Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[geneclean55]

Elon’s on the way to Detroit. Who wants to start the rumor mill? Karen?
View attachment 389084

GM electric investment announcement
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

This part I got. I thought there were posts on here indicating free lifetime supercharging for anyone currently driving a car with free SC when they upgrade.

I think that is just a rumor at this point from here https://electrek.co/2019/03/21/tesla-free-supercharging-end-quarter-incentive/
I haven’t been offered anything to upgrade.

 

[azaz]

GM electric investment announcement
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Holy *sugar* this could be massive. What else could Elon really be goijg to Detroit for?

 

[MP3Mike]

This makes me nauseous thinking this guy can get a third free roadster.

At least Elon put that to bed, no third roadster for Freddie...

Replying to @JDkndt @krp5 @vincent13031925
If someone has already won a Roadster from a prior program, they’re only eligible to win the signed Performance Y

 

[oneday]

Don't quite your day job to be a psychic.
I spent at least 200 hrs of research about everything Tesla/EM before my first buy of TSLA.
I've only taken 8 different position in the last 6-7 years of investing.

Just want to say I appreciate hearing your thoughts and glad you share them. Obviously most of us on this forum are Tesla biased. Anytime anyone hears something that goes against that bias, they react, often negatively. I’m sure you understand that. I’ve been invested in TSLA a similar amount of time as you. It certainly is frustrating that every companies shares I sold to buy TSLA has done better than my TSLA investment. I don’t blame that on Elon, but can understand why anyone would.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Hey @neroden, I've been in software 25 years, leading up to 50 people, running systems with millions of lines of code, and leading 2nd in the world domain registrar.
And from this experience, I'll tell you, you are judging them too harshly.
I think QA is actually doing bang-up job job considering complexities (knock-knock). That job would keep me up at night.

I do like the idea being floated to outsource the bug fix prioritisation list to users.

As you would know, a big problem with bug lists and feature requests is duplication. The list grows faster than it shrinks - many users reporting, limited developers fixing. And the last thing you have resources for is to read the list looking for duplicates. At least with a user prioritised list, it would be the most appreciated stuff being worked on. It's like outsourcing the least fun job, for zero cost.

 

[Singuy]

Don't quite your day job to be a psychic.
I spent at least 200 hrs of research about everything Tesla/EM before my first buy of TSLA.
I've only taken 8 different position in the last 6-7 years of investing.

Okay so Elon's erratic tweets happened in 2018 that I guess you can say did the most damage, what about the other 3 years the sp has gone no where?

 

[carterm2]

I love how someone randomly speculates that there will be a refresh coming soon based on the flimsiest of information, and people are already making assumptions on what the theoretical refresh will entail and asking if they can upgrade.

....

Sadly, this was an attempt at irony... btw... Overnight, P100D MS dropped in value an amount equal to the cost of a M3, so no, I don't want to pay more ... I just can't drive without speeding now, I love the car, but hate the dramatic depreciation and the yellow orange band around the LCD.

Its funny how illogical it is to love Tesla and how bad an investment it has been for me. I plan on driving the car for ten years though, so I would expect things to even out fo me in the long run. I just hope I can outlive the next car I buy.

 

[Car In Ray]

Holy *sugar* this could be massive. What else could Elon really be goijg to Detroit for?

Nothing. There's nothing else there.

 

[tinm]

Can any one tell me why there isnt a place to go where we can suggest ideas for Tesla to use and have a system where you can upvote other peoples ideas that you like, and the engineers at tesla check the site to see the most up voted ones and decide whether they are good ideas. I have heaps of ideas how tesla could improve things and yet no where to suggest them.

Theory: lawyers advise companies not to do this. Why? Suppose an idea gets submitted by person X. Engineers inside company love it. CEO greenlights it. Company builds and ships it as new feature in product. Sales explode. Stock soars. Company value quadruples. Fast forward. Person X who feels left out. Posts original idea and tells whole story on social media. Goes viral. Public outcry. Lawyers smell money, get X to sue for billions. Company put in bind. Etc, etc, etc.

Apple used to and may still, discourage people from submitting ideas. Some companies I seem to recall have IP policies that anything submitted to them from customers becomes company property.

 

[oneday]

Nothing. There's nothing else there.

Not sure if it’s still the case but I think Tesla owns a tooling company in Michigan. Other possible ideas, perhaps Musk might make a deal on one of GM’s plants they’re shutting down. A joint partnership would be absolutely wonderful though.

 

[MartinAustin]

Cost saving measures

Eliminating Stores, Eliminating Free Supercharging, Eliminating Referral Program, Eliminating Commissions/Bonuses

NVM

Partly or Mostly rolled back.

