news to drop also this year, hopefully on a Thursday/Friday. So far I only made money on the puts, with my calls wasted, but fingers crossed.
So yeah, there you go. I'm not an expert or pro, and the above is obviously not investment advice, but just my two cents. GLTA!!
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anthonyj
Stonks
Kk buying calls. Elon bout to spank Jim Cramer and the shorts. I’m crying lmao
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, don't get too excited just yet! We have credible reports that the Panasonic cell supply limits Telsa produciton to the equivalent of ~6K LR Model 3s per week.
Further we know that Tesla only began producing SRs around the beginning of March. SR's reduced cell count, combined with the likely SR/LR production mix (yesterday I est'd 4K LR + 3K SR) doesn't give enough time to raise the quarterly average to well above the bounds of even pure SR production, esp. when SR prod. just began.
Another possible explanation is that the 'Garage' pgm shows all registered VINs, meaning it includes cars planned for production, but not yet produced, and shouldn't be interpreted as current cumulative production.
Finally, there is hope! We saw with the last Int'l VIN registration date (Mar 6) and the last Int'l shipment (Mar 10 to China) that production closely follows VIN assignment, and further that production could be close to 1K per day.
Yesterday I further est'd "86K Model 3s delivered in 2019Q1, plus 7K in transit". I'll stick with those est's until we get the real numbers in about 10 days. Market seems to like what's it hearing, though.
Cheers!
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