Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

The next 5-6 trading days seem like they're shaping up to be critical for determining the trajectory of the market as a whole for the short term...bear market, or recovery rally?

Earnings calls aren't there to pump up the stock price, satisfy short-term traders, or reiterate things covered in the letter. Earnings calls exist to provide additional details and to answer questions/alleviate concerns from long-term investors.

That's fair. However, management (Elon) should make efforts to at least be more clear. That he had to clarify, via Twitter today, a statement that I would argue has clearly spooked investors speaks volumes and illustrates that fact. No one's asking them to pump the stock (as far as I can tell); however, if they could just not help tank it through statements that are clear as mud that would be great...

 

[mrmage]

But my friend emptied credit line to go all in at $5500 pre-split price, just couple weeks ago...
Do you think your argument will comfort her?

My TSLA portfolio went down 30% in 2019 before turning around. We all pay our dues. If it was easy and risk free, everyone would be doing it.

 

[WADan]

You know you guys can sell, right? If you don't like Elon's scattered tone there's always GM, they're right on point with every presentation!

STOP. STOP. please STOP telling people to sell (Yes, we know). Let‘s just be honest to acknowledge when things are not going well, so it can be done better (especially, when it’s just the messaging/communication)!

 

[Krugerrand]

STOP. STOP. please STOP telling people to sell (Yes, we know). Let‘s just be honest to acknowledge when things are not going well, so it can be done better (especially, when it’s just the messaging/communication)!

So, you think things aren’t going well with Tesla? *guffaw* *pig snort* Sure. Okay.

 

[traxila]

But my friend emptied credit line to go all in at $5500 pre-split price, just couple weeks ago...
Do you think your argument will comfort her?

She bought at her own risk for the long term, correct?

I got my investments wiped out completely with the Model 3 ramp debacle. Whose fault was it?

Mine.

Tell her to deal with it. If she holds on she should probably be doing great in 2023. Or not. Also borrowing to buy stocks is not wise.

 

[RobDickinson]

Tesla
- we've 2 new factories already manufacturing veh8icles just waiting for legal rubber stamps
- 1.2m run rate with the current 2 factories was parts supply restricted
- 4680s will be in vehicles this Q
- Order book is swamped so much we dont have time for new cars/products and we cant change this for at least a year with 2 new massive factories ramping
- BTW we make an industry leading 30% margin and growing near 90% PA

World - oh that all sounds bad!

 

[dww12]

Ark bought a little on the dip.

 

[Boomer19]

So, you think things aren’t going well with Tesla? *guffaw* *pig snort* Sure. Okay.

pssst…shhhh…let everyone keep fighting.

(don’t you know the closer we get to internal chaos, the closer we are to an unwind of the short leverage, and KABOOM! off to the races again…don’t derail the natural order of things)

peak infighting = bottom stock price

(edit - and this should be understood…please don’t get to the point where we harm each other!)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Doesn’t TSLA usually move 2x-3x to QQQ?

TSLA's Beta (5Y Monthly) is currently 1.98 (that implies it historicall has moved 1.98x the NASDAQ-100)

Maybe we’re there now, maybe another 15%.

IMO Hedgies will target the 200-day Moving Average next. It's their version of 'moving goalposts'.

Nearly back their now: (then they'll try to pin the SP to the MA(200), again, just like Spring 2021).

 

[bkp_duke]

Earnings calls aren't there to pump up the stock price, satisfy short-term traders, or reiterate things covered in the letter. Earnings calls exist to provide additional details and to answer questions/alleviate concerns from long-term investors.

Go watch Dave T's youtube video today where he is talking with Gary Black. Zach K did a great job updating investors and "providing additional details".

Elon in many questions refused to answer and instead kept going back to vague "FSD this and FSD that" comments. That's great for the 50,000 ft view, but investors want details, enough so that they can work on their models for financials, especially financials beyond 2022 when it is a company like Tesla who's share price depends upon that long-term future growth. Elon made that opaque, not clear.

LITERALLY, per Gary Black, the drop today was because many portfolio managers had to sharpen their pencils and remove the 25,000 car from their calculations, because Elon said they aren't doing it anytime soon.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

She bought at her own risk for the long term, correct?

I got my investments wiped out completely with the Model 3 ramp debacle. Whose fault was it?

Mine.

Tell her to deal with it. If she holds on she should probably be doing great in 2023. Or not. Also borrowing to buy stocks is not wise.

Why such tone?
Did she do something to you?

 

[Singuy]

Probably just all pre-determined per technical trading. All competitor Ev makers and auto should be celebrating that Tesla is not coming out with a 25k car or cybertruck anytime soon but everyone is down, evs being hit through hardest. So us here trying to find a reason is probably all not the right one.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

STOP. STOP. please STOP telling people to sell (Yes, we know). Let‘s just be honest to acknowledge when things are not going well, so it can be done better (especially, when it’s just the messaging/communication)!

How could things possibly be going any better? As Elon clearly articulated, it was physically impossible to build more at greater margins in 2021.

You folks need to focus less on what hedge funds think TSLA is worth and more what TMC knows it's worth. That report could not have been better.

 

[RobDickinson]

LITERALLY, per Gary Black, the drop today was because many portfolio managers had to sharpen their pencils and remove the 25,000 car from their calculations, because Elon said they aren't doing it anytime soon.

Which is pretty stupid but not a surprise.

Tesla can only grow so fast, if they can carry on selling a higher price car with more margin and profit why start selling the lower price car?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

My TSLA portfolio went down 30% in 2019 before turning around. We all pay our dues. If it was easy and risk free, everyone would be doing it.

Mine was 93% down in Feb '16
Now I'm retired on TSLA. So I get it.
These are all well understood facts...
She will hold.
We've had that talk.

 

[bkp_duke]

Which is pretty stupid but not a surprise.

Tesla can only grow so fast, if they can carry on selling a higher price car with more margin and profit why start selling the lower price car?

I understand the rationale, I'm saying you MUST give the finance guys enough details to model it. When Elon just brushes the question aside so that they can't do that . . . yeah.

Plus, didn't Elon tweet to say he was going to be on the call to give a product roadmap update? That was a piss-poor roadmap update.

 

[IdahoRenegade]

Probably just all pre-determined per technical trading. All competitor Ev makers and auto should be celebrating that Tesla is not coming out with a 25k car or cybertruck anytime soon but everyone is down, evs being hit through hardest. So us here trying to find a reason is probably all not the right one.

Competitors have to recognize that TSLAs EPS was up 217% YoY, they have a 29.4% gross margin on autos, sales up 70% and 4680 cells and structural battery packs, which they don't have, are real. And TSLAs manufacturing capacity is more than doubling with Austin and Berlin (granted ramping involved). Oh, and Freemont, their oldest, least efficient plant is NOT at capacity-and is still the most productive auto plant in the US. If I were GM or Ford, I would be very afraid.

 

[RobDickinson]

Oh it wasnt the update we all wanted but why should Elon take time to fix some analysts broken flawed model?

 

[bkp_duke]

Oh it wasnt the update we all wanted but why should Elon take time to fix some analysts broken flawed model?

There was no product update, that's my point. The model flows from that.

 

[RobDickinson]

The update was no new products?