Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

It’s false because Lightning is very inferior to Cybertruck, so the demand will not be as good.

Let's ignore than we don't actually know final CT specs or price- let's just assume they're WAY better than Fords.

Let's also ignore some buyers really do care about a traditional look versus a radical redesign and will buy accordingly. Let's just assume there's plenty in both groups.



Doing that, we're still stuck with Elon having told us they're aspirationally targeting 250k a year production.

Which is 1/3rd-1/4 of the # of F-150s Ford is already selling today. Not counting the millions of OTHER ICE trucks sold by other brands each year.


So there's no reason to claim it's "false"

Tesla will sell every CT they can make- for years.

Ford will sell every lightning they can make- for years.

Even if Ford was making as many Lightnings as Tesla hopes to make CTs- they'd both sell all they can make (and would both sell more if they made more).


Demand for decent EVs exceeds supply. And will, for years.


Fords problem isn't demand for EVs.

A Ford lightning doesn't need to "steal" a cybertruck sale (nor is it likely to).

Fords problem (apart from being years late realizing battery supply is important) is that a lightning sale is MOST likely to steal an ICE F-150 sale- Which is where virtually all their profit is from.... BEST case for Ford is it instead steals an ICE Dodge or GM truck sale.... at least long enough for them to get more profit built into their Lightning BOM.

 

[AudubonB]

For some bizarre reason, I need to put in my own hand here: I am NOT abiding any more discussions here of world news that is not Tesla.
The worst offenders of all are those who have acknowledged “This is OT but…..”

 

[2daMoon]

This isn't OT, but...

Lars' Sunday News has a wrap up of this week's Tesla and SpaceX happenings. As well as one advantage of owning an ICE vehicle at the end.

 

[jbcarioca]

Several recent posts have made some fundamental factual errors, from good intentions perhaps, but still serious errors. A few examples:
- one otherwise prudent poster discusses LG prismatic, when LG almost entirely supplies pouch cells;
-another seems to think CATL has no significant technological advantages;
-yet another seemingly thinks all Teslas should have the same batteries, otherwise risk "Osborning";
- Then there is repeated misunderstanding of form factor and the consequences of such choices.

I recommend two sources for level setting:
First, The Tesla Battery Day Video;
Second, The Limiting Factory battery series (good detail, understandable without technical skills)
Third, The websites of Panasonic, CATL, BYD, LG
I do not provide links because a simple search will find all of those easily. That is pretty minimal due diligence.
If we cannot do that, why post at all /s

Several specific egregious ones fail to understand the basic understanding of different chemistries impact on optimal form factors in different applications.

Examples:
BYD Blade technology is very cheap, very stable and permits easy cell-to-pack and has chemistry well optimized. Elon tweets support.
CATL is not only a cell-to-pack pioneer, but has huge r&d and is now testing a new chemistry that may have nearly revolutionary impact. Elon and CATL head are regarded as 'kindred spirits. They build prismatic, mostly.
LG and Panasonic both are known to be producing 4680's in test for Tesla. Chemistry undisclosed.
We all need to understand that 4680 form factor has some huge advantages fro many applications, but other form factors will be used for other applications. Among other things chemistry affects form factor.

Every one who posts about batteries should learn such basics. There is much to debate, much immediately relevant to production, gross margins, reliability, BMS, structural packs and more.

I hope this post will help encourage more people to learn about this gigantic competitive advantage of Tesla.
For certain I am NOT an expert; I'm learning as quickly as I can.

 

[petit_bateau]

Several recent posts have made some fundamental factual errors, from good intentions perhaps, but still serious errors. A few examples:
- one otherwise prudent poster discusses LG prismatic, when LG almost entirely supplies pouch cells;

Ooops, my mistake, thanks for correcting me as I do indeed mean the duff LG pouches. I must have a fuddled brain today as I know what they are.

 

[jbcarioca]

Ooops, my mistake, thanks for correcting me as I do indeed mean the duff LG pouches. I must have a fuddled brain today as I know what they are.

