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I felt pretty stupid this morning buying more and more chairs today.... I have no idea if this was the best move....

Catalysts for the next few weeks:
  • Elon done selling
  • shorts must cover tomorrow to clear their transaction in 2021
  • risk to be short for P/D report this weekend
  • end-of-quarter/year window-dressing by fund managers
  • recent analyst upgrades, with likely more incoming
  • immanent P/D report likely exceeding most expectations
  • "double-bottom" forming on the chart, according to technical analysts
  • delta-hedging required for Friday call walls at $1100 and 1150 and 1200
  • immanent openings of two gigantic factories
  • all automajors (even Toyota) now claiming development of BEVs; Hyundai/Kia abandoning ICE development
  • nearly everyone now acknowledging Tesla's leadership in BEVs
Odds are good that you made the right move.
 
I've long been concerned by the lack of battery so I'd say your statement is spot on but bless Seba for calling the trend out before most others really had and for putting the story together in such a way that it was easy to understand. I really appreciate his work.

I'm worried about battery capacity ...I have a sloppy spreadhseet of installed capacity and am starting to keep track of announcements but I just don't see the WATTS. Need more capacity unless there is some 4680 bombshell. LiFe will help tremendously because we need energy battery capacity just as much as EV capacity.

I would suggest that the announced battery factories only comprise a subset of all battery capacity by 2026 (let alone 2030). In other words, previously announced production capacity plans are not even a good estimation of the minimum expected capacity because it's only as complete as it is. Because we are still in the early stages of the transition, we should expect capacity to grow faster than current plans. This is how disruptions always unfold, they would not be disruptions if everything followed plans.

For example, look at Ford's announced EV production about a year ago. They started out by announcing some ridiculously small number of EVs by 2025 while acting like it was a huge step forward. Then, within a year, they doubled planned production, not once, but twice, and we don't know how many times they might update those numbers in the coming months and years. Without considering possible future increases, that's already 4 times the original announced EV capacity and we can expect the same thing to happen with estimated battery production capacities. The current announcements will accelerate (and we can expect to see announcements by new entrants in coming years). Current estimates are not even good starting points; they were born out of ignorance and short-sighted thinking. Yes, it takes time to build new factories, but the real profits will go to those who can do it the most quickly. Money is a powerful motivator. I suspect Tesla's estimated capacities are also conservative and will accelerate as well. There are good reasons for them to estimate low and execute high.

Using announced battery production capacity to doubt the speed of the growth of the EV revolution is silly. But it sure sounds reasonable to "conventional" thinking. Conventional thinking does not make disruptions happen.
 
Catalysts for the next few weeks:
  • Elon done selling
  • shorts must cover tomorrow to clear their transaction in 2021
  • risk to be short for P/D report this weekend
  • end-of-quarter/year window-dressing by fund managers
  • recent analyst upgrades, with likely more incoming
  • immanent P/D report likely exceeding most expectations
  • "double-bottom" forming on the chart, according to technical analysts
  • delta-hedging required for Friday call walls at $1100 and 1150 and 1200
  • immanent openings of two gigantic factories
  • all automajors (even Toyota) now claiming development of BEVs; Hyundai/Kia abandoning ICE development
  • nearly everyone now acknowledging Tesla's leadership in BEVs
Odds are good that you made the right move.
Tax is based on transaction time not settling time, right?
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: Dig deeper
Sebas numbers haven't panned out for years running now. Right idea, but way ahead of actual production capacity.


There's simply not enough batteries in the pipeline to replace 100% of just 2030 ICE sales.

Let alone replace the 20 years of such sales it takes to replace all the existing ICE on the road.


This is one place where, unusually, Elons predictions are far more realistic than that of others.... ~30 million EVs a year by 2030 is doable with battery scaling as we see it happening now (with the majority being Tesla). Current vehicle sales, annually, are more than double 30 million though.

And there's approaching 2 billion ICE vehicles on the road to replace.

