Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

New video from Munro on OEM competition:

this has quite disturbing thesis near the end.

 

[RobStark]

California Q3 Sept 21 YTD Registrations

Tesla passes Nissan!!!

Brand............CA 2021 YTD.............................. % Share
Toyota........275,193 ...........,..........................18.5
Honda........165,633.........................................11.2
Ford...........113,066..........................................7.6
Chevrolet...104,123..........................................7.0
Tesla.........82,040..............................................5.5
Nissan........78,030..........................................5.3
KIA.............61,321............................................4.1
Hyundai......57,254...........................................3.9
Merc Benz..57,074..........................................3.8
Subaru......54,465............................................3.7
BMW..........50,207............................................3.4
Lexus..........45,308..........................................3.1
Jeep............43,710..........................................2.9
RAM.............38,696.........................................2.6
Mazda..........38,187.........................................2.6
Volkswagen..35,152........................................2.4
Audi..............31,442.........................................2.1
GMC.............27,339..........................................1.8
Dodge..........19,115.........................................1.3
Acura ...........14,459.........................................1.0
Porsche........13,595...........................................0.9
Land Rover ..13,037.........................................0.9
Volvo.............11,674..........................................0.8
Chrysler........8,543..........................................0.6
Cadillac.........8,528..........................................0.6
Infiniti............6.478..........................................0.4
Buick.............5,543..........................................0.4
Mitsubishi.....5,057..........................................0.3
Mini...............4,381.........................................0.3
Lincoln..........3,774..........................................0.3
Genesis.........3,738.........................................0.3
Alfa Romeo....2,499........................................0.2
Jaguar...........2,454.........................................0.2
FIAT................124...........................................0
Other..............2,655.........................................0.2


Total.........................1,484,862 ..................................100

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-21.pdf

 

[Ogre]

Elon has a plan... he will split into 10,000 car companies each delivering 100 EVs each

Lets be honest, doesn‘t the Cybertruck deserve it’s own company?

 

[Ogre]

California Q3 Sept 21 YTD Registrations

Tesla passes Nissan!!!

Brand............CA 2021 YTD.............................. % Share
Toyota........275,193 ...........,..........................18.5
Honda........165,633.........................................11.2
Ford...........113,066..........................................7.6
Chevrolet...104,123..........................................7.0
Tesla.........82,040..............................................5.5
Nissan........78,030..........................................5.3
KIA.............61,321............................................4.1
Hyundai......57,254...........................................3.9
Merc Benz..57,074..........................................3.8
Subaru......54,465............................................3.7
BMW..........50,207............................................3.4
Lexus..........45,308..........................................3.1
Jeep............43,710..........................................2.9
RAM.............38,696.........................................2.6
Mazda..........38,187.........................................2.6
Volkswagen..35,152........................................2.4
Audi..............31,442.........................................2.1
GMC.............27,339..........................................1.8
Dodge..........19,115.........................................1.3
Acura ...........14,459.........................................1.0
Porsche........13,595...........................................0.9
Land Rover ..13,037.........................................0.9
Volvo.............11,674..........................................0.8
Chrysler........8,543..........................................0.6
Cadillac.........8,528..........................................0.6
Infiniti............6.478..........................................0.4
Buick.............5,543..........................................0.4
Mitsubishi.....5,057..........................................0.3
Mini...............4,381.........................................0.3
Lincoln..........3,774..........................................0.3
Genesis.........3,738.........................................0.3
Alfa Romeo....2,499........................................0.2
Jaguar...........2,454.........................................0.2
FIAT................124...........................................0
Other..............2,655.........................................0.2


Total.........................1,484,862 ..................................100

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-21.pdf

Wow… based on that, Tesla is going to pass Ford, Chevy, and maybe Honda all next year.

Maybe even all of GMs sub brands combined. Looks like Ford and it’s sub brands as well. California only, but still crazy.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

California Sept YTD Market Share.

Model 3 40.8 segment market share

Model Y 40.9 segment market share

Model S is low and Model X is not on the board due slow refresh rampup.

Tesla's will eat into non-luxury segments. That blew my mind and made me very hopeful for 2022:
RAV4 48k
Model Y 42k - despite much higher price

This makes Model Y very mainstream car (not just an EV)

 

[Ogre]

California Sept YTD Market Share.

Model 3 40.8 segment market share

Model Y 40.9 segment market share

Model S is low and Model X is not on the board due slow refresh rampup.

The Accord is the best selling vehicle on that chart?

The Model Y is only 9,000 cars behind that. They are easily going to be the best selling vehicle in California. Now for the rest of the country.

 

[CLK350]

Nice, but damb that’s about 2x what the P car folks charge for such an upgrade - not including wheel alterations.

Shhhh.. that's called reverse sliding scale ; D

 

[MXWing]

Tesla Model S Plaid Carbon Ceramic Brake Kit added to online shop

Tesla has announced a Carbon Ceramic Brake Kit for the Model S Plaid, making it the most expensive item in the Shop, and by a wide margin.

driveteslacanada.ca

View attachment 736938




That'll make a nice Christmas Summer Stock(ing) stuffer... for MARGINS!

