Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

I took the high - low for each trading day in a calendar month and averaged those

Wilder started with a concept called True Range (TR), which is defined as the greatest of the following:

• Method 1: Current High less the current Low
• Method 2: Current High less the previous Close (absolute value)
• Method 3: Current Low less the previous Close (absolute value)

ok
i take for day range either, High - Low OR High - Close OR Close - Low, whichever is MAX is day range (no need for absolute value tho)
=MAX(C10-D10,(ABS(C10-E11)),(ABS(E11-D10))) (revised formula)added ABS olute to ensure positive number

EDIT: looking at above formula, i may need to look closer at it, as I may have errors (revised)

then do a simple moving average, I think 14 day is usually used but I like a 20 day
=AVERAGE(OFFSET(P10,0,0,Q$5,1))

(P10 is number i'm averaging and No offsets from P10, Q$5 is the number of days to average and 1 column wide)

 

[Paul_SF]

Elon stopped the craziness, again. Great work, like always.

“Let’s get back to work, we have *sugar* to do and it’s a long way to get there!”

Nothing changed, just the price of the, everything is on track.

Q4 is going to be

 

[Thekiwi]

No one. I would say no one has a clue about the China numbers. Where is China?

Elon knew. He made sure no one found out.

No action by him and the stock would be ....1300 now? 1350?

All in good time. In Elon we trust.

I’m not sure Shanghai producing a few thousand more units a month than expected is particularly market moving news with the market cap over $1 Trillion. The current market cap assumes Tesla will be making 5 million+ vehicles annually at very high profit margins within a few years.

 

[BornToFly]

The government probably lost more in short term losses from regular investors than it made in long term gains from Elon. This also hurt regular investors much more than it hurt Elon. Hopefully certain brain dead politicians learned something this week (but probably not). Luckily for me, my paper gains/losses on my shares mean nothing as I plan on HODLing for a long time. Living expenses are paid for by the "other thread," and the dip netted an additional $328k today selling options, so as far as my cash balances go, today was as good a day as any, and I'll make money if we go back 1200 or drop to 800.

 

[JusRelax]

I’m not sure Shanghai producing a few thousand more units a month than expected is particularly market moving news with the market cap over $1 Trillion. The current market cap assumes Tesla will be making 5 million+ vehicles annually at very high profit margins within a few years.

According to the most recent Jeffries analyst report, a $1400 price target 1 year from now aligns with 3mil vehicles sold in 2025.

I would link the report, but on my phone so can't right now.

 

[Discoducky]

For 2021 total production, I was in the 900k camp, but am now starting to lean into the 925k camp and 950k is nearly on the table with October being stellar with an entire week off for Shanghai (hoping to see actual production numbers some point soon though as all I've seen is sales).

 

[Thekiwi]

According to the most recent Jeffries analyst report, a $1400 price target 1 year from now aligns with 3mil vehicles sold in 2025.

I would link the report, but on my phone so can't right now.

I was being vague with the number, but my point being that Shanghai producing an extra 10-20k cars this quarter doesn’t move the needle on long term expectations, whether thats a 3 million or 5 million unit assumption in 2025.

 

[BornToFly]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458176864669683713

 

[Thekiwi]

According to the most recent Jeffries analyst report, a $1400 price target 1 year from now aligns with 3mil vehicles sold in 2025.

I would link the report, but on my phone so can't right now.

It DOES matter for short term forecasting of this quarters and next years results, but whether you think that matters with the stock at this level is probably the debate. I don‘t have anything against anyone that thinks it does make a big difference and should cause a big move up in the stock price, but I would only point out that if anyone thinks Shanghai producing an extra 5k in a month warrants a big jump in share price, then they therefore argue that the opposite should also be true: if Shanghai didnt meet production estimates in a particular month then it deserves a big drop in share price. Myself I don’t think that is true at all as I think the long term production goals being met are what matter, not short term movements.

