1100-1200 given the current market volatility for the next 1-2 months is plenty fine with me. I actually think TSLA setting a very strong base around 1100-1200 means very good things for the 2nd half of 2022Right now, that sounds pretty good
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I own both HODL shares and LEAPs.
I don't use any technical rationale to pick which strikes to choose. Rather, I go out as far as I can (Jan 2024 is it currently) then look at premiums versus strike price and pick one (or more) that make sense to me. I'm pretty conservative and hate losing theta premiums. So I tend to choose DITM LEAPs.
Yashu (Hit That Bid YT) had Bradford Ferguson on his live stream today (it was great -- definitely watch it if you can) and Bradford was discussing the Jan 2024 c500 as possibly a good DITM LEAP to look at right now. Selling for around $585 when the SP was at $1,000, it's less than $100 of time premium for 2 years. He described it as basically a 4-5% interest per annum you would be paying for the increased leverage. I traded in 120 shares today to purchase two of these.
Since I think the probability that the SP is less than $1,100 by then is very low, I consider this a good way to increase exposure/leverage without taking on margins (which Bradford Ferguson also discussed).
Goes without saying, not advice. Heck, with my timing, it's probably good anti-advice.
I also do this at times that I feel the "spring" has been coiled and typically pick a strike that's about 50% of the current share price. The worst part of doing this is the spread on these calls. Often times, with a spread of about $7 or more, you'll want to use caution when placing the orders. I've often given away a few hundred dollars on a bad order. In the grand scheme, it's pennies, but still pays to be careful.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Is this the name of FoMoCo's new luxury EV model?
Sudre
Active Member
One thing I am looking for after earnings is what "THEY" have the media print. I have a feeling like others the PD is baked in. What will matter is the future out look. If THEY can spin this about Texas and Berlin being delayed, even by a day along with Cybertruck not coming until some time in 2023 it will be a good reason for THEM to drop TSLA further. It doesn't require a lot of shorting. It just requires slowing down the buyers... make the buyers hesitate. If few are buying less shorted shares are needed.
I mean obviously these huge delays mean the OEMs are going to catch up right? /s
As far as I am concerned, Tesla has a huge back log which tells them what trims people want the most. Texas and Berlin can crank out those cars and park them on the parking lot until permit approval. If the permit for Berlin gets delayed further I think the government will let them build more cars as "test" builds. When the gates are opened you will see an unprecedented wave of deliveries.
I am mixed about what I call Model Zero. If it is announced then THEY might print something alluding to Model 3&Y sales tanking because of the "cheaper version". I am thinking someone on the call is going to ask about it. I am hoping Elon sticks to the "enough on our plate" statement even tho I really want to hear about it.
I think we need to hear about the 4680 progress in a positive light.
I want an update on where the Semi is at. How many have made it out the door if any. (batteries)
Is the Roadster getting close? (batteries)
What's holding back Cybertruck? (can you guess.... batteries)
We need to see these vehicles before Model Zero can even think about getting in the queue for.... wait for it.... batteries.
If you can't tell I still think the most outstanding obstacle is batteries. The second is probably actual humans to design, build, deliver.
If 4680 issues are resolved then it's on.
If a good path forward is evident and Macros are at a point to reverse this might be more like a canon than a coiled spring. Between now and then tho there isn't much to bring any light since Tesla is at the hush moment before earning. We are at the mercy of the hedgies and the whimsy of wall street. Hopefully we get a little bounce tomorrow to take this doom and gloom off. Options look like above $1000 is wanted this week but realistically THEY don't mind if it falls below. Those 1000 strike Puts will hurt but if they can churn between 995 and 1000, THEY can roll and balance with Calls..... then let it drop.
I mean obviously these huge delays mean the OEMs are going to catch up right? /s
As far as I am concerned, Tesla has a huge back log which tells them what trims people want the most. Texas and Berlin can crank out those cars and park them on the parking lot until permit approval. If the permit for Berlin gets delayed further I think the government will let them build more cars as "test" builds. When the gates are opened you will see an unprecedented wave of deliveries.
I am mixed about what I call Model Zero. If it is announced then THEY might print something alluding to Model 3&Y sales tanking because of the "cheaper version". I am thinking someone on the call is going to ask about it. I am hoping Elon sticks to the "enough on our plate" statement even tho I really want to hear about it.
I think we need to hear about the 4680 progress in a positive light.
I want an update on where the Semi is at. How many have made it out the door if any. (batteries)
Is the Roadster getting close? (batteries)
What's holding back Cybertruck? (can you guess.... batteries)
We need to see these vehicles before Model Zero can even think about getting in the queue for.... wait for it.... batteries.
If you can't tell I still think the most outstanding obstacle is batteries. The second is probably actual humans to design, build, deliver.
If 4680 issues are resolved then it's on.
If a good path forward is evident and Macros are at a point to reverse this might be more like a canon than a coiled spring. Between now and then tho there isn't much to bring any light since Tesla is at the hush moment before earning. We are at the mercy of the hedgies and the whimsy of wall street. Hopefully we get a little bounce tomorrow to take this doom and gloom off. Options look like above $1000 is wanted this week but realistically THEY don't mind if it falls below. Those 1000 strike Puts will hurt but if they can churn between 995 and 1000, THEY can roll and balance with Calls..... then let it drop.