Cheers!

Is there some hidden reason to offer something like this with a likely low take rate?

That Tesla will run around settings records using these and say hey it’s stock? You can order it from our website.

 

[CLK350]

He’s Steering Volkswagen, With His Eyes on Beating Tesla

Herbert Diess, the chief executive, seeks to cast VW as a dynamic, modern company, but his style risks the ire of its powerful works council.

www.nytimes.com

Good article if you can get through the paywall. Tesla is the benchmark! What Tesla does in 2 years takes VW 5 years.

Or use the Firefox add-on "Bypass Firewall" to read the NYTimes, WSJ etc the old fashioned way (works great).

Key extract: " ...

“One thing that Diess does that is positive, he keeps repeating — even when no one in Wolfsburg wants to hear it — that Tesla is the benchmark,” said Stefan Bratzel, director of the Center of Automotive Management in Bergisch Gladbach, Germany. “He is using Tesla to create pressure within the company for a necessary transformation.”

But Mr. Bratzel cautioned that Mr. Diess needed the support of the company’s workers, whose representatives hold half the seats on the 20-person supervisory board, which hires and fires executives and sets strategy. Another two members, the representatives from the German state of Lower Saxony, which owns 20 percent of the company, tend to vote with the workers. "

The dilemma is that in order to have a chance to survive, VW has (according to Diess, and .. uh logic) use less workers and more automation to produce cars, which means reduce employment. But parts of VW (workers council) have a say about management practices, and wants to keep workers employed.

Leaving this at that. Keeping the status quo, even if self defeating sooner or later (like unhinged carbon consumption, actually a lot of consumption) looks like the easy no answer to the elephant in the room type question.

 

[RobStark]

Wow… based on that, Tesla is going to pass Ford, Chevy, and maybe Honda all next year.

Maybe even all of GMs sub brands combined. Looks like Ford and it’s sub brands as well. California only, but still crazy.

My guess is chip and other shortages ease up and legacy OEMs get somewhat back to normal by the middle of next year.

Tesla, small and nimble, has been the least impacted by shortages.

My guess is it will take Cybertruck in 2023 to pass Ford and Chevy.

The size of the California Auto Market is between Italy and France.

 

[Pezpunk]

Is there some hidden reason to offer something like this with a likely low take rate?

That Tesla will run around settings records using these and say hey it’s stock? You can order it from our website.

Well if they offer it as an option, they can go back to the Ring and set a new, significantly faster record. Watching the footage of their official run, the driver was really noticeably babying the brakes into the corners and leaving a lot of time on the table, no doubt in an effort to make them last the full lap.

 

[Discoducky]

California Q3 Sept 21 YTD Registrations

Tesla passes Nissan!!!

Brand............CA 2021 YTD.............................. % Share
Toyota........275,193 ...........,..........................18.5
Honda........165,633.........................................11.2
Ford...........113,066..........................................7.6
Chevrolet...104,123..........................................7.0
Tesla.........82,040..............................................5.5
Nissan........78,030..........................................5.3
KIA.............61,321............................................4.1
Hyundai......57,254...........................................3.9
Merc Benz..57,074..........................................3.8
Subaru......54,465............................................3.7
BMW..........50,207............................................3.4
Lexus..........45,308..........................................3.1
Jeep............43,710..........................................2.9
RAM.............38,696.........................................2.6
Mazda..........38,187.........................................2.6
Volkswagen..35,152........................................2.4
Audi..............31,442.........................................2.1
GMC.............27,339..........................................1.8
Dodge..........19,115.........................................1.3
Acura ...........14,459.........................................1.0
Porsche........13,595...........................................0.9
Land Rover ..13,037.........................................0.9
Volvo.............11,674..........................................0.8
Chrysler........8,543..........................................0.6
Cadillac.........8,528..........................................0.6
Infiniti............6.478..........................................0.4
Buick.............5,543..........................................0.4
Mitsubishi.....5,057..........................................0.3
Mini...............4,381.........................................0.3
Lincoln..........3,774..........................................0.3
Genesis.........3,738.........................................0.3
Alfa Romeo....2,499........................................0.2
Jaguar...........2,454.........................................0.2
FIAT................124...........................................0
Other..............2,655.........................................0.2


Total.........................1,484,862 ..................................100

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-21.pdf

I'll go on record and say Tesla holds the top spot this time next year.

Why? Fremont will be cranking out for California exclusively. Wonderful domination

 

[Highway2Heel]

After leaving consulting and moving back to forestry (best decision ever) I no longer have inside knowledge of Ford's strategy. In 2007 I was fairly impressed with the organization recognition of risk and the decisions they were already making to stay out of bankruptcy.

