CLK350
Member
Well, the FUD army, or more precisely the SUGB (Suicidal Unaware Greedy Bastards) is trying - let's see what other nonsense they can come up with.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Bulls and bears have been disagreeing on Tesla’s future. Disagreement is natural, we all are trying to estimate and nobody really knows. I will give a mental model that I use that models what has happened this quarter and what it says about the past and the future.
7 years ago we didn’t know how well Tesla would execute on manufacturing. Basically we were guessing on a probability distrubution. Let’s simplify it into:
A) Tesla is below average at manufacturing
B) Tesla is average at manufacturing
C) Tesla is a lot better than average at manufacturing
D) Tesla is a unicorn at manufacturing
A bear in 2015 might have guesstimated A: 70%, B: 28%, C 1%, D 1%.
A bull in 2015 might have guesstimated A: 10%, B 20%, C 60%, D 10%.
I remember when Tesla showed the blue print of Gigafactory and said they are designing the factory like people design silicon chips. And Elon said that in the long run Tesla‘s greatest advantage will be manufacturing. And at the end of battery day, Tesla engineer Turner said that people need to know that the growth is real and suppliers need to grow with them. Imo that’s the most important statement of all Tesla‘s talks. Watch it again at 2:09:50:
A lot of us wanted to believe this, but we probably only thought it was a 10-30% chance that it was true, it was just too crazy. Many years later we know have data, it’s time to update our mental distribution, our posterior likelihood distribution. So where are we at now? Consistenly they have beaten expectations, every time they did we should have shifted our distribution to the right. By now it’s probably more like
A) 1%, B 4%, C 15%, D 80%
Over the last 5 years Tesla has had a really tough time with Model 3 ramp struggles, with Covid, with chip shortages, with battery shortages etc. Yet they have beaten expectations. They clearly are the unicorn. What they said in past was probably mostly true. Now we need to fully believe everything that this implies.
When Tesla said 20M/year 2030, they were not joking. This is their target, to reach it they will aim higher just in case something goes wrong. But at this stage their error rate in manufacturing planning is falling not unlike their error rate in FSD. And they have the capital and they are not intending to not use it or give dividends. So what are they gonna do? I think next earnings Elon will present their new plan and I think they will go big. Announce that they want to build more factories and cities should send invitations. Announce new projects like the Tesla Bot, but for other areas such as boats and planes and ask people to send in resumes.
My previous estimate for 2022 was 1555555 cars. With this new insane blowout numbers, I need to update both my current rate and my growth projection as the company is better than I thought. I now think 2022 will be 1777777. They are a different company than I thought and I need to take that into consideration.
Imo go back to your previous beliefs and see what statements Elon and Tesla made that you discarded. Statements that with today’s numbers now actually makes sense. And then see what that will imply about the future. Because you need to start believing in them!
7 years ago we didn’t know how well Tesla would execute on manufacturing. Basically we were guessing on a probability distrubution. Let’s simplify it into:
A) Tesla is below average at manufacturing
B) Tesla is average at manufacturing
C) Tesla is a lot better than average at manufacturing
D) Tesla is a unicorn at manufacturing
A bear in 2015 might have guesstimated A: 70%, B: 28%, C 1%, D 1%.
A bull in 2015 might have guesstimated A: 10%, B 20%, C 60%, D 10%.
I remember when Tesla showed the blue print of Gigafactory and said they are designing the factory like people design silicon chips. And Elon said that in the long run Tesla‘s greatest advantage will be manufacturing. And at the end of battery day, Tesla engineer Turner said that people need to know that the growth is real and suppliers need to grow with them. Imo that’s the most important statement of all Tesla‘s talks. Watch it again at 2:09:50:
A lot of us wanted to believe this, but we probably only thought it was a 10-30% chance that it was true, it was just too crazy. Many years later we know have data, it’s time to update our mental distribution, our posterior likelihood distribution. So where are we at now? Consistenly they have beaten expectations, every time they did we should have shifted our distribution to the right. By now it’s probably more like
A) 1%, B 4%, C 15%, D 80%
Over the last 5 years Tesla has had a really tough time with Model 3 ramp struggles, with Covid, with chip shortages, with battery shortages etc. Yet they have beaten expectations. They clearly are the unicorn. What they said in past was probably mostly true. Now we need to fully believe everything that this implies.
When Tesla said 20M/year 2030, they were not joking. This is their target, to reach it they will aim higher just in case something goes wrong. But at this stage their error rate in manufacturing planning is falling not unlike their error rate in FSD. And they have the capital and they are not intending to not use it or give dividends. So what are they gonna do? I think next earnings Elon will present their new plan and I think they will go big. Announce that they want to build more factories and cities should send invitations. Announce new projects like the Tesla Bot, but for other areas such as boats and planes and ask people to send in resumes.
My previous estimate for 2022 was 1555555 cars. With this new insane blowout numbers, I need to update both my current rate and my growth projection as the company is better than I thought. I now think 2022 will be 1777777. They are a different company than I thought and I need to take that into consideration.
Imo go back to your previous beliefs and see what statements Elon and Tesla made that you discarded. Statements that with today’s numbers now actually makes sense. And then see what that will imply about the future. Because you need to start believing in them!
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Tesla tends to get 10X growth in about 5 years. For example. 50k in 2015 -> 500k in 2020. So 5M in 2025?Here's an updated chart using the latest data. This trendline predicts 4M vehicles delivered in 2024
View attachment 751294
View attachment 751296
The SUN, ah? This is even worse than putting GJ "research" on TV. Not terribly worried about that journalistic poetry.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Tesla did all this with only "wet" battery electrode manufacturing. Wet slurry, drying time, massive machinery, and battery supply constraints. And they still managed it with other parts shortages and pandemic interference on the staffing side as well as perhaps customer demand (maybe less so on the latter).
