Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Dave with a new video talking about today.

Really good video with Gary Black. Explains valuation methods and why things like FSD and Robots are difficult for analysts to put a number on (and no clue on TAM - the market), so they haven't been priced in yet. Glad to see Gary did not change his 1,600 price target.

 

[Mengy]

This just came out. Mary riding Cruise in SF in middle of the night!

Let’s invite her to ride in a Tesla with FSD during daylight, shall we?

Is Cruise like Waymo where they have remote operators monitoring the cars in case they get into trouble?

 

[woodisgood]

Common false narrative pushed by climate deniers, and not even close to being true (climate is weather over 20 years).

Man Announces He Will Quit Drinking by 2050 — The Shovel

He has assured friends it will not affect his drinking plans in the short or medium term.

www.theshovel.com.au

This is why climate deniers (read Big Oil) funds anti-Tesla media FUD, and spends huge sums money shorting the stock: they are deathly afraid of the effect that switching to sustainable energy will have on their profits.

Sad, in a sick, twisted sort of way.

Sorry I didn’t think I needed the /s. My heart sank during yesterday‘s call not for all the stuff that is being discussed but because I felt, listening to Elon helplessly explain we‘re waiting on fabs, we’ve lost approximately a year in this fight.

Again, mission, not business.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Really good video with Gary Black. Explains valuation methods and why things like FSD and Robots are difficult for analysts to put a number on (and no clue on TAM - the market), so they haven't been priced in yet. Glad to see Gary did not change his 1,600 price target.

This is the exact same sentiment I was sharing before. Definitely agree, the call transitioned the story from a high confidence 50% + growth to a lower confidence 50%+ growth, which justifiably took the stock price down. It doesn't change the end outcome, in that if FSD comes out it's game over the stock is going to the moon. But it makes the ride to the end a lot bumpier, which makes me think we're in a multi-year holding pattern.

 

[Boomer19]

good interview @DaveT

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is the exact same sentiment I was sharing before. Definitely agree, the call transitioned the story from a high confidence 50% + growth to a lower confidence 50%+ growth, which justifiably took the stock price down. It doesn't change the end outcome, in that if FSD comes out it's game over the stock is going to the moon. But it makes the ride to the end a lot bumpier, which makes me think we're in a multi-year holding pattern.

I think the market responds to FSD once there are metrics established on the business model, and that only takes one city. So early adoption and any cash flow from robotaxi could launch the stock once the preliminary data is entered. I see that happening this year, but I'm an Optimus

 

[ZeApelido]

Not Fun Fact:

Today Tesla lost more in market cap and share price than it was worth in total anytime in 2019 or earlier.

 

[woodisgood]

Not Fun Fact:

Today Tesla lost more in market cap and share price than it was worth in total anytime in 2019 or earlier.

I like it better when you try to draw memes.

 

[Dutchie]

Largest drop in my portfolio since I measured. A couple of years ago I would have been starting to get nervous about this especially in combination with a lot of FUD added to it. Now I shrug it off - been there, seen it before. Wouldn’t be surprised If we would see a reversal tomorrow for the same amount.

I think Elon is right. People don’t understand the FSD and the effect it will have in using the car and transportation in general. I think a lot of posters here also don’t get it. We all understand that Elon’s timeline is off, however, he is getting better at it lately. Don’t forget, he knows much more than we do. He works with FSD team every day. He has seen the latest iteration of FSD. He is on an earnings call and he is extremely positive about FSD. Besides that, you are not allowed to make false statements on these calls. I am extremely bullish and excited for the coming months. Hopefully we will get FSD beta soon here in Canada too.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Largest drop in my portfolio since I measured. A couple of years ago I would have been starting to get nervous about this especially in combination with a lot of FUD added to it. Now I shrug it off - been there, seen it before. Wouldn’t be surprised If we would see a reversal tomorrow for the same amount.

I think Elon is right. People don’t understand the FSD and the effect it will have in using the car and transportation in general. I think a lot of posters here also don’t get it. We all understand that Elon’s timeline is off, however, he is getting better at it lately. Don’t forget, he knows much more than we do. He works with FSD team every day. He has seen the latest iteration of FSD. He is on an earnings call and he is extremely positive about FSD. Besides that, you are not allowed to make false statements on these calls. I am extremely bullish and excited for the coming months. Hopefully we will get FSD beta soon here in Canada too.

