Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jeewee3000]

I have set-up the following thread:
Tesla Material Event & TSLA Market Impacting Event Ticker

Note, this new alternative dumping ground thread has 3 question unanswered. If we don't go for one of these solutions we can't really complain about excessive posts on the main thread going forwards.

Neroden has a good following in the politics thread.
The horde (of which I am one) will follow FC. If FC chooses to use the other threads more, the horde will follow. I predict no change which I am not unhappy with. Happy in a sewer me...

Whilst I am supportive of a thread that would be concise and lists JUST the news/facts without our comments - with the goal of checking TMC for 1 minute to find out why the stock is rallying or tanking on any given day - the proposed methods will probably not work out.

We had the same discussion at the end of 2017, so that we made two seperate threads: one for general comments amongst us investing TMC members and one for Market Action.

Since that didn't work [i.e. the supposed concise Market Action thread was used as a general thread with 95% off topic comments] we 'gave up' and created one general market action thread for this year.

Now you are basically suggesting to split it up into THREE threads: OT dumping ground (which is the goal of the 2019 general market action thread), the general market action thread and a concise market action thread.

Don't get me wrong @Buckminster , I support your intentions, but I cannot see how the divide between three threads will be respected by the general TMC member when even two threads failed to work out.

I have similar feelings about the general thread (= market action basically) being too large too follow. It is too hard to find a specific reason for a certain stock movement when you don't follow it every hour of the day. However, my personal solution has evolved into:

- use the general thread for general, like everybody else seems to do;
- read up on @Papafox daily charts section every morning to see what happened to the stock yesterday (Big thank you, btw)

That's why I generally dissaprove of people starting discussions in the daily charts thread. It should be nothing but Papafox, except when intelligent comments or corrections are made. Mostly the replies lack said standard.

If we want to strive for a Market Action News thread (without our comments on the facts), I think the best approach given the current status of the TMC message board is to use the Articles re Tesla thread and leave the "fact or fiction" out of it. That part is mainly discussed in the general market action thread anyway.

My 2 cents.

 

[Navin]

Fantastic, thank you very much!

Here's a tabulated version, sorted by revenue value (from bearish to bullish), and left off the irrelevant .1 million digits:

Evercore

UBS

JMP

Goldman Sachs

Undisclosed

Wolfe Research

BofAML

Deutsche

Roth

JPMorgan

Undisclosed

Undisclosed

Thomson First Call Consensus

Elazar Advisors

Macquiarie

RBC

Wedbush

Undisclosed

Piper

Oppenheimer

Needham

Canaccord

[TD2] $6,805m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,820m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,848m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,851m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,895m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,899m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,926m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,976m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,985m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,020m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,032m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,067m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,082m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,084m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,089m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,139m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,188m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,192m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,226m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,440m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,523m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,715m [/TD2]

Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:

• There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
  • "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
  • "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
  • "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
• Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...

Everyone who owns $TSLA stock, options or bonds and agrees that this is market manipulation which is harming investors, please file a SEC Investor Complaint:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

A sample complaint could be something like:

Suspected illegal market manipulation: two of the most bearish $TSLA analysts (Canaccord and Needham) are apparently gaming the 'Thomson First Call consensus' analyst estimates to manufacture an artificial 'miss' on $TSLA by entering artificially high Q4'2018 revenue estimates 6-8% higher than the consensus, which estimates are not consistent with their publicly bearish views of the company. Their apparent intent is to profit from any adverse price reaction, should Tesla "miss" the artificially heightened revenue consensus.

Similar suspected illegal price and market manipulation distortion of the "FactSet" consensus was performed with the January 2 Tesla (TSLA) "Delivery Report", which created a price drop from a $332 closing price on December 31 to below $300 on January 2 - a more than 10% intraday drop. Bearish analysts entered unrealistically high production estimates for Tesla, which created an artificial "consensus miss" that adversely affected investor sentiment and caused a big drop in the $TSLA price - from which short sellers profited.

As a $TSLA investor I was significantly harmed by their action.

It's a classic 'short and distort' tactic that appears to be illegal according to the Securities Act of 1933, also known as the "Truth In Securities Act".
​

I believe the SEC is obligated to at minimum read every complaint made by an investor. Even if they don't act on it, it creates a track record that later SEC administrations can use to form new policy, restrictions on short sellers, more effective regulation of Wall Street analysts, etc.

