Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I’m picking up my fourth Tesla today (completing the superfecta of S3XY). In contrast to your experience, I’ve been super impressed by how organized this pre-delivery experience has been compared to the previous ones. In the past, the sense I got was a company flying by the seat of its pants. Now, the email, text and phone notification system seems well oiled.

I think part of the explanation of the differences between your two recent experiences is explained by the fact that @Bet TSLA had no previous experience with deliveries post 2017, ie, after high volume Model 3 deliveries began. The norm before this were deliveries characterized by pampering and attention to detail as Tesla was very much a boutique automaker selling limited numbers of cars priced well into luxury territory. It was a shock to most early Tesla customers when the Model 3 started selling in large numbers and getting the cars in customers hands became more important than exactly how they got there. This is one thing of many that is driving rising margins as people are Tesla's most valuable and most costly asset.

Of course, there is also the natural variation of different delivery centers that is impossible to ever completely eliminate. It's not as bad as the customer experience disparity experienced at different legacy automakers dealerships since those businesses are independently owned, but there is no doubt that the skill, hiring ability and training of different delivery center managers is bound to vary, even within a company such as Tesla that presumably has more control over the delivery experience of their corporately owned delivery centers.

 

[StealthP3D]

Hyundai pushing all their chips in for EVs (closing their ICE development group)

Hyundai Motor closes engine development division - KED Global

Hyundai Motor Group, South Korea’s top automaker, will stop developing new internal combustion engines in order to accelerate its transformation into an

www.kedglobal.com

The message that this sends to auto buyers globally should not be under-estimated. This is a powerful message to every buyer of new cars, not that the future of the automobile might be EV's, or that the future will be a mix of EV's and ICE, but the future of the automobile is EV and it's coming much more quickly than you thought. Too many people still don't know this or think this way.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Premarket looks like a SpaceX rocket launch (currency is in Euros).

This does not seem to be a macros effect.

 

[Xd85]

Gary with some good info on Wedbush reiterating $1400 PT:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475783178216480768

demand problems validated

 

[HG Wells]

So, let me see if I have this right.

Local car dealer ad.

Hurry in and get a CLASSIC ICE car before they are all gone.
None of that humming sound.
Great full throttle roar that will scare the pants off that Tesla in the next lane.
Ask about aftermarket COAL rolling kits for sunday drives.

Remember, once they are gone they are gone for good.

GET ONE NOW !

EDIT: This is only my dream not an actual ad.

 

[mars_or_bust]

So, let me see if I have this right.

Local car dealer ad.

Hurry in and get a CLASSIC ICE car before they are all gone.
None of that humming sound.
Great full throttle roar that will scare the pants off that Tesla in the next lane.
Ask about aftermarket COAL rolling kits for sunday drives.

Remember, once they are gone they are gone for good.

GET ONE NOW !

Bullish.

 

[Singuy]

Bullish.

My dad asked me if the chip shortage problem has been solved because he is beginning to see car ads again. They disappeared for a good half a year.

 

[hobbes]

What?

I've followed @verygreen on Twitter for a while and I thought he said compute usage on HW3 for FSD beta was beyond what would allow redundancy.

To say that this precludes HW3 from being able to achieve some level X or Y of self driving takes a logical leap of faith. It assumes whatever final code to run FSD prod on HW3 is necessarily going to be too much to allow for redundancy. How can anyone claim to know?

To claim HW4 is what's needed takes another leap of logic. Maybe it'll take HW5!

Or maybe HW3 is already enough at some acceptable level of safety.

I find it unlikely that the final code for FSD will have smaller neural networks (as would be necessary to run it redundantly on HW3), as they had been planning to be able to run it on pre-3.0 versions. So it appears as if the NNs keeping getting bigger. That fits with Karpathy saying that one big feature of the NNs they use is that their performance scales with size.

 

[15Peter20]

1. How many are truly complaining?

2. How soon they forget. (Of course probably this event was blocked from them by the state.)

A chunk of Chinese satellite almost hit the International Space Station. They dodged it – but the space junk problem is getting worse

A close call for the International Space Station highlights the growing problem of space junk putting satellites at risk.

theconversation.com

Probably FUD. The UK’s Daily Telegraph managed to extrapolate this non-story into a potential headwind for Shanghai GF. I can’t be bothered to link to the non story. (In the same edition there’s an article on how young EV drivers will miss out by not having to learn gears, clutches, double de-clutch downshifting etc. Pathetic).

 

[15Peter20]

Bullish.

Bull something.

 

[hobbes]

I bet HW3 is sufficient for the goal of 10x safer - but needs reverse please.

“So much of AI is about compressing reality to a small vector space, like a video game in reverse.” (Elon)

Didn’t Elon also mention a capability of 100x safer for CyberTruck? (Maybe because it’s so big, safer for the driver, the other vehicle not so much.) Don’t quote me - Can’t find it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475312943420121088

This is what Elon said at AI-day - he talks about 10times safer for HW4.0 but this only seems to be an educated guess.

