Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Ross Gerber seems to be a few glasses in to his Tesla Teguila bottle, but full of cheer as he is celebrating a '3 Gordon move' today in TSLA share price :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473787966002761737

Edit - Having watched this a little longer I might have underestimated with my original estimate of 'a few glasses'. What a difference between Gary Black and Ross though - Gary spends all his energy railing at Elon on Twitter because he appears to believe Elon is somehow keeping him from making more money, and Ross is on Twitter with a bottle of Teslaquila celebrating TSLA & Elon with TSLA investors. Just an observation............... to Longs

Well, he had already had a couple when he had his "first" shot!

And those aren't big shots, they are big doubles.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah......haven't done the math yet, but my well thought out and never executed shares-to-LEAPs/YOLOs plan is up something on the order of 26% & 120% respectively. So if anyone has a moment, please do drive over to my house and punch me in the face. Thanks in advance!

Closed all my BPS this week for peanuts. Woo f'ing hoo.

Eh don't feel too bad. I was only able to execute about a little of a third of what I had planned on Monday morning. I was waiting to see if the macro's were going to turn and head back down, taking TSLA 1-2% below it's 100 day average at the time and execute the rest. Oh well

 

[Thekiwi]

That would make a lot of sense. Though I think it would be Fremont RWD/LR and Austin Perf/New High Range Model

Long term it would be stupid not to make the cheaper entry level model Y in the factory which has the lowest per car production cost and the most capacity.

Long term that is obviously Austin rather than Fremont.

A Model Y SR built with dual castings & structural 4680 battery pack in Austin will obviously be cheaper to build than the current model Y built at Fremont.

 

[MP3Mike]

A Model Y SR built with dual castings & structural 4680 battery pack in Austin will obviously be cheaper to build than the current model Y built at Fremont.

It won't be made with a 4680 pack. It would be made with an LFP pack, likely made by CATL.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Long term it would be stupid not to make the cheaper entry level model Y in the factory which has the lowest per car production cost and the most capacity.

Long term that is obviously Austin rather than Fremont.

A Model Y SR built with dual castings & structural 4680 battery pack in Austin will obviously be cheaper to build than the current model Y built at Fremont.

My response was in relation to if they were using LFP battery for the entry level Model Y. Which in that case, it's much better to be producing it at Fremont where the shipments of batteries from CATL will come in through the port.

 

[Ogre]

The most I ever earned in my peak earning years was but a mid-single digit percentage of the kind of daily fluctuations I've been seeing. And I don't even look on the biggest down days because I know we will be re-tracing soon enough anyway. This is why I advise people to not think of their brokerage balances as money but as ownership tickets. It's the only thing that makes it not seem crazy. Using my method, my net worth only fluctuates with the growth of the company, not Wall Street idiocy.

What my balance looks like determines how much longer I work the day job. So I don’t quite have the luxury of not thinking about my IRA balance.

 

[Favguy]

It is certainly interesting seeing daily retirement fund fluctuations as big as your annual income.

Give it a few more years... For myself, todays move equated to what I would have earned over about 10 years prior to my recent retirement from paid work!, now that's truly bizarre to see, I never do quite get used to it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Someone correct me , as far As I understand
The 10b sale is preprogrammed and exempt from the lock out period .
Elon did say that 10b sale is complete.

Not quite done yet. Elon tweeted this comment this afternoon:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@Tesmanian_com When the 10b preprogrammed sales complete. There are still a few tranches left, but almost done." / Twitter​

... and it does not matter a wit for the SP going forward: The horses can see the barn now.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

When demand slacks off for the Model Y this gives them a budget option they can use. Simply lowering prices back down would be a train wreck.

LFP battery packs will allow Tesla to dramatically increase the Model Y supply in N. America (expect the flood gates to open in Apr 2022 when the last of the Patents for LFP expire in N. America).

Demand has NEVER been an issue for Model Y. With the current 6-9 mth backlog in orders, Tesla will sell ever single one they build, anywhere that suits them (young Captain).

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would guess Austin will stamp out the LR/Perf and Fremont LFP RWD cars?

Elon already said that Fremont will build 3/Y cars for California and the W. Coast, and Austin will build cars for the market East of the Rocky Mountains.