So it's helpful to file complaints even if nothing happens straight away - the squeaky wheel gets the grease, eventually.

Non-U.S. investors can file complaints as well.

(Paging @ZachShahan and @Papafox.)

Would be great to get more eyes on this post. Can someone reach out to Bonnie, Tesla IR and others in media that they have a connect with. This is about as close to a smoking gun we can find and there should be lots of visibility here on this nonsense so we can try to put an end to it.

 

[PaulRocket]

New video from the Gigafactory:
Teslas Gigafactory: So sieht es im Inneren aus

-24/7 operation
-3,000 Panasonic employees, 7,000 Tesla employees and 2,000 supplier employees
-solar roof should be finished by fall and cover 90% of the energy need

Also here are some new pictures:
Tesla Gigafactory: Bilder aus der Batterie-Fabrik

There is an article which could contain new information but unfortunately you need premium access. So if anyone from Germany has a premium account, pls share

 

[avoigt]

Bull/bear tug of wear continues into Tesla's Q1, says Wedbush Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $440 price target on Tesla, telling investors in a research note that the company has started to turn the corner on Model 3 production, demand looks "healthy" into 2019 and beyond, and says the financial model is poised to generate improved profitability/cash flow, putting the risk of a capital raise in the background for now. However, Ives cautions that there is no room for major production errors or another distraction from CEO Elon Musk and others. While Tesla remains a "rollercoaster ride," Ives believes European deliveries hitting the ground in Q1 and a steady production ramp out of Fremont remain key variables for the bulls/bears to debate heading into a "pivotal" earnings report and guidance.

Read more at:
Bull/bear tug of wear continues into Tesla's Q1, says Wedbush TSLA - The Fly

 

[Todd Burch]

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

He might have a point

The real question someone should ask Spiegel is: How would Elon have seen Tesla's January sales figures?!?

We already know that moron doesn't know the difference between a crane and a pile driver. Seems he can't tell time either.

 

[AlMc]

Would be great to get more eyes on this post. Can someone reach out to Bonnie, Tesla IR and others in media that they have a connect with. This is about as close to a smoking gun we can find and there should be lots of visibility here on this nonsense so we can try to put an end to it.

....done

 

[gora321]

The real question someone should ask Spiegel is: How would Elon have seen Tesla's January sales figures?!?

We already know that moron doesn't know the difference between a crane and a pile driver. Seems he can't tell time either.

I would't be surprised about his question if Spiegel was a doctor of medicine.
It is like a doctor of medicine would give advice abort investments.
What is he? A doctor of medicine or...

 

[ZsoZso]

Whilst I am supportive of a thread that would be concise and lists JUST the news/facts without our comments - with the goal of checking TMC for 1 minute to find out why the stock is rallying or tanking on any given day - the proposed methods will probably not work out.

We had the same discussion at the end of 2017, so that we made two seperate threads: one for general comments amongst us investing TMC members and one for Market Action.

Since that didn't work [i.e. the supposed concise Market Action thread was used as a general thread with 95% off topic comments] we 'gave up' and created one general market action thread for this year.

Now you are basically suggesting to split it up into THREE threads: OT dumping ground (which is the goal of the 2019 general market action thread), the general market action thread and a concise market action thread.

Don't get me wrong @Buckminster , I support your intentions, but I cannot see how the divide between three threads will be respected by the general TMC member when even two threads failed to work out.

I have similar feelings about the general thread (= market action basically) being too large too follow. It is too hard to find a specific reason for a certain stock movement when you don't follow it every hour of the day. However, my personal solution has evolved into:

- use the general thread for general, like everybody else seems to do;
- read up on @Papafox daily charts section every morning to see what happened to the stock yesterday (Big thank you, btw)

That's why I generally dissaprove of people starting discussions in the daily charts thread. It should be nothing but Papafox, except when intelligent comments or corrections are made. Mostly the replies lack said standard.

If we want to strive for a Market Action News thread (without our comments on the facts), I think the best approach given the current status of the TMC message board is to use the Articles re Tesla thread and leave the "fact or fiction" out of it. That part is mainly discussed in the general market action thread anyway.