“I’m confident that HW 3.0 or the FSD Computer 1 will be able to achieve full self-driving at a safety level much greater than a human, probably at least 200-300% better than a human. Obviously, there will be a future HW 4.0 or Full Self Driving Computer 2, which we’ll probably introduce with the Cybertruck, so maybe in about a year or so.

“That’ll be about four times more capable, roughly. But it’s really just gonna be like, can we take it from, say, for argument’s sake, 300% safer than a person to 1000% safer. And just like there are people on the road who have varying driving abilities, but we still let people drive. You don’t have to be the world’s best driver to be on the road,” Musk said.

Tesla Cybertruck’s HW4.0 computer will be built by Samsung: report

Recent reports have indicated that Tesla’s Hardware 4 computer, which would make its debut in the Cybertruck, would be produced by Samsung Electronics Co. The world-leading chipmaker is reportedly certain to beat out its rival, the larger Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), for the...

www.teslarati.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

So, let me see if I have this right.

Local car dealer ad.

Hurry in and get a CLASSIC ICE car before they are all gone.
None of that humming sound.
Great full throttle roar that will scare the pants off that Tesla in the next lane.
Ask about aftermarket COAL rolling kits for sunday drives.

Remember, once they are gone they are gone for good.

GET ONE NOW !

EDIT: This is only my dream not an actual ad.

I wonder about how it all collapses, like what comes first, second...? Anyone for a thought experiment?
- Parts not available
- Nobody want's your used ICE
- Nobody want's your Hybrid
- Price of a barrel of oil drops from low demand
- Gas prices rise as refineries exit
- Gas stations close or convert to EV, no customers

Like what's the actual wakeup call that sets it in motion to where it's so obvious and the scramble happens in every home? When can I say to the people in our cul de sac... "I warned you."

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is what Elon said at AI-day - he talks about 10times safer for HW4.0 but this only seems to be an educated guess.

Tesla Cybertruck’s HW4.0 computer will be built by Samsung: report

Recent reports have indicated that Tesla’s Hardware 4 computer, which would make its debut in the Cybertruck, would be produced by Samsung Electronics Co. The world-leading chipmaker is reportedly certain to beat out its rival, the larger Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), for the...

www.teslarati.com

Thanks for finding that! I clearly confused % for x. And I thought we were further along...

 

[JRP3]

Multiple texts and phone calls and e-mail, seemingly made by people who had no idea what their colleagues were doing or saying. Delivery is on, it's off. The VIN has been reassigned. It's back! All four of my delivery experiences have been ends of quarters, but none as disorganized as this.

I'm seeing similar confusion in other delivery threads. I ordered in Nov but told them I didn't want it till next year, they still assigned me a VIN and sent paper work, including an odd request to sign one that said I had taken delivery of the car before it has even shipped. I told them to release the car to someone else as I was in no hurry.

 

[samppa]

So, let me see if I have this right.

Local car dealer ad.

Hurry in and get a CLASSIC ICE car before they are all gone.
None of that humming sound.
Great full throttle roar that will scare the pants off that Tesla in the next lane.
Ask about aftermarket COAL rolling kits for sunday drives.

Remember, once they are gone they are gone for good.

GET ONE NOW !

EDIT: This is only my dream not an actual ad.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm seeing similar confusion in other delivery threads. I ordered in Nov but told them I didn't want it till next year, they still assigned me a VIN and sent paper work, including an odd request to sign one that said I had taken delivery of the car before it has even shipped. I told them to release the car to someone else as I was in no hurry.

Even more bullish if that's possible!
Can't wait for deliveries then Jan 3rd action.

 

[CorneliusXX]

My dad asked me if the chip shortage problem has been solved because he is beginning to see car ads again. They disappeared for a good half a year.

There's other hints that the supply shortage might be starting to let up. Here's an article from the FT today. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds over the next couple of quarters.

 

[petit_bateau]

I wonder about how it all collapses, like what comes first, second...? Anyone for a thought experiment?
- Parts not available
- Nobody want's your used ICE
- Nobody want's your Hybrid
- Price of a barrel of oil drops from low demand
- Gas prices rise as refineries exit
- Gas stations close or convert to EV, no customers

Like what's the actual wakeup call that sets it in motion to where it's so obvious and the scramble happens in every home? When can I say to the people in our cul de sac... "I warned you."

- your ICE manufacturer has gone bust, the warranty is void, resale value has cratered

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475822182643253254

 

[thx1139]

My dad asked me if the chip shortage problem has been solved because he is beginning to see car ads again. They disappeared for a good half a year.

Really? I have been perplexed because I see Ford F150 advertisements all the time and even more puzzling when Ford is reporting they have stock piled F150s because needed chips arent available I still see Ford offering 0% financing and cash back.