Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tivoboy]

The basics of what Elon was saying is people will pay 50-70k for a Y if they can farm it out for half that cost and then use the other half (clearly Uber will be all over as many as they can buy). So they can just produce a few million Ys and everybody will buy them. They don't need to add a ton of models nor go cheaper if they can just make the cost of ownership factors cheaper. Along with that Tesla will have their won fleet that people will just pay to use instead of buying their own car.

I always like to ask people this question when this topic comes up.. If YOU bought a 55-70K Model Y, would you really like for it to go out and pickup passengers daily, doing it‘s FSD, possibly having people vomit in the car, bring their pets, dirty shoes, eating, drinking in the car? The list goes on. Is that really how you’d like your 55-70K asset to be used? I guess at some point it matters in just how much $$ am I going to get daily, weekly, monthly, but if its MY regular car I don’t really know what %% of owners in this luxury category are really going to want to do that with their car.

And not to mention the obvious which is, I really don’t think FSD is going to actually be capable of any of this in CY2022.. A) I don’t think the technology will be there, reliability, safely or on even a limited adoption scale and B) I don’t know that they are ready at all to get the regulatory approval from this almost anywhere in the USA at this point, buy EOY 2022. As always, we’ll see.

I think the bigger news of any real value is that CT is probably a mid-late 2023 story. There area a lot of entrants in the truck space doing actual deliveries and ramping deliveries now who are going to get that first mover advantage and traction before Tesla. from what Elon said, I don’t see CT trying to compete in that space, possibly due to price - the EV medium duty Truck space, but it’ll sure be interesting what that looks like in Mid 2023 when GM, Ford and possibly STLA are putting EV trucks on the road by EOY 2022 and early 2023.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

id prefer the main narrative be unadulterated explosive growth, built upon their fundamental strengths (engineering, ops, logistics)

and, bonus, 4680 in the products right now, since that is the future foundation of products.

- let fsd/robotaxi and optimus be the whip cream on top, a year or whatever time is needed down the road

You don't get narrative with Tesla. Or advertising. It's delightful.

 

[Sancho]

1. We plan on making greater than 50% more cars this year.
2. We don’t anticipate any supply issues (batteries or chips) preventing us from achieving that
3. We can keep the sticker price where it is and sell every car we make this year
4. Our margins will continue to improve throughout the year.
5. This will be a big year for our energy business too.
6. FSD is the biggest free option attached to a share of stock in the history of the world. A significant piece of that value may get unlocked this year.

Bullish AF. Everything else is noise.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon going full no babies = end of civilization. Optimus more important than all other cars in the pipeline. Interesting!

Yeah, about that. That'd be the end of civilization on Mars... Elon needs the 'bots to build his colony, human's are too fragile, too expensive, breath too much oxygen, and are too unproductive to work on Mars.

Meanwhile, in Shanghai at least, human workers will outperform bots for the forseeable future. Berlin? Still TBD.

Ceres!

 

[tivoboy]

id prefer the main narrative be unadulterated explosive growth, built upon their fundamental strengths (engineering, ops, logistics)

and, bonus, 4680 in the products right now, since that is the future foundation of products.

- let fsd/robotaxi and optimus be the whip cream on top, a year or whatever time is needed down the road

I’ll just, I heard “pre production” and that doesnt’ mean an early version of production. Could be a prototype of the production model.. I’d LOVE to see 4680 coming this QTR, and I’ll have to go back to the transcript but I thought that person said “this year”.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I always like to ask people this question when this topic comes up.. If YOU bought a 55-70K Model Y, would you really like for it to go out and pickup passengers daily, doing it‘s FSD, possibly having people vomit in the car, bring their pets, dirty shoes, eating, drinking in the car? The list goes on. Is that really how you’d like your 55-70K asset to be used? I guess at some point it matters in just how much $$ am I going to get daily, weekly, monthly, but if its MY regular car I don’t really know what %% of owners in this luxury category are really going to want to do that with their car.

And not to mention the obvious which is, I really don’t think FSD is going to actually be capable of any of this in CY2022.. A) I don’t think the technology will be there, reliability, safely or on even a limited adoption scale and B) I don’t know that they are ready at all to get the regulatory approval from this almost anywhere at this point, but EOY 2022. As always, we’ll see.

I think the bigger news of any real value is that CT is probably a mid-late 2023 story. There area a lot of entrants in the truck space doing actual deliveries and ramping deliveries now who are going to get that first mover advantage and traction before Tesla. from what Elon said, I don’t see CT trying to compete in that space - the EV medium duty Truck space, but it’ll sure be interesting what that looks like in Mid 2023 when GM, Ford and possibly STLA are putting EV trucks on the road by EOY 2022 and early 2023.

You're still here?

