Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

UK banks upping their Green credentials - Royal Bank Of Scotland adding 170 22kw chargers at HQ, especially useful for company-leased vehicles (Company Cars)

Comments say that one place in Netherlands has 450 chargers. I can see whole works car parks being fitted out to trickle charge all day (22kw is more than a trickle though, even if many cars can only use 7-11 kw of it, next generation should charge faster on AC, many Zoe /Kangoo can do 43kw AC). This would demolish a large chunk of "live in apartment/flat/terrace with no off-road parking" arguments

Spoiler: RBOS Edinburgh

Credit Adrian Bond / Billy Spencer via Facebook group UKEVDrivers

 

[ZachF]

This will help buoy Q4 sales, imho. It's one thing to delay delivery when the bill has been signed into law; are people really going to bank on Congress to get this thing done at the risk of waiting months longer for delivery and/or facing more price increases?

2021 is essentially already over… it won’t effect Q4 at all. All of the cars that will be sold this year have already been built.

 

[Singuy]

I fully expect a rally after the fed. When people are anticipating bad news, sell the rumor buy the news happen. This is exactly the opposite of buy the rumor sell the news when good news are expected.

 

[Krugerrand]

My intent wasn't to chastise. Sorry, if you took it that way. Think about a family member of the deceased reading your post- I don't think they would find your assumption re litigation either comforting or flattering. A little empathy for their grief is in order.

First of all, you don’t even know if the person has family. The person’s identity hasn’t been released.

Secondly, regardless of what the family wants, a lawsuit is quite likely coming because that’s how our upside down world works. Somebody has to pay, and any ambulance chasing lawyer worth their salt will quickly determine how much money the shooter has or has not and that the big pay day comes from suing Tesla and quite possibly even the city.

Third, if there is family, they aren’t currently in any state of mind or intent to be reading TMC, never mind nobody has said anything about the family.

 

[thx1139]

I hope they make a better infrastructure bill, I just felt the bill, as written, distorted the auto market too much and this can lead to bad outcomes. Spending on public infrastructure is always a good goal when public infrastructure is crumbling.

Only thing that can be passed that doesnt require 60 votes to get past filibuster is budget reconciliation bill. So really anything important to green energy or voting rights is dead. It is clear US is heading to authoritarian country where the politicians pick the voters.

 

[Drumheller]

Tesla just had a analysts meeting/conference where they gave clear guidance 1.5 million. Even if they simply state 50% growth as they have been doing on Q4 earnings call, it doesn't negate that they've given that guidance now.

I don't think it puts them in any sort of compromising position because given how Tesla has been consistently sandbagging, I think the only way they would give that 1.5 million guidance is if they thought that was a worst case outcome.

Where did you get info from that meeting? Shouldn't information shared with analysts be available to shareholders? Thanks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If the BBB EV credit is passed with a $90K cap for pickup trucks, that basically sets the market price for all cybertrucks sold, because demand will far outstrip supply.

No BBB

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471152371250212873

I think the ASP for Cybertruck just went UP! (no more price ceiling)

Cheers!

 

[Discoducky]

That means Q4 would be 200k+

Huge if true!

Edit: But on second read, might just be runrate, still great though...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471038403978629120

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Where did you get info from that meeting? Shouldn't information shared with analysts be available to shareholders? Thanks.

We knew there was some sort of investors meeting happening last week because the week before there was a schedule that was posted of it. Then Gary confirmed that he was on that investor's meeting and gave a detailed breakdown of what all was said, including that Tesla stated 2022 guidance of 1.5 million. Tesla also stated that they expect the first year of Berlin and Austin to mimic Shanghai's first year in terms of output/margins.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468975134279090176

And yes, I do not like that Tesla does these private investors/analyst meetings. They did it back in Q1 of this year and I didn't like it then at all. However, this is a common thing on Wall St. Companies hold private analysts meetings all the time.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like we have some good old)fashioned capping ongoing at $940...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That means Q4 would be 200k+

Huge if true!

Edit: But on second read, might just be runrate, still great though...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471038403978629120

Run rate wouldn't make any sense though .....they're already at 500k annual run rate based off Oct and Nov production numbers.

