I think people see recession and runs for the hills. Most recessions result from demand side recession. High unemployment due to some kind of trauma to the economy which results in tightening spending from individuals with employment uncertainty. Many measures need to help stimulate the economy to increase demand for goods so companies can keep growing their earnings. If not, then it's a negative feedback loop in which the less demand for your good, the more people you laid off resulting in less demand for your goods. You see how the market can react negatively to this as it doesn't seem transitory and requires some major work to get out of the slump.
The recession I am looking at today is most likely a supply side recession due to supply chain issues. This is different than the supply side recession we had due to high unemployment rate in the 70s. Demand for goods are high as company raise prices and seem to phase no one. Everyone who wants a job has a job, and companies are begging you to take a job. Everyone is ramping up production and prices which is having companies hitting record profits, gearing for a massive economy EXPANSION vs contraction. And we know where the supply chain issues are and see a light at the end of that tunnel as the market is forward looking. Ports cannot be blocked forever, and everyone is guiding for an ease of supply chain issue starting 1H of 2023.
This is why I am sticking to the 2 quarters of slightly negative GDP and then some positive GDP numbers going forward...aka a recession with a bull rally.
