Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I wonder about how it all collapses, like what comes first, second...? Anyone for a thought experiment?
- Parts not available
- Nobody want's your used ICE
- Nobody want's your Hybrid
- Price of a barrel of oil drops from low demand
- Gas prices rise as refineries exit
- Gas stations close or convert to EV, no customers

Like what's the actual wakeup call that sets it in motion to where it's so obvious and the scramble happens in every home? When can I say to the people in our cul de sac... "I warned you."

No wake up call. People (lots) fear change. They cling to what they know until there’s nothing left to cling to and they are forced to let go. They’ll complain, rant and rave, lie, cheat and steal, then grudgingly accept because there is no choice.

How it goes down is simple; the old goes out of business. Slowly at first, but then picks up speed. The market for after after market parts actually grows and thrives and morphs as a long, long time passes, most everything else old implodes. One or two manage to pull their heads out of their bundt cakes just in the nick of time.

How did vinyl records, film camera, VHS/Beta/cassette/CD, tube TV, Atari, push button phones etc… businesses go. Like that, just louder.

@HG Wells nailed it with his dream ad. Look closely around you, that’s already happening.

 

[thx1139]

I find it unlikely that the final code for FSD will have smaller neural networks (as would be necessary to run it redundantly on HW3), as they had been planning to be able to run it on pre-3.0 versions. So it appears as if the NNs keeping getting bigger. That fits with Karpathy saying that one big feature of the NNs they use is that their performance scales with size.

One thing to take into account with HW3 and FSD is a lot of load is being put on the hardware doing extensive logging, far more logging then what will be done during production release. When I am testing software and trace logging or debug logging it slows the processes that I am testing.

 

[kcveins]

Even more bullish if that's possible!
Can't wait for deliveries then Jan 4rd action (assuming Mon 3rd is a holiday).

Jan 3rd is a normal day..
Holidays go to the closest day (or Friday off if holiday is on Saturday) but does not appear to apply for NY

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm seeing similar confusion in other delivery threads. I ordered in Nov but told them I didn't want it till next year, they still assigned me a VIN and sent paper work, including an odd request to sign one that said I had taken delivery of the car before it has even shipped. I told them to release the car to someone else as I was in no hurry.

You’re not much of a team player, huh? Making Tesla redo paperwork and not adding to Q4 bottom line. So disappointing.

 

[Hock1]

Wot, me? Haha, my DCA is $59.12 per share right now. So yeah, I could have put in 150% my original investment to obtain 10% more shares last week. Or, wait just 3 weeks (my CAGR will do that) while doing nothing, relaxing and enjoying life and STILL get that 10% increase in TSLA returns...

I SIZED my bet appropriately 4 years ago. Let me tell you what that means. I put in 3% of my net worth (which I would NOT miss IF the investment went South) with the intent that it would grow to a million dollars by the time I reach retirement age (gotta pick a number, right?)

Tesla has VASTLY outperformed my (wildly optimistic) targets over the period in which I have been invested. Now, I'm a Teslanaire, AND it looks very favorable that I may be exceed 1 million dollars in returns ANNUALLY by the time I hit 65.

This, ALL THIS, via HODL'ing. And MMs/hedgies shenanagans never fool me because I never go for their head fake.

Paging @Hock1 (who is King? Bend the knee).

Cheers!

I actually remember when you announced that you had put 3% of your investible assets into TSLA. At the time, I thought that wasn't much of a commitment, but then again I wasn't privy to your overall financial picture. Apparently, you had considerably more $$ than most here BEFORE you invested in TSLA, in order to produce several millions with 3%. Anyway, I started with 10% of assets with DCA of About $46.xx. In my investing history, before I got old, I probably would have put 100% in. I don't know who is "King", but I'd say we are pretty good candidates for poster child for HODLing. Congratulations. Your contributions have been of enormous help for a lot of people here. Thanks.

 

[H Mak]

No wake up call. People (lots) fear change. They cling to what they know until there’s nothing left to cling to and they are forced to let go. They’ll complain, rant and rave, lie, cheat and steal, then grudgingly accept because there is no choice.