Indeed these things seem to be 'error prone'. Not only Bolt, but there are some not well-disclosed problems in BMS systems in some LG applications, such as Porsche Taycan, have allegedly had charging controller difficulties with AC charging that caused fires. These days LG pouch users seem very cautious so problems have been evident, apparently, even with older Volvo XC 40 Recharge models. Right now both Porsche and Volvo are moving to other suppliers with both choosing CATL for some applications (volvo now for China built models). Both are participants in the Northvolt project (Porsche through VAG) among others.
LG seems to be working hard to improve, not least to justify their newfound public status but also to satisfy Tesla, with a 4680 test line allegedly producing now although there's almost no detail available. Many questions, hints, but not firm answers.

Battery IPO leaves LG Chem low on power

LG Chem's battery-making business has electrified investors, but what's left fails to impress. The South Korean group and its subsidiary, LG Energy Solution, raised 12.8 trillion won ($10.8 billion) in the country's largest ever initial public offering after pricing shares at the top of the...

www.reuters.com

 

[hobbes]

A while ago it was reported that Tesla Automation in Germany (Ex Grohmann Automation acquired by Tesla years ago) started construction of a new building. This seems to be finished and lots of equipment can be seen outside.

Could be anything, but the article speculates it could be machines for 4680 production and/or drive train production. IMHO the latter does not really make sense because the building for drive units in Grünheide has been ready for a while, so why not ship it there? Maybe the automation experts are getting extra machines just for optimization though that never go into production? Unlikely as it would seem like these machines are in short supply at the moment.

Shortly after acquisition people from Grohmann helped getting pack production at Giga Nevada running so structural battery pack production might also be a good guess.

Mini-Gigafactory von Tesla in der Eifel fertig – Anlagen für große Schwester stehen bereit

Ein neues Gebäude im Format einer Mini-Gigafactory bei Teslas deutscher Automation-Tochter scheint Anlagen an die große Schwester zu liefern.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

EDIT:

This seems to be the original source of the footage

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492794593053757442

He says the equipment is "ready to be shipped" which would mean going away - someone asked why he thinks that, hope we get a reply..

 

[RobDickinson]

If any factory needs 4680 machines it would be Berlin right? Their cell building is still under construction, Austin is finished and has installed 4680 lines.

A for drivetrain machines, just because the building is finished doesnt mean all the space inside is filled, they could have set up 1 line to go for start and be adding lines 2-4 etc later

 

[hobbes]

If any factory needs 4680 machines it would be Berlin right? Their cell building is still under construction, Austin is finished and has installed 4680 lines.

A for drivetrain machines, just because the building is finished doesnt mean all the space inside is filled, they could have set up 1 line to go for start and be adding lines 2-4 etc later

Cell building in Berlin is not finished yet so probably too early to put the machines there. But I have to admit putting them somewhere else first and then moving doesn´t make much sense either.

I was reported a week or two ago that they are still missing the machinery for drive train and have to import for the time being, so unlikely they already have a line set up.

The boxes could hold completely other stuff though, probably the speculation doesn´t get us anywhere at this point.

 

[RobDickinson]

They could move the cell machinery onto the Belin site until needed, much better than not having it ready, but yeah lots of speculation, I am sure there are many project managers with critical path stuff going on in the background

 

[UnknownSoldier]

When you look at the cell suppliers through Tesla's eyes you can see why they've needed to bring on CATL. The new Shanghai CATL is supposedly 80 GWh and was operating at 60% capacity at end 2021. That suggests that Tesla will be taking ~50% of CATL's 2022 production of ~160 GWh. But will they all go into vehicles ?

Vice versa, looking at Tesla through a cell supplier's eye the cell suppliers know they are no longer king maker. The Tesla Kato Rd pilot plant is supposedly capable of 10 GWh/yr, so approx 125,000 cars per year (~350 cars/day) of 80kWh packs. Then Austin is supposedly aiming for 100 GWh/yr (1.25m vehicles) and presumably Berlin and Shanghai will be similar. Note that LG will be hurting doing the replacements of all the faulty prismatics from last year for GM, Kia, Renault, etc (and where will the duds get repurposed to ?) so their momentum won't be good in 2022. And BYD mostly sells to itself. And then every other bar on that chart knows they are sitting in a factory that is not at a scale which wil be competitive for more than another year.

