Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

Looks like Ford stealerships dealers won't be getting rich after all:

Leaked Ford dealer playbook reveals F-150 Lightning deliveries delayed to Summer 2022 [Update]

A leaked Ford dealer playbook that is intended to prepare dealerships for the order bank opening for the F-150 Lightning reveals the electric truck may arrive later than planned. UPDATE Jan 3 3:20pm PST: New […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Who wants to bet Cybertruck ships more volume in 2022 than E-150? Gonna be close out of the gate.

Cheers!

If so it would be the first time that a legacy auto maker has managed to address a market space as rapidly as Tesla. Though I appreciate the work Ford is doing and I see some urgency there...I doubt they keep up with Tesla. However, Tesla has a battery problem. Will Ford be able to allocate enough battery capacity to the truck in 2022 to get it going? Maybe so. That's the real question. Frankly Ford continues to impress.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I notice in a later post you said an ASP of $50k can not be maintained. That's a fair point but even with an ASP of say $40K, you get a share price of $7,273.

I actually don't agree with this: I think the ASP per car will be maintained at $50K. And that's because 10 M of those 20 M cars will be Model 1 / Robotaxis and will of neccessity include FSD at $35K (for arguement's sake). Throw in $15K for the hdw for this city hauler, and that's $50K right there but with a gross margin of 70%.

Further, I expect Tesla to buy around half of their production for their own TN service, selling just enough Robotaxi's to fleet operators to pay the upfront costs of building the fleet. The ROI will be huge, with a 10-yr life expectancy and over $50/yr avg revenue.

TL;dr Don't worry about declining ASPs... Robotaxi fixes everything, and takes Tesla to a new level of profitability.

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

I agree. I am beginning to think Elon is a better talent recruiter than engineer. The team he has assembled has managed a spectacular accomplishment.

Managing 87% growth in production during Covid, supply chain constraints, no rebate incentives (US), no advertising and while simultaneously building 2 new factories on different continents. Amazing!

The plan is not to herd the cats, but to let them go their own directions and use the successes while learning from the failures.

 

[StealthP3D]

Here come the upgrades!!

JPM is first! They've just raised their PT from $250 to $295

For the math-challenged:

That's an upgrade of over 18% and they still have about 300% more to go! At least they are only 18 months behind the people valuing this with real money on the line!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm guessing it will be a repeat of the Chevy Bolt, which garnered tons of press attention and awards and "beat the Model 3 to market"

Yes, and now that every single "Bolt" ever produced has been recalled for faulty battery packs, its more of an "out and back" race...

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

For the math-challenged:

That's an upgrade of over 18% and they still have about 300% more to go! At least they are only 18 months behind the people valuing this with real money on the line!

What's the forward PE on a $295 target.....17? With 87% growth. Lol

 

[nativewolf]

I actually don't agree with this: I think the ASP per car will be maintained at $50K. And that's because 10 M of those 20 M cars will be Model 1 / Robotaxis and will of neccessity include FSD at $35K (for arguement's sake). Throw in $15K for the hdw for this city hauler, and that's $50K right there but with a gross margin of 70%.

Further, I expect Tesla to buy around half of their production for their own TN service, selling just enough Robotaxi's to fleet operators to pay the upfront costs of building the fleet. The ROI will be huge, with a 10-yr life expectancy and over $50/yr avg revenue.

TL;dr Don't worry about declining ASPs... Robotaxi fixes everything, and takes Tesla to a new level of profitability.

Cheers!

that would assume that by 2026 or so they have solved FSD. I'm in agreement on some aspects of what you are saying but given the history on FSD that may be ambitious. That would give them only 2-3 years to solve the non technical but very challenging regulatory hurdles. Those hurdles don't exist because the cars don't exist. Then they with have a market acceptance kind of issue. Then lots of service issues (who's cleaning the cars and don't tell me robots- cleaned a car where someone has vomited or used as a portable toilet) and Tesla service is not a strength. That requires a completely different culture. Go visit enterprise local office and see the sales folks pickup a bucket and rags and get to work cleaning if a customer is waiting. That's the culture. Social media of nasty robotaxis will be a killer. Robotaxis are not something where you'll flip a switch and make profit. Personally I think, culturally, that Tesla has work to do to launch a successful service business.

