Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Favguy]

I could have sworn you left a 1 off your number but you didn’t. What a complete joke. And those people get paid for these opinions?

Oh yes, they get paid very well, by big fossil interests, lol!!

 

[Favguy]

I upgrade my 01/03 price target to $1200

Well, that's infinitely more useful than JPM's number.

 

[UCF3]

He states that they could claim 80% in Q4 and then the remaining 20% in Q1, before having to pay massive taxes going forward. I think this lines up perfectly with Tesla moving their headquarters to Texas in Q4. It will both reduce the amount of tax they will have to pay as well stick it to the politician(s) in California who told him to F off.

If Tesla pays tax to California using the “single sales factor” method of apportionment, which is likely, then moving the headquarters to Texas doesn’t actually reduce anything on income taxes.

 

[brantse]

Do we think the big move will stick this time, or will we see another big run up by retail FOMO, only to get completely tamped down later in the day, like so many excellent P&D reports in the past. It has always seemed like the big boys are reluctant to buy in before they see the ER numbers.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Do we think the big move will stick this time, or will we see another big run up by retail FOMO, only to get completely tamped down later in the day, like so many excellent P&D reports in the past. It has always seemed like the big boys are reluctant to buy in before they see the ER numbers.

There isn't a lot of reason to wait for ER numbers when you beat this big. Everyone knows at this point earnings will be a monster beat too.

Also retail can't trade PM, so this big move is entirely big boys right now.

 

[CLK350]

Do we think the big move will stick this time, or will we see another big run up by retail FOMO, only to get completely tamped down later in the day, like so many excellent P&D reports in the past. It has always seemed like the big boys are reluctant to buy in before they see the ER numbers.

If I were the FUD I would certainly plunge the SP momentarily to shake some more $ out of the uninformed typical "investors" who are really wannabe traders. Great for those with deep enough pockets to intra day trade the waves - skimming profits off the FUD and HFT (high frequency traders) and algos

So there will be a sharp upswing, some will buy in near the peak (which will only be known after the fact of course) and be taken to the cleaners.

TL ; DR H.O.D.L - unless you are well versed in that other thread that is

 

[torifile]

There isn't a lot of reason to wait for ER numbers when you beat this big. Everyone knows at this point earnings will be a monster beat too.

Also retail can't trade PM, so this big move is entirely big boys right now.

That’s not true. I can trade pre-market with TD Ameritrade. I just have to make sure to select extended hours in my order.

 

[brantse]

I believe premarket for most retail brokers opens at 7 AM, EST. It's true that the move we've seen already isn't due to retail directly, but I always thought that some HFT funds may front run in premarket due to the orders that they see coming in.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla tends to get 10X growth in about 5 years. For example. 50k in 2015 -> 500k in 2020. So 5M in 2025?

50m in 2030?

 

[nativewolf]

A significant portion of the Industrial energy consumption bucket is for heavy mobile machinery that I was including in a broader definition of transport, and that bumps it up from 24% to higher. I was including basically any self-powered motorized machine on wheels: Forklifts, dump trucks, backhoes, excavators, tractors, bulldozers, asphalt rollers, tree harvesters, pile drivers, rototillers, cherrypickers, etc.

Additionally I think increased efficiency and lower cost of ownership of EVs compared to ICEVs will result in greater quantity of transport miles demanded per capita. I think autonomous driving and Boring Co tunnel networks will multiply this increase even more. (This is for 2035 and beyond).

On the other hand, we will probably want more than 24 hours of storage for the grid.

In any case, energy consumption for all categories is likely to increase as the cost decreases. Supply and Demand 101.

We are buyers of this sort of industrial equipment and are pleased that we see some nascent attempts to electrify small farm tractors, lawn mowers, chainsaws, and even a skidsteer (Slovakian company).

However, it is going to be hard to electrify at scale so for modeling I would use the light vehicle market space and not include industrial. Take our forestry equipment. We work and park sometimes miles from a powerline and we move every month, depending on market forces. We might use 100 gallons of diesel a day per machine and we bring that to them in a F350 with a fuel transfer tank. Not the thread for detailed problem analysis but its a real problem when thinking of electrifying.

If Tesla, or anyone, could realistically derive a solution whereby we could replace diesel in a heavy equipment application it would significantly increase the addressable market space. I think farm tractors would be an application especially now that LiFe are coming. Farm tractors generally go to a barn or equipment yard every evening like cars. Anyway from an investment perspective, Tesla, in it's current offering is clearly focused on the light vehicle space and for Tesla investors I'd model just the light vehicle space and focus on the energy savings there.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Bloomberg consensus deliveries will probably see some change. That 2023 number looks feasible for 2022.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477806325178454018

Interesting that the consensus estimates are predicting 30% margins straight through to 2030. That's more bullish that I would expect from the average analyst.

 

[nativewolf]

Tesla already is the most valuable company on the planet by a massive margin, but the inhabitants of the planet are mostly too clueless to understand this yet.

What Tesla has guided for already implies a $4,000ish valuation just on selling cars, trucks and vans.