 

[Curt Renz]

IMO, the Paris crash was likely the result of the driver mistakenly stomping on the accelerator when he meant to hit the brake pedal.

Reuters - 12:21 EST: Tesla told France no sign of technical fault in Paris crash, govt says

Excerpts:

..."We have been in contact, of course, with Tesla's management and they tell us that there is no technical problem to flag on their vehicles," government spokesman Gabriel Attal told reporters...

...Transport Minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari told RMC radio that he had spoken with the chief executive of Tesla Europe, who told him there had been no safety alerts about the Model 3.

He added that the automaker, which collects detailed data from the sensors and cameras on its vehicles, notified him that it had provided the relevant technical data to investigators...

 

[CHGolferJim]

Mod: I remind all that we have a trial rule that you can't post about specific politicians by name or reference, and the reason has just been demonstrated: 11 off-topic posts have been deleted.
-- posts about existing tax rules influencing Elon's selling schedule are at least vaguely relevant, although we think enough has been said.
-- posts about some mythical possible future tax rule are not.

--ggr (o.b.o. Mod team)

Perhaps moderators could include a link to the “rules” whenever you call people out.

 

[Nocturnal]

It does feel weird to hear CNBC defending Elon Musk.

 

[ggies07]

No BBB

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471152371250212873

Holy *sugar*. There are a ton of things in that bill that needed to pass. We HAVE to rebuild our roads and bridges...man this ****ing country.

 

[FS_FRA]

Looks like we have some good old)fashioned capping ongoing at $940...

Also at $930…

 

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant

I might have missed that, but why # from Berlin = # from Austin? Shouldn't we see a larger # produced from Austin even though it'd be its 1st year?

Fair point.
I assume both sites launch at the same time and ramp at the same speed producing Model Ys for markets with high demand.
So at this point, it's hard to say that Austin will produce more than Berlin except for the fact that the Cybertruck will likely launch in late 2022 in Austin.
So perhaps Austin can be 10k to 30k higher depending on the Cybertruck ramp.

 

[traxila]

That means Q4 would be 200k+

Huge if true!

Edit: But on second read, might just be runrate, still great though...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471038403978629120

Yeah, but Shanghai already 600K year run rate base on last two months. If they are talking about run rate then snooze….. already done that.

 

[CorneliusXX]

From today's Telegraph

Electric car grants slashed for second time this year​

"A subsidy of £1,500 will now be available for purchases of up to £32,000, down from £2,500 in March. A grant of £3,000 had been available at the start of the year for purchases up to £50,000. The move cuts the number of cars available from 46 to just 20."

Interesting that here in the UK the grant is gradually being tapered whilst in the US it is being extended. A limit of £32,000 naturally excludes any Tesla. I don't believe it will make much of a difference to the numbers of BEVs sold, and the £zero road tax benefit still applies. Maybe Elon was right about not needing tax credits to sell electric cars. We shall see.

Consumer subsidies are less relevant in the UK anyway IMO. The regulations are providing much more of a stick than in many other countries. ULE zones and ICE ban in 2030 are a strong forcing function.

The UK market is too small to materially move EV investment decisions too.

That said, it's a shame I can't get a subsidy for the Y I'm getting delivered next year.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 years old how someone selling 2% of all the TSLA shares available in the world can make the stock plunge more than 30% in less than 1 month. Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 to reprogram the markets algorithm to make it more efficient so that if someone sells 10% of his shares if he holds 20% of the company to drop the stock price only of 2%. I have not found an answer to my question on howthingswork.tsla

(I understand there are front runners and other funds selling)

I'll use two examples:

Company A has a market cap of $10,000. 100 shares at $100 each

Example 1:
Only 1 share is for sale but 5 people want that share. It gets bid up to $200 because of demand. Market cap just doubled to $20,000 because the share price is now valued at $200.

Example 2, Opposite case (Elon Selling):
Same company A but 20 shares are for sale, demand is the same, 5 people each want a single share. Sellers have to drop their price, let's say each share goes for $95, then $90, and the 20th share sells for $50 because there are now more buyers joining the market because the price is at a discount. The market cap is now at $5,000.


This is over simplified but you asked for it to be explained to a 5 year old. A share of stock is only worth what someone will pay for it. More supply makes prices go down.