Sorry, a bit of a noob about this. Why do this rather than just buy shares? The DITM call will grow about the same as the share price, right?
Maybe? Most likely the calls are appreciate at a higher rate relative to SP.
Also, you tie up much less cash buying calls.
Leverage. LEAPS buyers would assume their investment will rise further than with shares to offset the premium paid.
Say you have $1M for Tesla. You can buy 1000 shares @ $1000 each, or buy 17 contracts of the Jan 2024 $500 LEAPS at today's end of day asking price of $587 per shares and 100 shares per contract..
If by Jan 2024 $TSLA is at $2000/share, then with the share purchase you would have $2M. But with LEAPS you would have 17 contracts each priced at $1500/share (100 shares per contract, and $2000/share - $500 strike=$1500 value) for a total value of $2,550,000.
So why DITM LEAPS? Most investors will not buy too many ATM or OTM LEAPS, especially if they got burned once with ATM/OTM TSLA LEAPS bought in the 2014 to 2016 period that mostly expired worthless. DITM LEAPS have much less risk even if TSLA stays flat for the next two years for whatever reason.
Edit: another difference for DITM calls is that some registered accounts in some brokerages allows selling of covered calls against them but not for ATM and OTM calls. This means selling a max of 17 weekly/monthly covered calls v.s. 10 for shares. Not advice.
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FFS, I just bought some STLD yesterday, partly on this rumor. It's still a good buy, but geez. Thanks Teslarati, you bunch of morons.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
"Decent track record", really? @tivoboy is a short-term trader who has missed out on much of the most profitable moves Tesla has made since the lows of 2019. I ignored @tivoboy when he called for another 20% drop on June 3, 2019 and, instead, doubled my already substantial TSLA long position the next morning. I'm still holding those shares and they are worth millions of dollars more than they were when I ignored his fear-mongering negative commentary that we had another 20% down. It's the same story he's trying to sell us right now. Here's the June 3, 2019 post in question:I know you have a decent track record but that sounds incredibly unlikely given the ER we have coming next week?
Here's the chart from the period in question, the beginning of the biggest bull run Tesla has ever seen. The vertical line is the date of the post quoted above:
Anyone can preach doom and gloom and urge caution and be right some of the time. But people who do this when TSLA is trading at $36 ($180 pre-split) are going to miss the opportunity to build big positions with minimal risk. And that's how you build wealth by compounding gains. You snatch up values like this, not wait because some negative Nellie said there was no bottom in sight and the buy point was 20% lower when he really doesn't know what he's talking about.
Prophets are a dime a dozen and all of them are right some of the time, that's the law of averages. Because stocks have volatility. This kind of prediction is based on nothing less flimsy than technical analysis. Because no one really knows. The real money is made by looking far into the future when investing capital, not by predicting it might go down 20% more in the short-term. When I doubled my TSLA position at $36.80 on June 4, 2019, I knew it might go down 20% more but I bought anyway because I was looking at long-term value. Because there has not been a time in TSLA history when one could say it certainly wouldn't go down 20% more.
This time is no different. It very well could go down 20% from here, but I doubt it. No one really knows so avoid taking prophets under your wing. The market always looks scary when it's going down. As soon as it turns around and decides now is not the time, everything looks different. It happens suddenly. That's why taking the long-term approach is more profitable, more often, then trying to play the little moves.
Well, I bought on the rumor from last year and it has done really well, let's hope it continues to go up! Bought in at ~$36 12/2020
What is the point of writing deep in the money calls like this? Seems like a sneeze on any given Tuesday and your shares are called away.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I'll see you with PLL (Piedmont Lithium) and raise you with WKHS (Workhorse Group).
It still hurts.
I think he’s buying not selling. Market makers would be on the other end of that one.
mltv
Member
Just got the 10.9 update. Another leap forward. Turns are executed with more confidence and less jerks. A little more aggressive in the turns than how I do it but not causing any anxiety for me.
Pure comedy gold.
Please GM, install as many hydrogen tanks as you want (500 by 2025) to fast charge electric cars. Brilliant! Tesla battery backed Superchargers are so lame and inefficient by using solar or existing power from the grid. /s
Is there such a thing as a quad face palm? They just don't get it or this is purely free money they are spending from the Honda joint venture.
Automotive News: GM to launch hydrogen fuel cell generators for fast EV charging, mobile power.
www.autonews.com
Please GM, install as many hydrogen tanks as you want (500 by 2025) to fast charge electric cars. Brilliant! Tesla battery backed Superchargers are so lame and inefficient by using solar or existing power from the grid. /s
Is there such a thing as a quad face palm? They just don't get it or this is purely free money they are spending from the Honda joint venture.
Automotive News: GM to launch hydrogen fuel cell generators for fast EV charging, mobile power.
GM to launch hydrogen fuel cell generators for fast EV charging, mobile power
The power generators are designed to enable fast-charging capability for EVs without permanent charge points, the addition of affordable DC fast charging at gas stations without expanding the grid and mobile energy at military bases.
www.autonews.com
Oh so deep in the money calls like this was not written by an individual but by MM? Or was the seller of these calls extremely bearish on Tesla?
Typically sold by an MM at those levels. In fact, the vast majority of options contracts are sold by MMs.
I was just being kind StealthP3D, I simply buy shares and hold them very long term!
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