It's about the cost of logistics. It's trival to build a slightly different version: AWD and Perf. differ only in software (that's ALL of Model Y prod. currently), and the bty packs are modular (already transported from Nevada).

 

[StealthP3D]

What my balance looks like determines how much longer I work the day job. So I don’t quite have the luxury of not thinking about my IRA balance.

I'm recommending you think about your brokerage balance in a different way, not ignoring it altogether. And this is particularly important if you plan to retire based upon a brokerage account that is heavily weighted in one stock. In terms of when you can retire, it makes little difference whether the price is $1230 or dropping down to $850 this week or if it levitates to $1600 before the year is out.

Remember this too, when you retire young/early you have a lot more opportunity to spend so, in general, I recommend erring on the side of caution and working a couple of extra years - It can make a big difference.

 

[mickle]

Panasonic to expand Northern Nevada footprint with new Reno campus in early 2022​

Seems more like an office than a factory...

The three-story building, originally built in 1964, will be renovated to include engineering labs, employee recruitment and training facilities in addition to serving as the company headquarters.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA’s October 25th Hertz gap was filled on Monday, resulting in escape velocity thrusts upward on Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s technically encouraging. The bull test Thursday would be in the possibility of reascending the 50-day SMA (simple moving average).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Eh don't feel too bad. I was only able to execute about a little of a third of what I had planned on Monday morning. I was waiting to see if the macro's were going to turn and head back down, taking TSLA 1-2% below it's 100 day average at the time and execute the rest. Oh well

You waited for another dip? (Sorry, couldn’t help myself. At least u had a plan, something I lack at times.)
Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Didn't we just have news of someone buying a chunk of LFPs?

Haha yeah, Guoxuan to supply in 2023-2028. And the battery plant isn't built yet.

Moneyball on Twitter: "#Guoxuan: OEM signed 200GWh #LFP #battery 2023-2028 supply agreement with unnamed US #auto manufacturer, 2 parties also agreed #China OEM to build US battery plant. (CLS) https://t.co/nHMAcgNL8H" / Twitter​

Did I mention that VW owns 25% of Guoxuan?

 

[MC3OZ]

It won't be made with a 4680 pack. It would be made with an LFP pack, likely made by CATL.

4680 LFP cells made in the US might work out cheaper than an imported LFP pack, in the format normally used by CATL.

CATL making 4680 LFP cells for Tesla in China would not surprise me..

I wouldn't make assumptions that rule things in or out. But 4680 LFP is certainly possible, and probably not overly difficult.

But I would assume it is very likely entry level Model 3/Y will have LFP packs, and be able to be scaled to high volume production, so not cell constrained.

I also wound not rule out Fremont using front/rear castings for Model Y at some stage, perhaps sooner than we expect.

 

[Tommy O]

4680 LFP cells made in the US might work out cheaper than an imported LFP pack, in the format normally used by CATL.

Unlikely near term. Long term, maybe.

 

[Nolimits]

Elon Musk: My wealth 'isn't some deep mystery.' My taxes are super simple

When asked if H&R Block could do his taxes, Musk said, "H&R Block could easily do my taxes. I don't need H&R Block, I could do it."

www.cnbc.com

It’s been addressed on STMP with SMR and on the BB podcast but Good to see mainstream media reflecting similar tone.

Nothing to hide here. The investors dictate his wealth. We say the company is worth “x” much.

 

[MC3OZ]

Unlikely near term. Long term, maybe.

We need to know the details of import duties, etc.

The Chinese we exempt from licensing fees for LFP. those fees expire for everyone in (from memory) April 2022..

Fees are not the only reason LFP was mainly made in China, previously the energy density was an issue.

 

[bkp_duke]

Elon already said that Fremont will build 3/Y cars for California and the W. Coast, and Austin will build cars for the market East of the Rocky Mountains.

It's about the cost of logistics. It's trival to build a slightly different version: AWD and Perf. differ only in software (that's ALL of Model Y prod. currently), and the bty packs are modular (already transported from Nevada).

Brakes are substantially different between AWD and Perf. Perf cars have bigger brakes (but not big enough IMO).