 

[Discoducky]

I do not know if it is a Google, or YouTube, or Tesla I.R. team that is in charge of the subtitles for the conference call video but -

for me, a magnificent confidence-builder in Tesla's AI program, whether Dojo or not, would be to have IT in charge of creating those subtitles. If it can 99.xxxxx% correctly write what esp. Mr Musk is saying, then driving through Mumbai's rush hour or my typical herd of winter-zombie caribou will be a piece of cake.

Gauntlet thrown down! Respond to that, Tesla!

PSA.
Eventually, Youtube will process Rob's livestream of the call and pump out CC's (Closed Captions). Those are created with a speech to text AI model that was trained on TPUs and runs inference on TPUs (these are Google's in-house custom AI ASIC's; along the same lines as the Dojo chips/cluster/supercomputer)

 

[Nocturnal]

I think we can start putting the key man risk to bed. Zach will be the next CEO.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yeah, he send that tweet way back on Dec 3, 2021. A lot didn't happen since then... he could have skipped.

Elon should hire a script writer, these mad-libs aren't informative. Nothing new today from the "roadmap".

He did give us a product road map, it just wasn’t what we were hoping. He made it quite clear we aren’t going to see any new products in 2022, and then 2023 will only see what’s already been announced, Cybertruck, Roadster and Semi. And forget about the $25K car (which YouTube vloggers like The Electric Viking have been hyping). Considering all the speculation, quashing all the rumors was at least useful.

Also interesting was the answer to the question, how are you going to ship 3.2Mcars in 2024 with two models (plus a bit from Cybertruck). Elon basically said, yep, FSD will ensure we‘ll have demand for 2.5M Model Y and 3.

 

[ZeApelido]

Meanwhile Gordon and other negative nancies latest claim is that Tesla is only surviving because they are delaying paying bills.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486471613126111234

 

[Boomer19]

I’ll just, I heard “pre production” and that doesnt’ mean an early version of production. Could be a prototype of the production model.. I’d LOVE to see 4680 coming this QTR, and I’ll have to go back to the transcript but I thought that person said “this year”.

Y starting with 4680 and structural pack made at kato road. shipped to austin


- starting delivery fairly soon (elons opening statements)

4680 in test Y’s out of austin. (later in call drew B said he was driving one )

drew then said first 4680 deliveries this quarter hopefully.

 

[Mengy]

That was an unusual and surprising conference call. It did NOT go anywhere near the way I expected it to.

- No CT until well into 2023?
- Not working on the $25K car at all right now?!!?
- FSD solved in late 2022??!?!? (I don't believe this....)
- 50% production growth in 2022 EVEN WITHOUT the two new factories??!??!

I was very disappointed in the product roadmap regarding the CT and Model "2", yet much of what was said is Super Bullish from an investor point of view.

I think I'm going to need some time to digest it a bit.

 

[ZeApelido]

"The best product roadmap is no product roadmap" - Elon Musk.

 

[GOVA]

The 25K car questions have been formulated terribly wrong. Elon even said that. Once somebody asks about 25K car and Tesla in fact is working on 25.24K car, Elon is not obigated to answer this question. LOL. This has been going on for months now.

 

[tivoboy]

Y starting with 4680 and structural pack out of austin.
- starting delivery fairly soon (elons opening statements)

4680 in test Y’s out of austin. (later in call)

Can’t wait!.. does anyone have the actual performance data for what a 4680 pack delivers in range/Whr/Mile/changing efficiency?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So scrapping the $25k car and comments about hvac as being some day, makes me think that a very large portion of their R&D is now focused on Optimus.

I suspect spending is much more focused on FSD. Didn't Andrei tell us recently that they have 2,000 human "Labelers" working in the FSD training program. Bay area employees aren't cheep...

Too bad the "not-a-roadmap" didn't mention a word about DOJO (just the 'this year in Jerusalem' line again). The lack of relevent detail was noticable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It shot to 970 off the safely >50% growth comment.

Yup, that's where the road(map) should have ended.

 

[Discoducky]

"The best product roadmap is no product roadmap" - Elon Musk.

My thoughts are that even though Tesla predicted Model Y to be the best selling car ever,

they STILL underestimated demand.

Also, CT is sounding more and more like Model X ramp (a freakishly large amount of new tech is hard to bring to production).

 

[Cosmacelf]

I suspect spending is much more focused on FSD. Didn't Andrei tell us recently that they have 2,000 human "Labelers" working in the FSD training program. Bay area employees aren't cheep...

Too bad the "not-a-roadmap" didn't mention a word about DOJO (just the 'this year in Jerusalem' line again). The lack of relevent detail was noticable.

I doubt the labelers are working in the Bay Area.

 

[tivoboy]

I suspect spending is much more focused on FSD. Didn't Andrei tell us recently that they have 2,000 human "Labelers" working in the FSD training program. Bay area employees aren't cheep...

Too bad the "not-a-roadmap" didn't mention a word about DOJO (just the 'this year in Jerusalem' line again). The lack of relevent detail was noticable.

When they did the Dojo call last year, didn’t they say this was off shored?