Even if we could have 30 million EVs per year available today you couldn't replace even 1/4 of those by 2030. And we won't have remotely near that many EVs per year selling this year. Or next. The battery factories to do so aren't built yet.

Elon remarked at the shareholder meeting this year it'll be decades before EVs has entirely replaced ICE in the worldwide fleet.... and he's probably got a more realistic handle on how possible that is than Seba.
People always leave out the compression effects of ride share - nothing like 80 million/year new vehicle sales will take place in future. More like 20-30 million privately owned vehicles/year. Fleet automated vehicle sales will be very specialized units with half sized batteries in urban areas.
The old paradigm is invalid for estimating future need.
 
I don’t know if this was mentioned yet, but I suspect future battery production models miss out on the fact that technology is changing in parallel with improved density, efficiency, costs, and chemistries. As a result, it’s compounding growth not straight line. It’s why I think many estimates on growth may fall short. Moores law applies here as well - in terms of innovation. And we’re talking Tesla innovation, those curves are new to us all.
 
The disruption is when the mindset changes, when only a minority of buyers will buy a new ICE.

But that wasn't the original claim.

It was "Tony Seba predicts the clean energy and transport transition is largely complete by 2030"

Not "the disruption will have started" but the transition will largely be complete by then.

It literally can't be because not even 50% of new cars will be EVs by then, according to Elon Musk himself--- who again probably has a better handle on how many EVs are possible by 2030 than Tony Seba.



As for battery supplies, no one has the aim of making fewer batteries. Plenty of companies including Telsa are aiming to make more batteries.

Sure.

Just not in nearly the numbers required to have the transition of both energy and transport largely complete by 2030. Not even Tesla and they openly say so.



We can still find people riding horses, using film cameras, refusing to own a mobile phone or have an internet connection, but all of these transitions happened fast, even when they required lifestyle adjustments.


As I've pointed out before, the Seba video everyone likes to cite suggests the horse transition was a matter of barely a decade by showing you a NYC parade picture barely a decade apart.... but that's exceedingly far removed from reality beyond the parade.... even in NYC horses remained in very common use for over 20 years after cars showed up... and in most of the country remained in common use until roughly the mid-late 1940s... (and in common use vs. automobiles in much of the less rich world even longer).

The horse->car transition wasn't as nearly as fast as Seba suggests for most of the world.

Neither will the EV one be.

And the horse transition didn't have massive, ultra-rich, corporate interests doing all they can to slow it down either. The EV one does.

Someone else references Ford raising production #s as evidence legacy can magically find more batteries... but their original #s were hilariously tiny... the "increased" numbers are still underwhelming as hell.



Again, Elon himself repeatedly states this-- battery supply is not growing, or going to grow, nearly fast enough to meet all demand through the rest of the decade. (and coming up with EVEN MOAR batteries to make the energy transition ALSO be largely complete by 2030? No way in the world.



As recently as this years shareholder meeting Elon reiterates this where he suggests it'll still be decades before EVs are a majority of vehicles, and his own projections about total sales don't even have them a majority of single-year sales by 2030.



If you wanna believe Seba over Elon you're welcome to... but Elon's the guy I'm putting my $ on being right here.


Tesla is miles ahead of everyone else on battery scaling, AND telling all the major 3rd party battery makers they'll take every battery you can make on top.... and even with that is only expecting enough cells for 20 million EVs by end of the decade (and another 10 million TOTAL from everyone else in the industry)-- again without getting into how scaled energy will be by then with most cells continuing to go to cars.... (LFP is gonna make energy significantly LESS choked for cells by auto than in the past- but not to the scale of completing that transition in less than 10 years either)




Pretty much everything about 4680 Cells/Integrated Packs, from the production capacity and efficiency to the cost savings, are not modeled in at this point. The market fundamentally doesn't believe practically all of the claims Tesla made on Battery Day.


I mean... I think Elon probably has some idea of the production capacity on 4680 cells right?

He's the one saying only 30 million EVs a year by 2030 (and only if the other companies come up with 10 million/yr by then), not "transition complete" by then....