Sadly, they laid off a bunch of U.S. Delivery employees in January, due to the sales focus on Europe, but despite the recent email to out focus on deliveries, I doubt they have been able to re-hire those folks (and perhaps they didn't try)

 

[Do It]

FSD, the promised of cross country autonomous drive and 5k/week M3 production that's not 6 months late was baked into a 380 dollar sp 2.5 years ago.

FSD would be at least 100B by itself so if that were "baked in" the SP would have been at least 600 instead of 380. As for achieving 5k/w 6 month late, you think that makes Tesla 20B less valuable?

 

[uselesslogin]

Not sure if it’s still the case but I think Tesla owns a tooling company in Michigan. Other possible ideas, perhaps Musk might make a deal on one of GM’s plants they’re shutting down. A joint partnership would be absolutely wonderful though.

That is in Grand Rapids though and didn't someone post he is landing in Flint? Of course Flint had the water crisis he gave money for but also close to Orion.

 

[neroden]

Hey @neroden, I've been in software 25 years, leading up to 50 people, running systems with millions of lines of code, and leading 2nd in the world domain registrar.
And from this experience, I'll tell you, you are judging them too harshly.
I think QA is actually doing bang-up job job considering complexities (knock-knock). That job would keep me up at night.

I've done better in an all-volunteer project with far more users. I am not judging them too harshly. You are wrong.

 

[neroden]

Absolutely, especially consider the snafu Apple had, like logging into Mac OS using root with no password, issuing fix that broke something else, face time fiasco, let alone the hot mess called Siri...

Maybe I have higher standards because I worked on free software, rather thsn the half-baked crap which passes for commercial software since 1990... :shrug:

Still, if you are a paying company and volunteers are making you look bad, you are doing a crummy job IMO.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Thanks for your thoughtful post. I do fully understand your position.

And yet, I'll have to respectfully disagree.

The world you're painting is the world that has much smaller pool of TSLA investors. It sounds like right fit would be only: sophisticated, informed investor, willing to sit patiently for years without rewards, impervious to wild valuation swings. That sounds like a private company and VC. Perhaps it should have been a private company. But, it's not. For example, I am relatively patient person, but my patience has worn thin, and I've been at this price level 4 years ago, while everything else I sold to invest in TSLA is between 3x and 7x since. I've done ok trading around position, but still, it's been very testing 4 years.

The crux of my argument though, is that limiting pool of investors of TSLA cannot be good for Tesla and the world, as SP would (and is) suffering, and strong SP is a currency that can be used in a myriad of useful ways; including raising capital or buying other companies to speed up transition of the world to the sustainable energy/transportation.

And you can't ever stop small, unsophisticated investors from buying TSLA, as long as it's a public company. And these investors need to be protected too, as they're buying into the notion, standards and expectations of the public company.

It's easy to understand Tesla strengths when you fall in love with their cars. And it takes much longer to discover true nature of volatility that is Tesla specific. Tesla and EM should do nothing that hurts these investors, especially if it's easily addressable. I mean, seriously, is it that hard to have every Tesla related twit reviewed? Or to get few sessions with a coach that will explain no-go subjects and position? Just to prevent self-inflicted wounds. Other than Musk's ego, what else would be damaged? And if he understood panic and mindset of my friend that bought at $375, I'm quite sure he'd do it out of his own volition.

I feel our role should be to explain this to him, and not to defend him.

So as long as Tesla is public company, it needs to make an effort of protecting all investors, sophisticated or not.
P.S. I will be very disappointed with any answer along the line 'it's their own fault' re unsophisticated investors

I'll keep it brief, so it doesn't become a long back/forth. I lien towards Warren Buffet's approach rather than an activist approach. Vote with your wallet. Sell the shares if you don't like his approach. Or reduce your position size so that it's less risky. Lock those shares away, and look at it after 5/10 years. As far as saving the world, Musk/Tesla already started the revolution. God forbid that Tesla fails, but even so, the transition to EVs has begun.

 

[neroden]

Holy *sugar* this could be massive. What else could Elon really be goijg to Detroit for?

Flint water crisis, Tesla Tool & Die,...

 

[Singuy]

FSD would be at least 100B by itself so if that were "baked in" the SP would have been at least 600 instead of 380. As for achieving 5k/w 6 month late, you think that makes Tesla 20B less valuable?

You do realize that skepticism for this tech is also baked in. If 90% of the investors think it's BS and 10% think it's worth 100 billion, the price that's baked in is 10%..which is better than 0% when this is not promised.

And as for the 6 month late on the 5k production, this is just explaining this stock is a sine wave the last few years.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Holy *sugar* this could be massive. What else could Elon really be goijg to Detroit for?

Per this article, announcement is 10AM local time (30 mins after market open).