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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This ongoing discussion is ridiculous, as is your recollection of history, your continued insistence that Elon is a MAGA maniac for his frustrations with Fauci’s policies that Fauci himself has now admitted under oath were baseless, and your insistence that this discussion ends just after you get the last word. Both sides - Left and Right - took the advice of Fauci. And it was Trump’s policy implementation based on that recommendation that led to the shutdowns of 3.3 million businesses. And it was during that time - while Trump was president - that the Fremont plant was under attack by lawmakers for violating 6’ Social Distancing policies by staying open. Many of those businesses that closed their doors under Trump and stayed shut under Biden were never re-opened. Tesla could have easily been one of those casualties that originated while Trump was in office, but Elon leaned-in and kept Fremont open and it survived. Hindsight with the benefit of that recent testimony under oath suggests he did the right thing.

Elon under immense pressure bled on the sharp end of that spear for the greater good of Tesla. And Fremont and the company are still humming along nicely as a result of his efforts - which included him working at Fremont during that time - which is another reason I voted Yes with all my shares. (And no, I’m not wearing a MAGA hat either).

Fauci is about number 30 on the list of things.
 
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Which part, the second?
I want clean air. I've stated on here my number one reason for wanting the world to transition to electric cars and clean energy is I want to breath fresh air. I have a hard time believing the smut we pump into the air has a financial toll of 2.9T. It doesn't pass the, ehem, sniff test. I bet if you dug into the details of where that number came from, you would find it highly flawed. You're right though, I'm no expert.
Yah that number has to be way off. It's one of those categories of statistics where what seems to be a minor assumption, or likeey-seeming factor that isn't correct throws things off 30 percent or 300 percent etc.
The real number would be impossible to calculate. But it's not zero and it is substantial.
 
A DEAL IS A DEAL.
Anyone voting NO cannot be trusted anymore, since this SIMPLY means this person finds it fair to in retrospect void an already made deal.
Nothing more, nothing less.
Personal opinions about Musk: don't matter
Personal opinions about the compensation plan: don't matter.
It is a contract that was agreed upon by shareholders and voided by a 9-share-guy and a judge.

If someone cannot get these facts straight and take the right consequences, then I fear we are even more "advanced" in the wrong direction than I already knew.
There is nothing to void because there never was a contract. You can’t have a business deal when you’re negotiating with yourself. The Board blew it.
 
If Elon leaves, he's letting them win.
Which is why I strongly believe Elon will definitely NOT leave. Think of it from his POV:
  • Leaving will mean he isn't CEO when Cybertruck sales really take off, and allow him to demonstrate he was right, over all the people who hated the CT and predicted it to be a failure
  • Leaving will mean he does voluntarily what he was forced to do at paypal, which drove him crazy literally for decades. Makes no sense!
  • Leaving before FSD is an acknowledged reality. Again, he wants to be there when people are forced to acknowledge he was (eventually) right about FSD.
If the vote is against him, I expect some (rightly) very angry tweets, and some very very long term grudges held against banks or hedge funds that turned against him. I also think its then an absolute dead-cert that no part of any elon business ever floats on the markets again.
But leave the company? I think this is massively unlikely. However, there may be a short term SP drop, mostly manipulated, and fuelled by BS in the media or from people who do not know elon's temperament or his history regarding paypal.
 
"Externalities" would be ignored in a true Free Market. Manufactured externalities like leveling the playing field to deal with vehicle emissions, are the exact opposite of a free market.
Sorry but this is complete nonsense. I studied pure economics at the london school of economics, which was practically mecca for hard core free market advocates and capitalists. Externalities were constantly discussed when describing markets!
You are forgetting the 'market' part of free market. The market requires that all inputs and costs are accounted for. This requires a government, so you have contract law, property rights etc. Property rights require value to be placed on public goods such as rivers, the ocean, the air we breath etc. This is basic, basic stuff. Markets imply regulation, and correct, fair assignment of costs.

It feels like what you are describing is somalia, or some dystopian neal stephenson sci-fi future. Certainly not anywhere anyone would want to live or work.
Perhaps the concept of being able to drink the water and breath the air sounds like dirty socialism to you, but in that case, its is an extreme, extreme fringe view that the rest of the world would just laugh at.
 
Which is why I strongly believe Elon will definitely NOT leave. Think of it from his POV:
  • Leaving will mean he isn't CEO when Cybertruck sales really take off, and allow him to demonstrate he was right, over all the people who hated the CT and predicted it to be a failure
  • Leaving will mean he does voluntarily what he was forced to do at paypal, which drove him crazy literally for decades. Makes no sense!
  • Leaving before FSD is an acknowledged reality. Again, he wants to be there when people are forced to acknowledge he was (eventually) right about FSD.
If the vote is against him, I expect some (rightly) very angry tweets, and some very very long term grudges held against banks or hedge funds that turned against him. I also think its then an absolute dead-cert that no part of any elon business ever floats on the markets again.
But leave the company? I think this is massively unlikely. However, there may be a short term SP drop, mostly manipulated, and fuelled by BS in the media or from people who do not know elon's temperament or his history regarding paypal.
I would think / hope the contingency plan is being drafted by the BOD for this scenario that the comp plan gets voted down... i.e., at the annual meeting, they will either say:

1. it passes
2. it doesn't pass, but here is what we are going to do.... new comp plan of xyz

Is that unrealistic?

I probably should know, but don't know how much power the board has to pass something unilaterally or issue stock grants for item 2.
 
I would think / hope the contingency plan is being drafted by the BOD for this scenario that the comp plan gets voted down... i.e., at the annual meeting, they will either say:

1. it passes
2. it doesn't pass, but here is what we are going to do.... new comp plan of xyz

Is that unrealistic?