 

[jbcarioca]

Not likely 4680s for TE/Megapack. Those will likely be CATL LFP, at half the price per KWh, and 5x the lifetime, but with equal power ratings. LFP is the ideal chemistry for TE stationary products, and the last of the LFP patents in N. America come off in April 2022.

TSLA may eventually make their own LFP 4680s, but that will be years down the road, AND likely only if there is insufficient price competition in the market for LFP cells. Right now, that doesn't look like it's going to be a problem, and Tesla needs all the nickel it can get for it's long range vehicle products, and for giga-castings (nickel is a component of Tesla's special alloy used for the giga-press)

Cheers!

There is still another strong possibility. CATL could produce 4680's and packs at their new factory adjacent to GigaShanghai.
I will be surprised if they do NOT do that. Probably most of the benefits of the Tesla 4680 tablets design accrue regardless of chemistry.
Specifically, improved heat dissipation, less internal resistance, more robust physical structure, higher charge rates.

Then CATL does a significant volume of cell-to-pack now. Given the current high collaboration between CATL and Tesla It seems obvious that with
CATL 4680-to-pack the assembly line for Tesla will be more efficient because there will be a single structural pack, eliminating assembly complexity.

I am not predicting that. I am not qualified to do anything like that. I simply observe the radical simplification in vehicle assembly already evident with GigaPresses as a stellar example. Why would they NOT have structural packs in identical physical dimensions to accommodate any battery chemistry at all?

Just imagine such an approach in cost terms. Then think about electrical, BMS, and assembly cost savings with commensurate improved quality control.
It seems to me we are desperately trying to preserve historical norms while ignoring First Principles. There is no logical reason to have multiple from factors once there is sufficient supply. Remember there will be Fremont, Gruneheide, Austin, Sparks, Shanghai and CATL Shanghai within the next year or so. Will those have different form factors? Probably the legacy Sparks lines may continue, but they'll change too. We already have intimations that CATL, LG and Panasonic are testing 4680 solutions, so all the major suppliers will change as Tesla model evolution continues.

Anyone caring to make a wager that by 2023 we'll see all Tesla models with 4680's? Logically TE will be there too, maybe even simultaneously.

Obviously pouches will continue for the ICE designers who adore the ease of putting them in former exhaust, transmission and engine bays. LG, SK etc will still provide them. Every manufacturer will be happy to set up to support Tesla specifications, probably even Northvolt and other new ones will do that if they can.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I hate to see a fellow TMC'er struggle so I'll help you, using a few numbers plucked from thin air.

Deliveries: 20m
ASP: $50K
= Revenue: 1T
Op Margin: 20%
PE: 50
= Market Cap: 10T
Number of shares: 1.1Bn
= Share Price: $9,091

Now you can debate any one of those numbers, I accept that, and this is not a prediction, but it demonstrates the possibility of the share price hitting > $9K by 2030.

I notice in a later post you said an ASP of $50k can not be maintained. That's a fair point but even with an ASP of say $40K, you get a share price of $7,273.

And of course, this is cars only. As we know there's more to the story than just cars.

It's true, a share price at those levels does seem crazy today and a lot has to go right, but the numbers don't lie, they simply demonstrate what is possible.

One important thing you missed is dilution. You assume the number of shares in 2030 will still be 1.1 billion. But it won't. Tesla will probably not need to issue shares to raise money, but it will need to issue a lot of them to reward its management and other employees. On 30 September 2021 there were 1.123 billion shares, ten years earlier, on 30 September 2011, there were only 0.52 billion. During the last three years alone the number of shares increased by 270 million. So in 2030 there could be 1.5 billion or even 2 billion shares. What could save us though is Tesla starting a share buyback program.

 

[UCF3]

Anyone caring to make a wager that by 2023 we'll see all Tesla models with 4680's? Logically TE will be there too, maybe even simultaneously.
.

I don’t see why Tesla would give up the 18650 capacity for Model X and S that quickly. They just redesigned those two and I expect them to keep using 18650 for years

 

[HG Wells]

A meer 7% increase ?
I would have thought 10-12 % a more appropriate number.

 

[thesmokingman]

That's a lot for pre-market.

 

[StealthP3D]

If so it would be the first time that a legacy auto maker has managed to address a market space as rapidly as Tesla. Though I appreciate the work Ford is doing and I see some urgency there...I doubt they keep up with Tesla. However, Tesla has a battery problem. Will Ford be able to allocate enough battery capacity to the truck in 2022 to get it going? Maybe so. That's the real question. Frankly Ford continues to impress.