How it goes down is simple; the old goes out of business. Slowly at first, but then picks up speed. The market for after after market parts actually grows and thrives and morphs as a long, long time passes, most everything else old implodes. One or two manage to pull their heads out of their bundt cakes just in the nick of time.

How did vinyl records, film camera, VHS/Beta/cassette/CD, tube TV, Atari, push button phones etc… businesses go. Like that, just louder.

@H Mak nailed it with his dream ad. Look closely around you, that’s already happening.

Not me, someone else

 

[HG Wells]

Its gonna be a nice open.

Are all the MM's on vacation this week ?

 

[JRP3]

You’re not much of a team player, huh? Making Tesla redo paperwork and not adding to Q4 bottom line. So disappointing.

True, I added to my personal Q4 bottom line by adding more TSLA instead. Of course they could have saved the paperwork by getting my order right in the first place and not trying to deliver it this year. Frankly I'm none too pleased with their attempt to have me sign my name to a fraudulent statement, I hope they don't do it again.

 

[SOULPEDL]

No wake up call. People (lots) fear change. They cling to what they know until there’s nothing left to cling to and they are forced to let go. They’ll complain, rant and rave, lie, cheat and steal, then grudgingly accept because there is no choice.

How it goes down is simple; the old goes out of business. Slowly at first, but then picks up speed. The market for after after market parts actually grows and thrives and morphs as a long, long time passes, most everything else old implodes. One or two manage to pull their heads out of their bundt cakes just in the nick of time.

How did vinyl records, film camera, VHS/Beta/cassette/CD, tube TV, Atari, push button phones etc… businesses go. Like that, just louder.

@H Mak nailed it with his dream ad. Look closely around you, that’s already happening.

“Boats are sinking everywhere, insurance companies baffled.”

 

[Tim S]

Pretty sure his crystal ball said $1150 by EOD today.

Didn't he say he sold at $1113 yesterday?

Edit: Is this the guy you're talking about?

 

[Prunesquallor]

I wonder about how it all collapses, like what comes first, second...? Anyone for a thought experiment?
- Parts not available
- Nobody want's your used ICE
- Nobody want's your Hybrid
- Price of a barrel of oil drops from low demand
- Gas prices rise as refineries exit
- Gas stations close or convert to EV, no customers

Like what's the actual wakeup call that sets it in motion to where it's so obvious and the scramble happens in every home? When can I say to the people in our cul de sac... "I warned you."

My guesses (US-centric). Loss of jobs will be the wake-up.

GM bankruptcy/bailout

Ford bankruptcy/bailout

ICE Dealership closures/bankrupties

Many gas stations will close from lack of business and zero profits, as gas prices will plunge (oil companies/cartels will flood the market trying to stimulate demand). Site remediation business will boom. Some may convert to EV charging, but too many stations currently, especially in suburban areas (Lots of home charging options).

Luxury ICE market collapses.

Refinery workers layoffs.

Oil exploration workers layoffs.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not me, someone else

‍

*needs more caffeine*

 

[SOULPEDL]

Jan 3rd is a normal day..
Holidays go to the closest day (or Friday off if holiday is on Saturday) but does not appear to apply for NY

I fixed the error, thx.

 

[SOULPEDL]

MMD moved to PMD?

 

[Singuy]

Anyone see large blocks being sold that looks like Elon?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Didn't he say he sold at $1113 yesterday?

Edit: Is this the guy you're talking about?

View attachment 749201

I don't know who they're referring to- I was just joking around with the $1150 crystal ball target. Well, that's my prediction. Sorry, I probably should have made that more clear.

 

[Singuy]

You’re not much of a team player, huh? Making Tesla redo paperwork and not adding to Q4 bottom line. So disappointing.

If Tesla impose stronger non refundable deposit in the near future then we know why.