I probably should know, but don't know how much power the board has to pass something unilaterally or issue stock grants for item 2.
If the Board does not have a public statement and a contingency plan ready to go for each possible vote outcome, they should all be replaced immediately. These basic things should have been gamed out and refined for weeks now. I expect and assume they were. Any new plan should have been at least run by Elon in general terms.
Surely that has all happened at this point!?!
 
If the Board does not have a public statement and a contingency plan ready to go for each possible vote outcome, they should all be replaced immediately. These basic things should have been gamed out and refined for weeks now. I expect and assume they were. Any new plan should have been at least run by Elon in general terms.
Surely that has all happened at this point!?!
Probably not. No need to go there until after the appeal has been completed. (Unless they aren't planning on appealing the situation.)
 
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He used to have a Tesla. He's not against EVs, he's against subsidies and mandates to end sales of ICE cars. He's also against capping our fossil fuel production. In short, he favors free markets.

If he had a Tesla, it’s unlikely he ever drove it or even understand how it worked. And he certainly seems to be doing his best to undermine EVs.
The candidate, after spending quality time with Elon, held a rally this weekend where he:

“...made several false or misleading statements about electric vehicles in his speech:
  • There are no chargers.
  • Electric trucks weigh more than twice – triple as much as gasoline and diesel trucks
  • “they have to fix every bridge in the US to handle the weight”
  • Insinuates that electric boats would “sink because of their weight”
  • Implies that electric boats are a serious electrocution risk in the open ocean"

From a story today, where the unedited clips are available:
 
I was mostly impressed by WWDC, then I read:

Didn't think the ChatGPT integration was too bad, seemed like a very minor detail about Apple Intelligence. Is it really worse than appstore having ChatGPT?


I'm not sure he is. If it is really built into the OS, and has access to your private data, even if they really secure it on their end it will be banned from the company I work for as well. (Unless Apple signs a BAA, Business Associate Agreement, with us to take all responsibility for privacy and security of the data once it leaves company devices.)

As an FYI it took a long time for Apple devices with their new M processors to go through the security review and be approved for purchase and use on our network.

It is all great for a vendor to say it is private and secure, but when we send them the standard BAA and they see they have to take all legal responsibility, and liability, for the data they take possession of, a good number of them just walk away. (And that doesn't even cover the security review process, where they have to describe how they are keeping it secure and private.)

This sounds very much like the AI "Recall" feature that Microsoft announced, and has had to change course on because of the pushback.
 
Which part, the second?
I want clean air. I've stated on here my number one reason for wanting the world to transition to electric cars and clean energy is I want to breath fresh air. I have a hard time believing the smut we pump into the air has a financial toll of 2.9T. It doesn't pass the, ehem, sniff test. I bet if you dug into the details of where that number came from, you would find it highly flawed. You're right though, I'm no expert.

Just last week, heavy rain caused flooding in southern Germany, causing an estimated €2B in property damage. Last year July, a similar event caused damage in the range of €40B. Such calculations only account for what it takes to rebuild. Loss of lives and productivity and secondary damage to the environment from oil spills and the like go on top. The other extreme caused by climate change are draughts. About 20% of German trees are sick or already gone due to several consecutive hot, dry summers. And this in a country with moderate climate. The flood in Brazil last month left more than 600k people homeless. There are costs to the health system, for damage control, entire islands slowly drowning and how do you put a number on the effect on the oceans and wildlife in general?

And while a single event cannot be attributed to climate change, the frequency and magnitude can.

Fossil fuels are subsidized as long as the environmental damage is not fully priced in. Not much difference to a tax break for EVs.
 
I was mostly impressed by WWDC, then I read:

Didn't think the ChatGPT integration was too bad, seemed like a very minor detail about Apple Intelligence. Is it really worse than appstore having ChatGPT?
Elon is completely spazzing out on X with a whole bunch of incorrect assertions about what Apple announced today. Of course it should be noted that Elon is a direct to competitor to any company offering AI products, so natural for him to not look on competitors favorably, but stating blatantly wrong facts is a whole different level of behaviour.
 
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I'm not sure he is. If it is really built into the OS, and has access to your private data, even if they really secure it on their end it will be banned from the company I work for as well. (Unless Apple signs a BAA, Business Associate Agreement, with us to take all responsibility for privacy and security of the data once it leaves company devices.)

As an FYI it took a long time for Apple devices with their new M processors to go through the security review and be approved for purchase and use on our network.

It is all great for a vendor to say it is private and secure, but when we send them the standard BAA and they see they have to take all legal responsibility, and liability, for the data they take possession of, a good number of them just walk away. (And that doesn't even cover the security review process, where they have to describe how they are keeping it secure and private.)

This sounds very much like the AI "Recall" feature that Microsoft announced, and has had to change course on because of the pushback.
Strong agree. Many companies will adopt this view, for the same reasons (my company restricts use of Chat GPT today). The same may happen to Tesla depending on what data the AI uses within its cars, and eventually Optimus. While I might like to have an Optimus in my business or at home. I don’t want it recording all things and sending it back to Dojo for processing and anything else it wants to do with my business/personal data.

The whole issue of data privacy has pretty much been ignored in terms of regulation for consumers in the US. But it’s coming.
 
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It is 100% obvious & clear to anyone who actually watched the presentation that OpenAi/ChatGPT is in no way integrated into the OS, Apple is merely offering 3rd party models as an extra feature for external knowledge type queries (chatGPT is the first of many that will be available), basically the same as using the ChatGPT app on your phone. All the OS level integration is Apples own AI models that run on device or on Apples private cloud where needed.
I think that is a distinction without a difference. In either case your data is potentially leaving your device to be used/stored on someone else's servers.