Why do you not believe Elon?
 
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I don’t know if this was mentioned yet, but I suspect future battery production models miss out on the fact that technology is changing in parallel with improved density, efficiency, costs, and chemistries. As a result, it’s compounding growth not straight line. It’s why I think many estimates on growth may fall short. Moores law applies here as well - in terms of innovation. And we’re talking Tesla innovation, those curves are new to us all.

Pretty much everything about 4680 Cells/Integrated Packs, from the production capacity and efficiency to the cost savings, are not modeled in at this point. The market fundamentally doesn't believe practically all of the claims Tesla made on Battery Day.

I look forward to the crow eating.
 
Pretty much everything about 4680 Cells/Integrated Packs, from the production capacity and efficiency to the cost savings, are not modeled in at this point. The market fundamentally doesn't believe practically all of the claims Tesla made on Battery Day.

I look forward to the crow eating.
Yep, the only thing baked into the current SP for general wall street is Austin and Germany, not 4680s though and maybe Semi, but I highly doubt even Tesla energy is seen as additive.

More massive crow eating coming soon!

I don't think Shanghai expansion is baked in either...
 
Do what you need to do that makes you feel comfortable. Don't let them pressure you into making a decision about your investment to keep them happy. I've been with Fidelity over 20 years now and in the beginning they contacted me at least monthly. Now the guy that was my assigned advisor back then (and still is now) is a VP there and he has an assistant call me once a year to see if I want to schedule an appointment with him. This guy convinced me that having too much AAPL 20 years ago was dangerous and I needed to diversify. Sadly I finally let him talk me into selling half my AAPL chairs just before iPhone. Their mantra of "diversify for safety" probably makes sense for a lot of people who really don't know what they are doing, but also selling/buying keeps the churn going which profits the brokers. It was a learning experience that cost me a few million dollars.
This has also been my experience with TD Ameritrade, as well as several financial advisors I’ve interviewed over the past few years. I had some Apple stock that did well and as a result, became a large portion of my portfolio. Everyone I spoke to said I needed to diversify and that Apple wasn’t likely to grow anymore. I ended up selling my entire stake in 2018. It’s tripled since then.

That was a valuable lesson, I don’t lose any sleep over this because I used half of the proceeds to pay for my daughter’s college tuition and I put the rest into Tesla 😀
 
How many people here have FSD Beta? I just got it three days ago and my experience has been bad. For some reason it doesn't work anything like on the FSD videos on YouTube, maybe is because I live South Carolina but I had two instances that I felt like the car was going to crash and I had to intervene aggressively.
I suspect a lot more have FSD now.

There are some videos out there that would scare anyone if you look hard enough and I believe many choose not to share everything. I’ve had a few myself. But I also feel I was made for this (having had extensive snow driving experience) and I can assure you that’s much more dangerous and requires even more skill to handle than even yesterdays version.

It’s a risk reward that we accept in order to improve the safety for the next group or for our kids. In exchange for this valuable data we share with Tesla, we get to experience the future and learn how to co-pilot for improved safety. I believe my driving DNA will persist in a tiny way as a pioneer for quite some time, maybe even eternally.

If you don’t feel comfortable using it, then I recommend you disable it for a little while for an improved version. They do get better for the most part with each release. So maybe wait until V11 to jump back in and use with your own discretion depending on where you are.

Many use just the freeways, my wife is waiting for a few more perfect rides before trying any left/right turns. I tend to let the car play out to see how it does and correct last sec, but that’s not for everyone.
 
How many people here have FSD Beta? I just got it three days ago and my experience has been bad. For some reason it doesn't work anything like on the FSD videos on YouTube, maybe is because I live South Carolina but I had two instances that I felt like the car was going to crash and I had to intervene aggressively.
If you find poor performance, do a cleaning of the cameras then recalibrate. Experience would change dramatically. You should be nearing zero intervention in the suburbs with good lane markings.
 