My 2 cents.

I would suggest another solution:
Setup a separate "market moving news only" thread, and make that such that only mod-approved posts will appear. I know there is a functionality of the board where a certain poster's posting only appears after moderator approval. I am guessing the same could be applied to a thread too.

Sure there are some disadvantages:
1. Posts will require moderator approval, so more burden on them
2. It takes longer for news to appear.

 

[winfield100]

I would suggest another solution:
Setup a separate "market moving news only" thread, and make that such that only mod-approved posts will ppear. I know there is a functionality of the board where a certain poster's posting only appears after moderator approval. I am guessing the same could be applied to a thread too.

Sure there are some disadvantages:
1. Posts will require moderator approval, so more burden on them
2. It takes longer for news to appear.

@ZsoZso
hurray
Zsozso is volunteering to be a moderator!!
3 cheers
Yahoo!

 

[gora321]

Premarket looks like yesterday

 

[Fact Checking]

Just a quick macro heads-up:

• Latest U.S. inflation data released half an hour ago was 'meets consensus' - i.e. inflation not speeding up. This is bullish in terms of the Fed not raising rates this year.
• There's further Brexit confusion: May apparently wants Brexit but realizes that doing it on March 29 wouldn't be overly smart. The later the Brexit the more bullish. Edit: the EUR just did a big move down a minute ago which I suspect could be bad Brexit news? (Edit: good Brexit news as the pound rose.)
  
• $TSLA is showing some pre-market trading weakness - unclear what the trigger was. If it's the "Tesla killer" EV Cadillac announcement then the reality is that an EV Cadillac will primarily compete against other ICE cars, not against other EVs...

Futures have not recovered from overnight pessimism yet though.

This was a pretty good week so far, so a bit of profit taking wouldn't be surprising - on the other hand eventually there's going to be "the sky isn't falling after all and this was the bottom of the market - let's catch the bus!!!" moment as well.

 

[gora321]

One shoot only? I was expecting whole new turnaround plan affecting whole company.
Cadillac to introduce EV, report says

 

[skybluecgreen]

I'm back with the detailed First Call TSLA Q4 revenue estimates:

(In $ millions)
BofAML 6,926.6
Canaccord 7,715.0
Deutsche 6,976.1
Elazar Advisors 7,084.2
Evercore 6,805.5
Goldman Sachs 6,851.1
JMP 6,848.7
JPMorgan 7,020.0
Macquiarie 7,089.9
Needham 7,523.4
Oppenheimer 7,440.8
Piper 7,226.1
RBC 7,139.3
Roth 6,985.0
UBS 6,820.2
Undisclosed 6,895.0
Undisclosed 7,192.0
Undisclosed 7,032.0
Undisclosed 7,067.2
Wedbush 7,188.5
Wolfe Research 6,899.0

Consensus 7,082.2
Maximum 7,715.0
Minimum 6,805.5

Excluded
Undisclosed 6,749.0

How do these revenue numbers along with the posted earnings estimates compare to our member's estimates? @ReflexFunds ?

 

[Tslynk67]

Fantastic, thank you very much!

Here's a tabulated version, sorted by revenue value (from bearish to bullish), and left off the irrelevant .1 million digits:

Evercore

UBS

JMP

Goldman Sachs

Undisclosed

Wolfe Research

BofAML

Deutsche

Roth

JPMorgan

Undisclosed

Undisclosed

Thomson First Call Consensus

Elazar Advisors

Macquiarie

RBC

Wedbush

Undisclosed

Piper

Oppenheimer

Needham

Canaccord

[TD2] $6,805m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,820m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,848m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,851m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,895m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,899m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,926m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,976m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,985m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,020m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,032m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,067m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,082m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,084m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,089m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,139m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,188m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,192m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,226m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,440m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,523m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,715m [/TD2]

Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:

• There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
  • "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
  • "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
  • "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
• Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...

Everyone who owns $TSLA stock, options or bonds and agrees that this is market manipulation which is harming investors, please file a SEC Investor Complaint:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

A sample complaint could be something like:

Suspected illegal market manipulation: two of the most bearish $TSLA analysts (Canaccord and Needham) are apparently gaming the 'Thomson First Call consensus' analyst estimates to manufacture an artificial 'miss' on $TSLA by entering artificially high Q4'2018 revenue estimates 6-8% higher than the consensus, which estimates are not consistent with their publicly bearish views of the company. Their apparent intent is to profit from any adverse price reaction, should Tesla "miss" the artificially heightened revenue consensus.