In a similar vein I was less than impressed by Chrysler and GM in 2007. Fast forward to today and GM's EV strategy is the sort of thing of wonder for a harvard business case on strategy and operational failure- it is not just the Hummer. It is getting in bed with Trevor Milton, it is the pouch battery from LG, it is the Hummer, and on and on. Chrysler is clearly without hope, Dodge pickups are great. They will be dead products in 10 years. The minivans are great. Dead in 10 years.

In the USA this leaves Ford and I am cautiously optimistic that Ford will survive. The 10% stake in Rivian is worth $10 billion today. The Mustang, the very first EV for them, is a much better product than the second gen product from VW BMW or GM. The Ford Lightening looks to be a decent popular truck. I met a logging company owner with one on order and that to me says Ford could survive if they run hard.

Rivian will survive. Lucid looks interesting. More car companies in California than Midwest. Crazy but I think I see a pattern.

Then you guys bring up the lease risk issue and ...I confess I don't know quite what Ford risk is in this case. Do the incredible resale values right now bail them out? Will Ford ratchet back lease options with rising rates? Not sure.

The German Unions have only begun to sense demise. The middle industry in Germany relies heavily on the auto industry. What there? Germany is in the EU and the EU's member states aren't so happy about Germany crushing all the other automakers so they may not have much support to slow EU rules. Talk about uncertainty. Brilliant to put Tesla right in Berlin. Brilliant. Barcelona would have been nice but Berlin...knife in the gut.

Japan- nobody doing less with more and auto industry is so much more important to Japan than Germany. Ironically local consumption that kept the auto industry in excellent financial health for years may be what kills the Japanese auto industry. Talk about turmoil. If I was a long term short seller I'd find a way to short Japan inc...be about 10 years out in the future but holy cow.

All this gets back to @jbcarioca recent post on the need for an open and active discussion and on the risk on tunnel vision in an uncertain time. If tunnel vision were appropriate than there would be no need for this thread. The thread is important and provides value due to the enormous uncertainty.

Good post. I have a lot of knowledge of GM’s plans due to my current occupation. With that said, I wouldn’t drive any of their EVs (or any GM vehicle actually) if you gave it to me. I COULD be paid to take it so I could put the money into TSLA and then drive the car off a cliff for a fantastic YouTube video, but I digress…

 

[Carl Raymond]

Seems there are two ways to match Tesla on efficiency. One is a decade of constant tweaking and refinement using the finest engineering. The other is to cheat…

 

[RobStark]

I'll go on record and say Tesla holds the top spot this time next year.

Why? Fremont will be cranking out for California exclusively. Wonderful domination

Fremont will continue to make S and X for the entire world.

Fremont will continue to make 3 and Y for western North America even after Austin is fully ramped.

 

[Ohmster]

Their growth comes from adding breadth to their offerings. The Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple Music, Apple TV+… etc etc. They just keep cranking out additional products that work in their ecosystem and making their fundamental products better so people buy more of their base products (The recent improvements to the Mac come to mind).

Indeed.

For our household

Apple Ecosystem

• iCloud
• Airpods
• IPhones
• IPads
• HomePods
• MacBooks
• IMacs
• Apple TV’s
• Apple Watches
• Apple One

Tesla Ecosystem

• Model S Plaid
• Model Y Performance
• Model 3 (next year)
• CyberTruck (in two years?)
• Wall Chargers
• Insurance
• PV system (Solar)
• PowerWalls
• Tesla App

All are deeply imbedded into my family’s daily lives. The hardware side of Apple is decreasing (kids have all moved away from iPads and MacBooks). Wife does not use her Watch. But everyone is stuck on the iPhone and the backend cloud services (iCloud for Windows).

Tesla is growing.

I see an explosion of Tesla products that complement but not necessarily replace our Apple toys.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Sounds like there will be an extended push out of Shanghai...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1463694981139353609

 

[Discoducky]

Fremont will continue to make S and X for the entire world.

Fremont will continue to make 3 and Y for western North America even after Austin is fully ramped.

Yes Rob, I get it. But what you might not get is Elon wants to be at the top. You know, the whole mission thing. #TimeWillTell

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is there some hidden reason to offer something like this with a likely low take rate?

That Tesla will run around settings records using these and say hey it’s stock? You can order it from our website.

Once Giga Texas has it's onsite 4680 factory up to speed, then Kato Rd. production can be reallocated for Plaid S/X (and Roadster). You are going to want carbon ceramic brakes on your brand-new 4-dr Supercar.

Andrew from the Tesla Plaid Channel has already said he can't run more than about 5 back-to-back qtr-mile passes (150+ mph at the top end) w/o overheating the std brakes on his Aug 2021 Plaid S.

A Plaid S with a structural 4680 pack (in ~2023ish) will have ~120KWh (+20%) allowing engineers to fully uncork the tri-motor drivetrain (right now, electronically limited to about 1,020 hp). With the amp limits raised, that'll bump up power to around ~1,225 hp and increase trap speeds to over 160 mph for a Model S.

You're going to need bigger brakes.

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]