Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tenable]

Exactly! I have a Trump neighbor (get along sort of) who I confirmed watches Fox only - classic type. He's got 2 newer Corvettes (one has >500HP) and so he is the least likely to want a Tesla. I still asked him if he has any plans to get a Tesla, then some small talk. I've gotta get him in the car, this guy knows handling so it will sell on that alone for him.

So after reading your statement, maybe I should be sensitive to his resistance of global warming etc. Don't make it about that at all... tell him "forget that this is electric, try it... the low CG makes steering like nothing on this planet." This approach diffuses the whole political narrative and jumps right to the heart of what he likes! Kinda like that car commercial that hid the labels, asked what they thought it was worth, then voila, it's a Chevy!

Just a passing OT Sunday thought...

Smart! With the exception of the commercials. The issue with those is.. well the cars look like garbage chevys. Brand badges weren’t the issue.

 

[KarenRei]

Boca Chica airspace reserved for the same time Monday through Wednesday:

SpaceX BFS - Phase 1 - StarHopper - Photos and Updates

Seemed to be a WDR on Friday. Would be lovely to get a hold-down test in the news, hopefully with some slick video

 

[Fact Checking]

Didn't the SEC already state in writing they don't want an evidentiary hearing? May just be Elon's attorneys that haven't decided since they haven't put anything in writing.

Yes, the SEC said in their reply brief that they don't want/need an evidentiary hearing.

But Elon's team in their sur-reply submitted a number of new pieces of evidence, which allows the SEC to again file their thoughts on this topic by the 26th.

 

[dc_h]

How did the bear raid bankrupt solar city? You mean by making the stock worthless, which kept them from being able to do another successful stock offering for more cash for working capital? Sorry stupid question, I'm new to investing.

They blocked their access to capital. SC had long term assets and short term cash needs. We don’t have the books, but the contracts are probably cash flow positive over the long run. Part of the story was that short term rates were about to shoot up and that would reduce the present value of the long term solar leases. Rates haven’t gone up much and Tesla can just milk the leases and focus on cash sales going forward. The 20 year risk of these solar assets is probably lower then a lot of Permian shale resources.

 

[Fact Checking]

As noted previously, that doesn't preclude an earlier market reaction in the (IMHO unlikely, but possible) event that the SEC moves to dismiss its own case.

The SEC could indeed do that under the pretense that their current lead lawyer (Sheryl Crumpton) wasn't on Cc: for those emails that show the SEC accepting Tesla's edits to the settlement.

But it's unclear to me how convinced they are about their own "materialness" arguments. Is it just part of pressure tactics, or did the SEC drink their own Kool-Aid? If they think they can convince the judge then they could be shooting for a contempt hearing in the hope of Elon saying something contradictory there, or at least the judge admonishing Elon for the tweets, before dismissing the case. They could still spin that as a "win".

Are there any indications that the SEC wants to settle or drop their motion?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

There is a lot of anecdotal evidence of Tesla trying to generate as much revenue as humanly possible this quarter -- even going so far as to have that merchandise bonanza recently. The question is: is this to eke out a small surprise profit, or just make the loss as small as possible? Impossible to know.

Well, one thing is for sure. Either way the FUD will flow. If they're a little short then the headlines will be "Tesla can't sustain profitability despite abusive practices with employees." If they do make a profit it will be "Tesla can only make money off the abusive misuse of employees. Musk only cares about profits, not his employees."

Grab a sandwich, sit back and enjoy the show. We all know they are on the right path and getting stronger by the day. Hey, look at it this way, it's more entertaining than any of the garbage on TV these days! lol!

Dan

 

[Beltsbear]

Married filing jointly would have a 3.5k fed tax if the income after deductions etc is about $30k or about $55k to $60k in pre-tax income.

Do people spend half their annual income on cars ?

This is pretty normal in the USA. And I would not fault a person earning $70k for purchasing a $37k sr+.

 

[brian45011]

I don't know. But M3 battery is too deeply integrated to be added post-hoc. S&X can be shipped sans battery, for 10% savings on auto tariff. M3 does not qualify for that.

Were the S&Xs shipped without packs or just without wheels & tires to avoid/reduce the EU tariffs? Were S&Xs on ROROs in 1Q19?

 

[ZachF]

An interesting factoid to consider, If Tesla produces ~80k S&Xs at ~$100k and ~420k 3s at ~$50k each, that is $29 billion in cars.

The US produces 12 million motor vehicles a year, at an average price of $35k that is $420 billion in cars.

29 / 420 = 0.069

Therefor, when Tesla hits 500k/y production rate, Tesla will be about 7% of the entire US auto industry... Ten years ago they were a rounding error, and when the Y starts up they will easily pass 10%, And I think Tesla could easily account for over 15% of the US auto industry by as soon as 2021.