It would def surprise me if we saw a reversal tomorrow for the same amount

 

[WADan]

Largest drop in my portfolio since I measured. A couple of years ago I would have been starting to get nervous about this especially in combination with a lot of FUD added to it. Now I shrug it off - been there, seen it before. Wouldn’t be surprised If we would see a reversal tomorrow for the same amount.

I think Elon is right. People don’t understand the FSD and the effect it will have in using the car and transportation in general. I think a lot of posters here also don’t get it. We all understand that Elon’s timeline is off, however, he is getting better at it lately. Don’t forget, he knows much more than we do. He works with FSD team every day. He has seen the latest iteration of FSD. He is on an earnings call and he is extremely positive about FSD. Besides that, you are not allowed to make false statements on these calls. I am extremely bullish and excited for the coming months. Hopefully we will get FSD beta soon here in Canada too.

I think Elon is putting his credibility on the line with FSD. We‘ve been making excuses for him being optimistic on the timeline, but that is wearing thin. Can’t keeping on saying “it’s here it’s here” too many times.
I do hope he’s right, but I have serious doubt. Don’t shoot me, but we have to be realistic!

 

[heltok]

This just came out. Mary riding Cruise in SF in middle of the night!

Let’s invite her to ride in a Tesla with FSD during daylight, shall we?

Cute video. One difference between her and Elon:
1. She said that robotaxi will reduce congestion
2. Elon said that robotaxi lowering the price will lead to increased use which will increase congestion

So here we have an opportunity to decide which CEO we believe has thought through robotaxi the most to understand its implication.

 

[phantasms]

If we’re honest with ourselves we can remember how well TSLA was holding up relatively well to the plummeting Nasdaq in the weeks and days leading up to the call. Now that it didn’t destroy expectations like some thought it might it’s got some catching up to do. They did marvelously of course and even better when taking the one time expenses out but the call honestly wasn’t that great. I drive FSD Beta and I totally get Elon’s side of things but I can also totally see how the street didn’t think it was so great. I’ve been happily buying calls all day. We’ll get through this my friends.

 

[Tyler34]

If we’re honest with ourselves we can remember how well TSLA was holding up relatively well to the plummeting Nasdaq in the weeks and days leading up to the call. Now that it didn’t destroy expectations like some thought it might it’s got some catching up to do. They did marvelously of course and even better when taking the one time expenses out but the call honestly wasn’t that great. I drive FSD Beta and I totally get Elon’s side of things but I can also totally see how the street didn’t think it was so great. I’ve been happily buying calls all day. We’ll get through this my friends.

Since Jan 3rd
TSLA down > 30%
QQQ down ~15%

How far down does TSLA have to go for it to "catch up?"

 

[Speedr117]

Cute video. One difference between her and Elon:
1. She said that robotaxi will reduce congestion
2. Elon said that robotaxi lowering the price will lead to increased use which will increase congestion

So here we have an opportunity to decide which CEO we believe has thought through robotaxi the most to understand its implication.

To me, the biggest takeaway was that the CEO of GM, who majority owns Cruise, had never been in the product until that evening (i.e. self driving car)! How is that possible?!?!

 

[ZachF]

Since Jan 3rd
TSLA down > 30%
QQQ down ~15%

How far down does TSLA have to go for it to "catch up?"

Since this date last year, both Tesla and the Nasdaq are essentially unchanged.

Adjusted for inflation, it’s a -7% return.

(If you’re a euro the dollar has gained about 10% since then)

 

[Cherry Wine]

 

[MC3OZ]

Related to Elon's tweet today, do we actually know the composition of the 4680 cells that Tesla is making at Kato Rd. and Austin?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486821592533544971

Battery Day mentions a cathode being 2/3 Nickel 1/3 manganese, that seems to be what they are most likely to be using for Model Y.

If Elon is talking about scaling to really high to really high volume with relatively low costs cells I doubt they are using 2/3 Nickel.

This is another alternative:-

Lithium ion manganese oxide battery - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

LMNO is probably a more a likely candidate.

Limiting factor asked a good question, but Elon dodged it.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Since this date last year, both Tesla and the Nasdaq are essentially unchanged.

Adjusted for inflation, it’s a -7% return.

HA! Well, thanks to my trading I'm way ahead of -7%! I'll just leave it to you to decipher what I mean by "ahead"...

 

[Skryll]

TDA just showed a note that the stock of TSLA is trading down because Q4 earnings report would have noted its factories have been running below capacity for several quarters due to supply chain issues, which are likely to continue throughout 2022.

So what does that say about the value of the company that even with that restriction they are having massive free cashflow? SMH