By 2030 this could happen (2022 dollars, actual would have inflation):
20 million annual production
$15 k gross profit per car on just the hardware and simple software upgrades, no FSD
$30 B operating expenditures
20% tax
= $200-250 B annual earnings, enough to justify $4,000 share price at about 20x P/E if no further growth expected.

Love the enthusiasm but when Tesla makes 20 million cars a huge percent will be selling for much lower prices than the current 50k or so. Are you considering the tremendous slide in average price when looking at 15k profit/car?

 

[Artful Dodger]

SP keeps marching up in the pre-Market:

6:35 AM EST​

$1,137.80 +81.02 (+7.67%)​

Volume:​

435,520​

 

[Nolimits]

+7.69% already. Looks like the return of the wild swings again boys and girls. ATH today?

Edit* You beat me to it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like Ford stealerships dealers won't be getting rich after all:

Leaked Ford dealer playbook reveals F-150 Lightning deliveries delayed to Summer 2022 [Update]

A leaked Ford dealer playbook that is intended to prepare dealerships for the order bank opening for the F-150 Lightning reveals the electric truck may arrive later than planned. UPDATE Jan 3 3:20pm PST: New […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Who wants to bet Cybertruck ships more volume in 2022 than E-150? Gonna be close out of the gate.

Cheers!

 

[H Mak]

I struggle currently to see the price getting over $4,000 (ignoring inflation adjustment), which to be fair would make it the most valuable company on the planet by a massive margin.

I hate to see a fellow TMC'er struggle so I'll help you, using a few numbers plucked from thin air.

Deliveries: 20m
ASP: $50K
= Revenue: 1T
Op Margin: 20%
PE: 50
= Market Cap: 10T
Number of shares: 1.1Bn
= Share Price: $9,091

Now you can debate any one of those numbers, I accept that, and this is not a prediction, but it demonstrates the possibility of the share price hitting > $9K by 2030.

I notice in a later post you said an ASP of $50k can not be maintained. That's a fair point but even with an ASP of say $40K, you get a share price of $7,273.

And of course, this is cars only. As we know there's more to the story than just cars.

It's true, a share price at those levels does seem crazy today and a lot has to go right, but the numbers don't lie, they simply demonstrate what is possible.

 

[MartinAustin]

Looks like Ford stealerships dealers won't be getting rich after all:

Leaked Ford dealer playbook reveals F-150 Lightning deliveries delayed to Summer 2022 [Update]

A leaked Ford dealer playbook that is intended to prepare dealerships for the order bank opening for the F-150 Lightning reveals the electric truck may arrive later than planned. UPDATE Jan 3 3:20pm PST: New […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Who wants to bet Cybertruck ships more volume in 2022 than E-150? Gonna be close out of the gate.

Cheers!

I'm guessing it will be a repeat of the Chevy Bolt, which garnered tons of press attention and awards and "beat the Model 3 to market"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Could somebody kindly post Max-Pain and a screenshot of the "Open Interest" chart from this link? (out now at 7 am ET).

TSLA Open Interest, Volume and Max Pain​

Paging @SOULPEDL or anybody who reads this first. TIA.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla already is the most valuable company on the planet by a massive margin, but the inhabitants of the planet are mostly too clueless to understand this yet.

What Tesla has guided for already implies a $4,000ish valuation just on selling cars, trucks and vans.

By 2030 this could happen (2022 dollars, actual would have inflation):
20 million annual production
$15 k gross profit per car on just the hardware and simple software upgrades, no FSD
$30 B operating expenditures
20% tax
= $200-250 B annual earnings, enough to justify $4,000 share price at about 20x P/E if no further growth expected.

Just to be clear on that last sentence, a rational valuation for a company with no expected growth would be a P/E of 6-10 depending upon the economic climate. Of course, I can't imagine the company we call Tesla being associated with no growth so...

I'll add that the only time I think p/e is a good metric to use when valuing a company is when they have very low expected growth.

 

[CLK350]

Note (recall) the huge advantage, hard to reproduce quickly and which explains the huge numbers surprise is that the Giga Factories going forward are 3D - meaning they can also be so much more efficient as they eliminate the need for forklifts for example (replaced by faster vertical conveyor belts aka elevators)

Same thing that is happening with Moore's law, the next gen VTFET computer chips now are being built in 3D

Elon *is* playing 3D chess in more ways than people understand - 12/9 WAS the key announcement, but of course we missed the engineering clues RIGHT in front of our eyes.

So maybe forget about linear, geometric growth .. make it exponential? and re financials - stop looking at the numbers view of things, and go back to the basics of money making: production profits and productivity

Get the details/ recap there, kudos to @Gigapress for noticing this first here Brian's 12/9 YouTube Shanghai video

...

... / snip

abandon the complicated design of a factory

the four major vehicle processes of stamping, welding, coating, and assembly form a large, single workshop

This greatly shortens the logistics path between each process

This improves operating efficiency

Secondly, the plant's configuration allows full use of vertical space, benefiting from the multi-story design

to maximize space utilization

The automated logistics system transports components by elevators and conveyor belts,

which reduces manual handling. The efficient travel path can be measured in cubic meters.

It can be said that the innovation of the factory itself provides rich soil for manufacturing innovation

Edit: links added, typo corrected