Ford revealed the electric F-150 at 2008 SEMA. Bringing it to market 14 years later is not anybody's definition of "rapid", it shows that they sat on their butts for an entire decade while Tesla was actively working to bring the technology to market.

I find it curious that you identify Tesla as the one with a "battery problem" while Ford just needs to be to "allocate enough battery capacity". The only manner in which Ford impresses is when comparing them to GM. If you want to know what it means to be impressive, look at Tesla, not Ford.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

View attachment 751370

A meer 7% increase ?
I would have thought 10-12 % a more appropriate number.

7% is merely the frontrunning of orders that kick in both at 8am and 9:30am.

 

[StealthP3D]

that would assume that by 2026 or so they have solved FSD. I'm in agreement on some aspects of what you are saying but given the history on FSD that may be ambitious. That would give them only 2-3 years to solve the non technical but very challenging regulatory hurdles. Those hurdles don't exist because the cars don't exist. Then they with have a market acceptance kind of issue. Then lots of service issues (who's cleaning the cars and don't tell me robots- cleaned a car where someone has vomited or used as a portable toilet) and Tesla service is not a strength. That requires a completely different culture. Go visit enterprise local office and see the sales folks pickup a bucket and rags and get to work cleaning if a customer is waiting. That's the culture. Social media of nasty robotaxis will be a killer. Robotaxis are not something where you'll flip a switch and make profit. Personally I think, culturally, that Tesla has work to do to launch a successful service business.

Thanks for bringing us back to reality with a slap in the face. You're right, the fact that actual "work" remains to be done to accomplish anything makes me realize maybe Tesla is not the right fit for this job. Tesla workers are better at dreaming than actually getting anything done!

/s

This thread has a long history of being told that the cleaning of robo-taxis is a difficult problem to solve. We are accustomed to being told things can't be done. We listen to the objections, consider them briefly and then dismiss them as an easy problem to solve. If you want to get good at solving problems, emulate the culture at Tesla. They are accustomed at looking at the paths around the problem. You will find there are many ways to skin a cat and a problem that looks insurmountable is rarely ever that as long as it doesn't violate the laws of physics.

 

[Pezpunk]

There isn't a lot of reason to wait for ER numbers when you beat this big. Everyone knows at this point earnings will be a monster beat too.

Also retail can't trade PM, so this big move is entirely big boys right now.

Your analysis is contradicted by history — in past blowout quarters, we’ve almost always seen huge pre-market run-ups that get completely bled off over the course of the regular trading day.

Not a prediction, just an observation.

 

[ZeApelido]

300K+ amazing quarter and of course Gordon is trying to find the downside.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477990210789011458

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not likely 4680s for TE/Megapack. Those will likely be CATL LFP, at half the price per KWh, and 5x the lifetime, but with equal power ratings. LFP is the ideal chemistry for TE stationary products, and the last of the LFP patents in N. America come off in April 2022.

TSLA may eventually make their own LFP 4680s, but that will be years down the road, AND likely only if there is insufficient price competition in the market for LFP cells. Right now, that doesn't look like it's going to be a problem, and Tesla needs all the nickel it can get for it's long range vehicle products, and for giga-castings (nickel is a component of Tesla's special alloy used for the giga-press)

Cheers!

I feel that Tesla would likely build some LFP 4680s even if there is plenty of market supply. It might be only (e.g. 10%) of the needed volume as an insurance policy against political change or market collusion - but it wouldn't be wise to put themselves in a position where they didn't have the in-house practical experience to rapidly scale LFPs should they need to.

 

[Unpilot]

Love the "it can't be done" crowd.

They along with the "it will take a much longer time" crowd have made me a lot of money.

 

[winfield100]

One important thing you missed is dilution. You assume the number of shares in 2030 will still be 1.1 bn. But it won't. Tesla will probably not need to issue shares to raise money, but it will need to issue a lot of them to reward its staff and employees. On 30 September 2021 there were 1.123 bn shares, ten years earlier, on 30 September 2011, there were only 0.52 bn. During the last three years alone the number of shares increased by 270 million. So in 2030 there could be 1.5 bn or even 2 bn shares. What could save us though is Tesla starting a share buyback program.

are you including the 101 million shares to Elon in the next 12 tranches? (2018 - 2028)

SEC FORM 4