I felt pretty stupid this morning buying more and more chairs today. I had bought many around 1200 then watched the account shrink as I rode them all down in slow mo. It was deja vu, but a bunch of things clicked.

The All-in was something I’d never done. I thought others who did this where reckless. I always wanted a buffer and justified it as necessary for buying the dip.

But the dips came, I bought a few, but always kept some close, along with some BTC and some ARKK as if to diversify. :rolleyes: My plan up until yesterday was to use the cash to pay off debt next Jan, and would likely have sold even further.

Some credit goes to Radish (something or other) for posting that total exit this week. That post, followed by silence, hit me funny. Everyone replying, it just seemed planned and I kept reading it over and over. I don’t know this person and some defended the move respectfully, but being somewhat of a contrarian investor I used that info to my benefit and wanted to prove I was right. I was on a mission to do the opposite, and then the lightbulb came on!

I don’t know how many times I’ve read here about how much money was missed out on, all because someone bought a Model S instead of investing in TSLA a decade ago.

Then, get this, sailing this week on a sunset cruise, I met a banker. Who was his client? None other than Tesla Solar! He wrote the solar loans and I got a nice dose of reality. He recommended that a typical solar loan under 6% interest should not be paid early. (He also shared how the product was only 1/3 the total cost as an aside.) His info was a green light for me to keep all my loans, mainly because of inflation. I guess I’m not done with banks after all.

I’ll spare the details on all the things I’ve learned here over the years, and the long list of folks who taught me to see the FUD from the facts, but my investment plan took on a new vector today.

I didn’t quite make it to all in, but pretty close and the week isn’t over yet. I have no idea if this was the best move, nothing is certain with TSLA month to month, but the trend line continues to soar overall. That’s why I HODL.

My one call option will likely depart soon, maybe I get a return, maybe not. I have trouble using the very instrument that Elon opposes while still talking the talk.

I can’t thank Elon and the teams enough for their hard word and solid drive and focus. We are changing the world and investing in the company helps us all do better so he keeps them incentivized. It’s a completely connect ecosystem.

As they say, if you don’t stand for something, then you don’t stand a chance (or stand for no reason, or you’re just sitting… something like that). Now let’s light this thing already!

Cheers!

If it makes you feel any better, I increased my net stake in Tesla today by another 10% with 1200/1700 Jan2024 call spreads. This increased my margin usage to 30%, and was my largest transaction by several times.

I’m planning to sell some assets next week to bring the margin usage down. I didn’t want to wait until the new year to open this position, but also didn’t want to maintain this much leverage longer than necessary.

Good luck to all!
 
Time to sleep easy…

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We contemplated for a while on whether to wait for BBB rebate to pass or not. But decided to just go for it. Wasn’t sure if our income limit will qualify.

So we picked up a Model Y for thanksgiving. Heated steering wheels, double pane glass, all the new* updates…. Loved it. Then I picked up my model 3 last week and voila - new headlights & Xmas update. All is right. Kinda .. wished we waited for new headlights for the Y too.

Then this morning - Woke up to: Amd chips in all new 3 & Ys.. another thing I missed out.. Then saw the pre market numbers….

Thought of Teslas pace of innovation and integration. I guess I can’t be too upset. This is why the stock price will keep going up and no one is catching Tesla anytime soon.
 
We contemplated for a while on whether to wait for BBB rebate to pass or not. But decided to just go for it. Wasn’t sure if our income limit will qualify.

So we picked up a Model Y for thanksgiving. Heated steering wheels, double pane glass, all the new* updates…. Loved it. Then I picked up my model 3 last week and voila - new headlights & Xmas update. All is right. Kinda .. wished we waited for new headlights for the Y too.

Then this morning - Woke up to: Amd chips in all new 3 & Ys.. another thing I missed out.. Then saw the pre market numbers….

Thought of Teslas pace of innovation and integration. I guess I can’t be too upset. This is why the stock price will keep going up and no one is catching Tesla anytime soon.
Just flip the car every 2 years. Used prices are great 😁