No longer small potatoes

 

[Menifeer]

Absolutely, also here are some other EV talking points for Trump supporter neighbors;

• "My car tops up the tank overnight in my garage, with gas prices of under $1 a gallon",
• "With this car I can finally show those Krauts how well a 100% American made muscle car accelerates",
• "Instant torque AWD in the winter, perfect for the upcoming Global Cooling",
• "Frunk for the handguns, trunk for the rifles. Titanium plating against landmines. Two independent motors for enhanced RPG resilience. No gas tank to explode. Satellite maps. This car is Prepper Heaven."
  
• "When I'm refilling this beast not a single dollar is going to the Middle East",
• "Trump owned a Tesla too but those librul wimps at the Secret Service couldn't keep up with him so they insisted on a Cadillac",
• "Driving a Tesla is the real MAGA: it Makes America Grin Again!",
• Finally show him this true historic photo of Donald Trump teaching Elon Musk how to make cars, how to land rockets and how to become a billionaire:
• 

My initial discussions with non-EV folk usually include a mention of portable electric drills.

I ask the person if they have one (they usually say "yes"). I mention that they likely use it and plug it in to recharge when finished. Pretty simple. I ask what routine maintenance is involved (they say "none").

Then I ask if they would consider buying a less expensive drill if it included a small gasoline engine & automatic transmission. I usually see an "are you crazy" look.

 

[1101011]

Talking about colours. Has anybody bought a plain black model 3, brought it to a quality paint shop and painted it a custom colour? Extra clear etc. Looked for a thread on this. Didn’t find one. Any down side to this,

First met Jason Hughes at the Strasburg VA supercharger- he was driving a wrapped Model S that was bumblebee yellow. Unique? Absolutely, and stunning.

 

[ZachF]

Regarding the numbers I posted above, it would be interesting to figure out what percentage level Tesla would have to pass to become the largest American automaker, at least in terms of value-added manufacturing in the US... My gut tells me ~20%.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ordered a Mercedes, WTF?

Yeah, I feel some people here have suspect ‘friends’. They might as well also own dogs.

 

[Lessmog]

Were the S&Xs shipped without packs or just without wheels & tires to avoid/reduce the EU tariffs? Were S&Xs on ROROs in 1Q19?

Honestly, IDK. Not on RoRo. ISTR that battery, wheels and motors were removed before transport, problably via containers. S (&X) had the battery pack below, rapidly exchangeable by 50 or 200 bolts in 100 seconds per robots, but that never really took on beyond a demonstration at one Supercharger. I think this rapid "refill" option was worth one or two extra ZEV credits at the time, so that was the driver. Twice as fast as filling an Audi on the live demo.

M3 has its pack much more embedded and not really removable without stripping the whole car. But S&X could be imported as "auto parts" at lower or zero tariff. AFAICT, flesh memory fading ...

 

[brian45011]

Anyway, the 'organic' cash generation ability of Tesla is more like $1.5b per quarter, not $1.2b - most of the rest are interest expenses that will melt away as Tesla deleverages and capex which is simply the cost of future expansion.

In 2H18, regulatory credits added $284 million to operating cash flow--that source decreases appreciably as international sales approach the historical percentage of deliveries.

The coupon rate on the just redeemed 2019 Convertible Notes was 0.25%--the ABL Credit Agreement is 1.00% plus LIBOR also (IIRC) the unused commitment in the ABL is 0.25%

 

[Lessmog]

Yeah, I feel some people here have suspect ‘friends’. They might as well also own dogs.

We need more cow bell!
Die Kuhen bellen:

 

[Singuy]

My guess: they'll start delivering all new cars after April 2 with HW3 by default, and they'll retrofit inventory cars.

This has a bit of an extra expense on inventory cars.

That will also make service centers busier, which could be why they stopped the annual checks - which would normally bring in the Model 3's delivered last year.

What are your thoughts on shipping hundreds of thousands of cars using Nvidia hardware and then scraping them just a few months later? They needed people for their neuro net or is Nvidia giving them a kickback? Seems to be millions spent on wasted hardware not to mention all that time for retrofiting.

 

[LordAstinus]

What are your thoughts on shipping hundreds of thousands of cars using Nvidia hardware and then scraping them just a few months later? They needed people for their neuro net or is Nvidia giving them a kickback? Seems to be millions spent on wasted hardware not to mention all that time for retrofiting.

Only FSD payers will be retrofitted. It's their money.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

First met Jason Hughes at the Strasburg VA supercharger- he was driving a wrapped Model S that was bumblebee yellow. Unique? Absolutely, and stunning.

Heh heh. Unique for sure.

I was thinking more along the lines of a nice wine burgundy. I don’t suppose we’ll see any colour additions soon.

 

[EVNow]

Then I ask if they would consider buying a less expensive drill if it included a small gasoline engine & automatic transmission. I usually see an "are you crazy" look.

In 2011 Renault made an ad based on this idea. It shows people using everyday items like shaver, hair dryer, photo copier, PC, blender, vending machine, toys, TV, credit card reader being fossil fueled.