Similar suspected illegal price and market manipulation distortion of the "FactSet" consensus was performed with the January 2 Tesla (TSLA) "Delivery Report", which created a price drop from a $332 closing price on December 31 to below $300 on January 2 - a more than 10% intraday drop. Bearish analysts entered unrealistically high production estimates for Tesla, which created an artificial "consensus miss" that adversely affected investor sentiment and caused a big drop in the $TSLA price - from which short sellers profited.

As a $TSLA investor I was significantly harmed by their action.

It's a classic 'short and distort' tactic that appears to be illegal according to the Securities Act of 1933, also known as the "Truth In Securities Act".
​

I believe the SEC is obligated to at minimum read every complaint made by an investor. Even if they don't act on it, it creates a track record that later SEC administrations can use to form new policy, restrictions on short sellers, more effective regulation of Wall Street analysts, etc.

So it's helpful to file complaints even if nothing happens straight away - the squeaky wheel gets the grease, eventually.

Non-U.S. investors can file complaints as well.

(Paging @ZachShahan and @Papafox.)

Thanks FC, I registered a complaint.

 

[Krugerrand]

To solve the problem of this thread getting OT all too often, I suggest we use the existing other threads more. A staged Karen Vs neroden Vs FC fight to the death argument would please the punters. I suggest the 3 of them get over to this thread (updated by myself with Remster32's kind updates). Suggested topic for argument:
Will the Q4 GAAP EPS beat the non-GAAP consensus from First Call of 2.25? Prof to referee.

If that is seen as too ill-considered, I have set up another thread for all OT discussion. It won't get used - but at least I can sleep at night:
OT dumping ground (no cats please - they are sacred creatures)

So, just where is the sacred thread then?

 

[nursebee]

Peanut gallery - Wikipedia

 

[ZachF]

OT

There's a SpaceX launch this morning

 

[Intl Professor]

Whilst I am supportive of a thread that would be concise and lists JUST the news/facts without our comments - with the goal of checking TMC for 1 minute to find out why the stock is rallying or tanking on any given day - the proposed methods will probably not work out.

We had the same discussion at the end of 2017, so that we made two seperate threads: one for general comments amongst us investing TMC members and one for Market Action.

Since that didn't work [i.e. the supposed concise Market Action thread was used as a general thread with 95% off topic comments] we 'gave up' and created one general market action thread for this year.

Now you are basically suggesting to split it up into THREE threads: OT dumping ground (which is the goal of the 2019 general market action thread), the general market action thread and a concise market action thread.

Don't get me wrong @Buckminster , I support your intentions, but I cannot see how the divide between three threads will be respected by the general TMC member when even two threads failed to work out.

I have similar feelings about the general thread (= market action basically) being too large too follow. It is too hard to find a specific reason for a certain stock movement when you don't follow it every hour of the day. However, my personal solution has evolved into:

- use the general thread for general, like everybody else seems to do;
- read up on @Papafox daily charts section every morning to see what happened to the stock yesterday (Big thank you, btw)

That's why I generally dissaprove of people starting discussions in the daily charts thread. It should be nothing but Papafox, except when intelligent comments or corrections are made. Mostly the replies lack said standard.

If we want to strive for a Market Action News thread (without our comments on the facts), I think the best approach given the current status of the TMC message board is to use the Articles re Tesla thread and leave the "fact or fiction" out of it. That part is mainly discussed in the general market action thread anyway.

My 2 cents.

Not to disagree, but I would like a much more sophisticated search engine which would be easier with what I suggested a few years ago, a mandatory topic requirement. (Hard for me since I usually have three topics which emerge randomly as I write. But maybe you've noticed.)

 

[ZachF]

 

[Unpilot]

This thread is what I read almost every day. I say beware of unintended consequences. Yes it might weed out some posters who have a random thought or two..or three. However some "noise" is essential in all human interaction.

In other words don't let perfect be the enemy of good enough.