The news at 4680 batteries, what is the advantage? suggests that Tesla has one million cells produced so far at Kato Rd and stockpiled. Someone has done the maths and reckons that is enough for ~1,200 model Ys but I don't know how many 4680s go into a Y, so I can't check their calcs (yes, I'm lazy). If so this doesn't seem like a great deal - at what point did they get to the ~95% yields we see from the non-training machine (i.e. excluding the right-hand machine in that graphic). Because if we believe they 'only' have a million cells stockpiled, then that implies they've 'only' been in full-ish production for less than a week at Kato Rd. Clearly one does not wish to press the 'go' button on mass manufacturing until yields are at an acceptable level that one does not get swamped by rejects. Does anyone have any insight into (say) Panasonic yields in Sparks ?

If (say) in 2022 the Kato Rd plant and the Berlin and Shanghai and Austin can all get to 5-10 GWh each for total 2022 production, then that would be ~30 GWh total, or enough for 375,000 cars. That ought to allow Semis to start ramping 2023. That would mean Tesla was taking in the following cell streams for 2022, assuming no further growth from LG or Panasonic:
- Panasonic = 36
- CATL = 80
- LG = 14
- Tesla internal 4680 = 30
- TOTAL = 160 GWh i.e. enough for 2,000,000 vehicles at 80 kWh each

Put a different way if Tesla doesn't make 2m vehicles in 2022, then the 4 GWh of storage that Tesla shipped in 2021 ought to be dramatically exceeded in 2022. Is it possible to scale storage production by 10x in one year, from 4 GWh to 40 GWh ?

View attachment 768421

FWIW, I've read that 960 of the 4680's go into a pack for Model Y. The math then checks out, 1 million cells is indeed about 1,200 cars.

 

[insaneoctane]

Has anyone pieced together a comprehensive view of automobile manufacturers and their battery suppliers and firm factor/technology in an effort to see the battery warranty liability picture of the current and announced models? I feel this analysis is becoming more relevant than ever. Tesla appears to do significant homework and conservatively rolls out new battery tech (monitors charge rates and only increases after data supports). Other manufacturers appear to be moving more hastily, possibly resulting in costly recalls.

Would you not agree that moving too quickly here could easily result in warranty liabilities on scales never seen before? Tesla, who is more vertically integrated than any legacy auto, has more to lose here. Seems like a few more Bolt-LG style recalls could destroy companies? Wondering how concerning this is to others...

 

[RobDickinson]

80kwh ish per car thats around 96Mwh so not much overall, I'd assume they had a lot more than that if Kato is scaled to 10Gwh

 

[RobDickinson]

Has anyone pieced together a comprehensive view of automobile manufacturers and their battery suppliers and firm factor/technology in an effort to see the battery warranty liability picture of the current and announced models? I feel this analysis is becoming more relevant than ever. Tesla appears to do significant homework and conservatively rolls out new battery tech (monitors charge rates and only increases after data supports). Other manufacturers appear to be moving more hastily, possibly resulting in costly recalls.

Would you not agree that moving too quickly here could easily result in warranty liabilities on scales never seen before? Tesla, who is more vertically integrated than any legacy auto, has more to lose here. Seems like a few more Bolt-LG style recalls could destroy companies? Wondering how concerning this is to others...

Legacy Auto tend to buy in via spec sheets, if the supplied cells dont work or match up its the battery cell manufacturer footing the bill, like LG Chem with the bold and Kona etc

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Has anyone pieced together a comprehensive view of automobile manufacturers and their battery suppliers and firm factor/technology in an effort to see the battery warranty liability picture of the current and announced models? I feel this analysis is becoming more relevant than ever. Tesla appears to do significant homework and conservatively rolls out new battery tech (monitors charge rates and only increases after data supports). Other manufacturers appear to be moving more hastily, possibly resulting in costly recalls.

Would you not agree that moving too quickly here could easily result in warranty liabilities on scales never seen before? Tesla, who is more vertically integrated than any legacy auto, has more to lose here. Seems like a few more Bolt-LG style recalls could destroy companies? Wondering how concerning this is to others...