 

[jhm]

I wonder about how it all collapses, like what comes first, second...? Anyone for a thought experiment?
- Parts not available
- Nobody want's your used ICE
- Nobody want's your Hybrid
- Price of a barrel of oil drops from low demand
- Gas prices rise as refineries exit
- Gas stations close or convert to EV, no customers

Like what's the actual wakeup call that sets it in motion to where it's so obvious and the scramble happens in every home? When can I say to the people in our cul de sac... "I warned you."

Fun to speculate. My wife has a film camera that we haven't used in nearly 20 years. When we got our first digital camera, we stopped buying film for the old one and forgot about it. Now we have great cameras on our smartphones, so we have forgotten about the digital cameras too.

Maybe this transition is too simple as a model for the EV transition. After all, the cameras we have forgotten over the years are small and still sit somewhere in our closets. They were never such a large investment that we needed to sell them or make special arrangements to haul them away. But one thing seems clear, from the perspective of early adopters, you can easily trade in, sell or give away your ICE vehicle when you replace it with an EV. You can easily forget about you old ICE. It's someone else's problem.

Internationally, we know that affluent countries tend to buy new cars and a large fraction of used cars get exported to less affluent countries. So affluent countries that transition quickly to EVs could simply cast off most of the aging ICE fleet. Forgotten.

But this raises questions out the countries that import used ICE. Will they become flooded with cars that nobody wants. For example, parts of Africa have become dumping ground for cast off used clothing donated from affluent countries. The poor can pick off what they want from mountains of clothing. Perhaps we will see giant tracts of land in Africa covered with used vehicle, a defacto pick-and-pull for spare parts. A giant fleet of old ICE could cannibalize through to the next century. This could have adverse environmental consequences for poorer countries with cast off fleets. Proper recycling of used vehicles might not be available at scale in these places. When ICE values decline so much that affluent countries are "donating" ICE to poor countries, watch out. Donating easily crosses the line in to dumping. Dumping ICE into poor countries that lack automotive recycling infrastructure is negligence. It would be far better to recycle cars in affluent countries and donate useful reclaimed metals to developing countries if one has genuine charity in mind.

Of course, in affluent countries there very well may persist a nostalgia market for ICE. But my hunch is that the nostalgia market will fixate around certain iconic models and types of vehicles. Watch what ICE models remain in production the longest. There's a lot of forgettable ICE that will go out of production by the end of the decade. My own modeling suggests that from 2024 to 2030 non-BEV falls from 80% of new car market to 20%. This is a rapid collapse of demand for the most forgettable models of ICE. What's left in production after 2030 is largely niche, nostalgia or going-out-of-business models. Only the nostalgia models will have any sort of durable value. However, nostalgic petrol heads will have a huge supply of used vehicles to pick over for many decades. Nostalgia buyers may even find that they prefer pre-EV vintage model years to post-EV model years. As companies like Hyundai shut down ICE development units the quality of new ICE could decline. ICE makers just try to make the post-EV ICE models as cheap as possible with little inspiration or innovation. So the nostalgic car buyer could come to appreciate the older model years back when car makers still had some passion for antiquated technology.

Another twist here is that if you can use your smartphone to call a self-driving EV at lower cost than owning an EV or ICE, then quite a lot of us could forget even about owning a car. This would be like the digital camera we never use because smartphone.

 

[Nocturnal]

We had lots of speculation about people deferring orders, but either that didn't happen or those folks changed their minds. I'd take the MYP I ordered immediately if one were available. Even model 3 inventory is very lean.

Many gas stations will close from lack of business and zero profits, as gas prices will plunge (oil companies/cartels will flood the market trying to stimulate demand). Site remediation business will boom. Some may convert to EV charging, but too many stations currently, especially in suburban areas (Lots of home charging options).

Right. And most stations aren't in the correct locations or have the right sort of facilities. You need more space for EV charging, and better amenities. Not trying to sound classist here, but your average EV driver isn't going to pop into the station for a lotto ticket and some skoal. You need lattes and avocado toast or something.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

- Nobody want's your used ICE

I know a guy who is an auto broker and he is advising all his clients to get EVs so they don't get stuck with obsolete technology and very low resale values as a result.