 

[22522]

Does anyone here know if a jury trial is required for the $700,000 per occurrence OHSA awards?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Stock was 1200,
Elon sells 10% to wolves so -120
New price, 1080.
(just go with it...)

 

[henchman24]

I’m not sure Shanghai producing a few thousand more units a month than expected is particularly market moving news with the market cap over $1 Trillion. The current market cap assumes Tesla will be making 5 million+ vehicles annually at very high profit margins within a few years.

I wouldn't say 5+m is needed for this valuation. Simply how fast Tesla is growing combined with the earnings is pretty easy to come up with a valuation at or above the current share price. 125x next year's EPS is a common valuation number for a company in the growth pattern Tesla is in (and Tesla has hovered between 110 and 135 most of the year on consensus estimates... latter part of the year has been closer to 110). The street has 8.50 as the EPS consensus, which at a 125x, is 1062.50. If you are more bullish on earnings, which I'd say is reasonable given what we have seen in 2021... say the higher side of the street at 10.50... you have 1312.50. Between those numbers is on the bullish side, but possible to justify a valuation.

 

[Dutchie]

Oh well, no one can deny the last last couple of weeks were exciting. I had my worst day in the market today. But just as I did not eat more last week when my portfolio was up every day, I won’t be eating less tonight. For me they are just numbers on a screen right now.

 

[JusRelax]

It DOES matter for short term forecasting of this quarters and next years results, but whether you think that matters with the stock at this level is probably the debate. I don‘t have anything against anyone that thinks it does make a big difference and should cause a big move up in the stock price, but I would only point out that if anyone thinks Shanghai producing an extra 5k in a month warrants a big jump in share price, then they therefore argue that the opposite should also be true: if Shanghai didnt meet production estimates in a particular month then it deserves a big drop in share price. Myself I don’t think that is true at all as I think the long term production goals being met are what matter, not short term movements.

Rob Maurer goes over the significance of the reported Shanghai numbers in his video from last night. In my opinion, it is a significant factor to indicate 300k+ deliveries this quarter. This, combined with the news that parts are almost 100% locally sourced now as well, in my opinion is a sign of an incredible beat of analyst forecasts for q4, which would force analysts to increase their estimates once again after q4 earnings.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Did a bunch of buying of what I like to think are Elon shares today.

Some of my laddered by orders hit; but not all. In fact; one missed by only a few cents.

Also closed a DITM call, that was expiring in Jan/22 and rolled it out to Sept 22; took the rest of the gains and bought more shares.

The “ I have enough core TSLA shares “ target keeps moving up for me. Anyone else afflicted with this ?

20% off-the-high sales are nice.

Not advice.

 

[henchman24]

Darkpool sales of 16.8m today, is that correct?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Any upside production numbers from China true doesn't move the needle much in the moment. But it moves mountains in the future from the butterfly effect, and the fact that they're exceeding is even better. That extra capacity carries through every month and compounds long term. If anything, they're sandbagging in case of a real parts shortage.

I haven't listened to Rob's podcast yet today, good idea...

 

[Iain]

Elon let the World know he was selling. Will he tell us he’s done selling

 

[Wicket]

I suppose Elon has discovered finally how to accomplish what the 'stock seems high to me I dunna honestly' tweets were unable to do.

My goal on a stock like this where I'm certain of 4000+ is to simply have more equity the second time it passes X than the first. Looks like I will have nominally succeeded but selling into a FOMO run is pretty tough and I could have done more. Buying every 25 points down from here (or if sufficient time passes).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Curve ball (total devil's advocate here), but what if he doesn't sell and it's a bear trap to expose unethical or illegal trading? Recall the 420 tweet but never did go private - for reasons beyond me but likely to protect the shareholders or mission or both. So what if a similar event just happened, he didn't sell yet, and reexamines to find that it's not advised. In other words, wall street did something unexpected, he's reconsidering? Or a bear trap which I'd rather believe. Or just nothing and it's done, who really knows. This story is not over, something tells me. It's quite the movie segment in fact.