I've said before but when someone in real life reaches out to me asking about a Tesla or another EV, my response is "Put all your bias against Tesla or Elon aside. You might not like Elon as a person or you might not want a Tesla because it's the popular thing to do.....but you absolutely cannot trust an EV from a legacy auto maker. They're trying to rapidly catch up to Tesla in specs/range and by doing so, they have a huge financial inventive to be pushing battery from 3rd party suppliers harder than they should or taking shortcuts".

The Bolt battery issue has been an eye opener for some of those people and my response is "Told ya so".

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Legacy Auto tend to buy in via spec sheets, if the supplied cells dont work or match up its the battery cell manufacturer footing the bill, like LG Chem with the bold and Kona etc

I think it's very naive to think that GM wasn't pushing LG to compromise on stability in the cells in order to reach specs that could come at least somewhat close to a Mode 3.

LG is being made out to be the scapegoat while I'd put money on GM being part of the issue.

 

[dhanson865]

Has anyone pieced together a comprehensive view of automobile manufacturers and their battery suppliers and firm factor/technology in an effort to see the battery warranty liability picture of the current and announced models? I feel this analysis is becoming more relevant than ever. Tesla appears to do significant homework and conservatively rolls out new battery tech (monitors charge rates and only increases after data supports). Other manufacturers appear to be moving more hastily, possibly resulting in costly recalls.

Would you not agree that moving too quickly here could easily result in warranty liabilities on scales never seen before? Tesla, who is more vertically integrated than any legacy auto, has more to lose here. Seems like a few more Bolt-LG style recalls could destroy companies? Wondering how concerning this is to others...

Bolt-LG was pouch based. If additional pouch based issues tank a car company or two it only helps TSLA.

If you are saying you are worried about pouch based style issues happening in 16850/2170/4680 then I'm going to say don't worry, be happy.

Is there a warranty risk for other cell types? Yep, you betcha. But the accountants will cover that and it won't even come close to being an issue for TSLA financially.

They did stub their toe on the Model S packs back in the day. I trust they are hedging the bets a little more going forward.

 

[jbcarioca]

Has anyone pieced together a comprehensive view of automobile manufacturers and their battery suppliers and firm factor/technology in an effort to see the battery warranty liability picture of the current and announced models? I feel this analysis is becoming more relevant than ever. Tesla appears to do significant homework and conservatively rolls out new battery tech (monitors charge rates and only increases after data supports). Other manufacturers appear to be moving more hastily, possibly resulting in costly recalls.

Would you not agree that moving too quickly here could easily result in warranty liabilities on scales never seen before? Tesla, who is more vertically integrated than any legacy auto, has more to lose here. Seems like a few more Bolt-LG style recalls could destroy companies? Wondering how concerning this is to others...

There are several good sources, but all, like MarkLines, are VERY expensive, require inconvenient terms of use and are not terribly user-friendly. OTOH, they do have quite deep information resources including quite detailed supplier data. I have used one of these for a long time. Sadly, quoting them tends to produce expulsion or worse.

Warranty Week has very good warranty, recall and reserve data.

They are are getting better regarding BEV issues but have a long way to go.

 

[jbcarioca]

FWIW, I've read that 960 of the 4680's go into a pack for Model Y. The math then checks out, 1 million cells is indeed about 1,200 cars.

Factually nobody knows. The 960 guess is made by more than one person who seem knowledgeable. Still, there are many variable in play, so it’s still a guess.

 

[Ogre]

I've said before but when someone in real life reaches out to me asking about a Tesla or another EV, my response is "Put all your bias against Tesla or Elon aside. You might not like Elon as a person or you might not want a Tesla because it's the popular thing to do.....but you absolutely cannot trust an EV from a legacy auto maker. They're trying to rapidly catch up to Tesla in specs/range and by doing so, they have a huge financial inventive to be pushing battery from 3rd party suppliers harder than they should or taking shortcuts".

The Bolt battery issue has been an eye opener for some of those people and my response is "Told ya so".

If people are buying EVs it’s a lot better than not buying EVs.

Brand reliability and awareness takes time. Just let them buy a Mach E or whatever and discover for themselves whether they are reliable or not. That’s what made or broke automakers over the past 50+ years. Toyota was built on the backs of unreliable GM and Ford autos.