When Tesla switches to their DBE machinery and making their own cells, and all the other improvements in battery supply, the output, product deliveries (vehicles and energy storage), revenues and profits are going to be nuts
Obviously the kind of thing FUDsters will omit. But do the analysts understand this?
When Tesla switches to their DBE machinery and making their own cells, and all the other improvements in battery supply, the output, product deliveries (vehicles and energy storage), revenues and profits are going to be nuts
Obviously the kind of thing FUDsters will omit. But do the analysts understand this?
When Tesla switches to their DBE machinery and making their own cells … revenues and profits are going to be nuts
Obviously the kind of thing FUDsters will omit. But do the analysts understand this?
Nope
The shallow understanding of analysts never ceases to amaze me. Hell, they don’t even seem to appreciate that Tesla’s two massive new factories will increase their production capacity
There are a few exceptions out there but the average analyst’s analysis is utterly shameful
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's nothing. I drove an ICE car for a week and almost took it in for an oil change. Fortunately, I postponed it another week.
On the other hand, they created the smokescreen that allowed me to gobble up cheap shares in 2018…
tomorrowman
Member
Keeping it short term, having observed the step change in output from Shanghai in December and continued Freemont S/X ramp Tesla seem to have a capacity to produce 350K cars in Q1 (1.4M annualised) without factoring in further capacity increases at the existing factories or the new factories.
Could be wrong here but even a conservative estimate (150K each from Berlin & Freemont and no further capacity increases to existing factories) we are sitting on 1.7M for 2022.
Biggest risk is German environmental groups aka German auto further delaying Berlin, even then I would not put it past Giga Texas to ramp quicker by way of compensation.
Mind blowing
Could be wrong here but even a conservative estimate (150K each from Berlin & Freemont and no further capacity increases to existing factories) we are sitting on 1.7M for 2022.
Biggest risk is German environmental groups aka German auto further delaying Berlin, even then I would not put it past Giga Texas to ramp quicker by way of compensation.
Mind blowing
jhm
Well-Known Member
CLICKBATE GOLD!!!
"Despondent Tesla driver, forced to rent regular car, narrowly escapes death in garage, running out of gas"
Drumheller
Active Member
At the end of last year, I did a simple table of projecting end of year stock price from 2020 through 2030 if it grew 50% per year and 66% per year.
If my numbers are correct, tsla closed 2020 at $705.67. 50% growth would have been $1,058.51. Tsla closed 2021 at $1,056.78
If the 50% continues each year, 2030 ends above $40,000 per share.
If my numbers are correct, tsla closed 2020 at $705.67. 50% growth would have been $1,058.51. Tsla closed 2021 at $1,056.78
If the 50% continues each year, 2030 ends above $40,000 per share.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
What may be more amazing than the 308k deliveries is that the New York Jets have a lead over Tom Brady at the start of the 4th Qtr.
So I'm limited to updating the spreadsheet during commercials
Bah!
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is likely a low estimate for Shanghai. Their recently announced investment in production expansion, due to be complete in April 2022, is for 1.2M units per year. So if they have that 100k/mth run rate for the last 8 mths of the year, that's already 800K for Shanghai.
Further, their run rate exiting 2021-Q4 is at least 67k/mth so you could easily estimate 250k for Jan-Apr (even with the break for Chinese New Year / Spring Festival).
I think 1.0M+ units is a better estimate for Giga Shanghai production in 2022.
Cheers! #PREDICT
tomorrowman
Member
The current stock price factors in future growth so when the market begins to detect the end game the price will stabilize.
I struggle currently to see the price getting over $4,000 (ignoring inflation adjustment), which to be fair would make it the most valuable company on the planet by a massive margin.
Happy for future developments to prove me wrong though
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
I
Depending on the success of Tesla's AI endeavors, $40,000 per share in 2030 isn't unreasonable.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Any AI which adds $1-5T to your valuation models will not be sharing dividends with humans. That's just obvious.
BitJam
Active Member
Thunderbirds are GO!
FABS! (Fremont, Austin, Berlin, Shanghai)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not likely 4680s for TE/Megapack. Those will likely be CATL LFP, at half the price per KWh, and 5x the lifetime, but with equal power ratings. LFP is the ideal chemistry for TE stationary products, and the last of the LFP patents in N. America come off in April 2022.
TSLA may eventually make their own LFP 4680s, but that will be years down the road, AND likely only if there is insufficient price competition in the market for LFP cells. Right now, that doesn't look like it's going to be a problem, and Tesla needs all the nickel it can get for it's long range vehicle products, and for giga-castings (nickel is a component of Tesla's special alloy used for the giga-press)
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Q4 represented a 28% increase in unit values QoQ. That from the SAME asset base and factory costs as prior quarter. Q3 saw gross auto margins of 30.5%. I would not be shocked to see a mid 30s gross margin print this quarter. All that to say, you’re being very conservative
And let’s not forget our trust deferred tax asset. This is about to get VERY interesting.
Also, let's not forget Elon's final outstanding tranche from the 2012 CEO compensation plan. To unlock itt requires a 30% gross margin for a full year. That means Tesla will move mountains and shift continents to get that done by Aug 2022. It's a billion bucks or more for Elon.
I expect >30% margins in 21-Q4, 22-Q1 and 22-Q2. Its a simple heuristic, but just watch!
Cheers!
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